Dow 8000
don’t ride this thing down. we’ve been doing it since 14200.
Why stop at 8000?
We should all be ashamed of ourselves for riding it down. But most of all our research depts should be fired for not telling us to trim down equities.
8000 is the next resistance level.
Then expect a LOT of buying. As for the research depts., you cant really trust them (i.e. Tech stocks, ARS, etc.) Im glad to do my own research and stick to the steak n potatoes approach, not the spam disguised as filet mignon.Could it be that we all, just like you, saw this coming? Our selling to get out before 8000 is exactly what is going on? Don’t we have to sell to get out? Doesn’t selling cause the market to go down? I know you guys are smart enough to realize that we can’t stop the market (just like a school bus) and all get off. Every professional advisor on this site knows fear and panic are understandable but they are not a very effective investment strategy. Not insulting anyone just a reminder that we are not hired to travel time or predict the future. We are hired because these times exist. They must exist. Without fear and uncertainty investment returns are zero (yes risk is what provides returns) and we are unnecessary and unemployed. I can guarantee everyone here that, when we least expect it, the markets will change. The real problem is that it can’t be proven until after it goes up and then it is too late to help our clients. If you have a plan for your clients do not let anything cause you to waiver. There are always winners and losers. We must make sure clients that get professional advice are the winners.
don’t ride this thing down. we’ve been doing it since 14200.
You are a moron.
Moron.
In our business, history doesn't tend to repeat itself, but it does seem to rhyme. So, if we look at this time frame six years ago when the markets bottomed out the last time, what would our clients have missed had they jumped out at the bottom?
The lowest close was on 10/9/2002 and its intraday low was on 10/10/2002. Here's what happened moving forward: DJIA S&P 500 10/9 Close 7286.27 776.76 10/10 Low 7177.66 768.67 10/10 Close (One Day Later) 7533.95 (+3.4%) 803.92 (+3.5%) 10/17 Close (One Week Later) 8275.04 (+13.6%) 879.20 (+13.2%) 11/03 Close (One Month Later) 8537.13 (+17.2%) 910.10 (+17.2%) 01/10 Close (Three Months Later) 8784.89 (+20.6%) 927.57 (+19.4%) 10/9 Close (One Year Later) 9680.01 (+32.8%) 1038.73 (+33.7%) How many of your clients who would have jumped out on 10/9 or 10/10 in 2002 would have been brave enough to jump back in a week, month, or even a full quarter later? Which is more painful, missing the turnaround or experiencing the decline? I'll quote Alan Skrainka - "Panic is not a good investment strategy"Experiencing the decline is always worse than missing the turnaround. Individual investors are scared, advisors are scared, institutions are scared. We are in the midst of a global crisis never seen before so no one knows what is going to happen, but to pretend things are going to get better because they have in the past does not make it an appropriate strategy either. Clients dont care what they make, its what they keep.
Lets look outside our office windows....Banks are frozen (some out of business), Insurance co are holding their breaths. THe US Gov't just put a tillion of new debt on our backs(IE higher taxes). Unemployment is about to spike in a very SCARY fashion. You think we have panic ...we are about to have pain and then grief....Bush can't handover the keys fast enough...
Is there a reason the market has tanked after the bailout, after the rate cut, Obama leading in the polls? Maybe there’s a rainbow around the corner…maybe the next thing the govt will come up with …lets wipe out all consumer debt and start over…kinda like a mulligan…The JOE SIXPACK out there needs to get his shit together and get his ass off the couch, payoff his debt and start living a life of truth not falicy.
Ooopss…disregard my last two posts…I just read some great info and will put all my clients…full bore…into the markets today…
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ahQ63GX1FSMs&refer=homeWell put spears. Maybe Joe six pack should sell hock his wife’s gold and buy GE - I notice it is in green territory at the moment. At a P/E of half the historical market average, and a yield of almost six percent, even Joe can make money. Oh, I know, earnings may be slowing and the price may go lower, but watching and waiting is boring.
Bspears , I like the logic with your proposal on consumer debt. Correct , somewhat like a Mulligan. Did you take your proposal/theory from a similar program? Sounds very much like Banks , Investment Bankers and Insurance Companies. Would it be something like :
1) Take on risks that are questionable , 2) Greed - make sure the executives compensation is excessive , 3) Drive your firm in to bankruptcy and 4) Run , don't walk to the Government to either shore up your company or bail out your company at the taxpayers expense. Why not , let's go for the GoldNone taken but yes I am. Do the math, taking a 40% loss takes a hell of a long time to get back to just even.
I don’t know, if it goes down 40%, I guess it has to go back up about 66%. That almost seems evil. Down from when, and where?
I'm meeting with a retired client whose portfolio is up 3.91% AARtn since 1/94, and the S&P is up .53 and the Lehman (oh.) Aggregate is up 4.54%. We are in the business of hedging risk, growing and protecting money. What do you think will happen next? Even, hell, I want to kill something. Time to get our "average" returns. Even if we live in a brave new world, don't lose perspective for your clients.Hedge fund redemption deadline looming…will that push the market even lower.
Spears, you don’t believe in efficient market theory, do you?
I highly doubt our clients could handle ALL the information surrounding this crisis. So no I definately don’t believe in it.
So you feel the market level we’re at now is being driven by the small investor. Wouldn’t that mean we are at the point where small investors (like EZ) are capitulating?
We can sell reality, because we get it.
I like it. Highly qualified, highly paid, sales professionals. I love this job.I just took a guy under 40 half out today…he’s wrong long-term, but I’m sick of arguing with him…
Okay now back to you two superstars…do I think capitulation has happened, not at all, not even close. You keep singin the buy and hold all the way down. IF we hold the lows of 02, I will be suprised.
Indy …you did what you did " As per your clien’t instructions ". The legal addage " You are you own worst counsel ", to clarify HE decided despite your professional advice.
[quote=Indyone]I just took a guy under 40 half out today…he’s wrong long-term, but I’m sick of arguing with him…[/quote]
Might not be a bad move…I am open to the possibility that we trade down to 7500-8000 and stay there for extended period of time. (5+ years???) Ouch…I hope not, but given the world we live in and the state of our financial markets…a distinct possibility.
Why lose another 15% from here in short order? Sidelines, cash is not a bad place to be.
Ice…your nothin but a punk…been in this industry for 13 months…are you sure your not with Jones…
That's fine, Indy, but I hope you gave him a good kick in the butt on the way out, " Now is the time that stocks are returned to their rightful owners. " Seriously, I wonder how much a wooden barrel costs now, the kind you walk around with after you lose everything. See, the effects of inflation are everywhere, and clothes are cheaper now.
This is the funniest thread I have read in a while. Now is not the time to go to cash, that was many months ago. There is a relief rally coming in here. Wait for it. Then pull money. Of course, by that time most will think everything is ok again.
Panic definetely is the mood right now.
I have scared shitless clients/prospects asking me what my thoughts are. I retort "Got a plan and im stickin to it, keep my allocation among good quality stocks/bonds with some alt. asset classes (commodities, RE, etc) thrown in for good measure. I dont panic, I let the mad bear run into the tree and re-position myself" Bottom line is that yes whats happening now reeks of 1990/91 and to an extent, 73/74. However its not our job to play psychoanalyst, fortune teller, prostitute, etc. It is our job to position clients for good times and bad. Oh.......and I am loving Dick(!!) Fuld getting knocked out in the gym. http://consumerist.com/5060063/lehman-brothers-ceo-got-punched-in-the-face I wish that he would have been beaten into a coma with a barbell and shat upon. But ill take what I can getI think going to cash here is playing with fire and is the reason that individual investors trail the S&P 500 by about 600 bps long-term. This guy is so shell-shocked right now that we'll go back up 30% before he'll be interested in getting back in...and get the worst of both sides in the deal. If he were 60, I'd better understand, but hell, he's not even 40. I'm within $10K of all in on my stock allocation and I'm itching to put that part in. Nevertheless, arguing with a client at this stage of the game is just begging for arbitration if you're wrong, so he's half out per his wishes and not back in until he tells me he wants back in. I still remember clients telling me in the summer of 2002 that it would be years before the market recovers. Most expected another terrorist attack at any moment and had no interest in stocks. This feels alot like that except we've done more of a "V" than a "U". No one knows for sure where the end is, but I feel like we're damned close and I'm not willing to go all cash and miss the first 15-20% trying to decide if the rally is for real or not.[quote=Indyone]I just took a guy under 40 half out today…he’s wrong long-term, but I’m sick of arguing with him…[/quote]
Might not be a bad move…I am open to the possibility that we trade down to 7500-8000 and stay there for extended period of time. (5+ years???) Ouch…I hope not, but given the world we live in and the state of our financial markets…a distinct possibility.
Why lose another 15% from here in short order? Sidelines, cash is not a bad place to be.
Indyone you are exactly right except we have only done the \ so far not the / yet. We will. Those predicting the future always have us beat. We can’t prove a negative so they must be right. Iceco1d why are you wishing bspears back on us nice people at Jones? I’ve got nothin but love and respect for you. Contrary to popular forum opinion, there are nice, real, helpful, intelligent, professional people at Jones. sidebar (not at@ Ice). People have beef with the company then let it fly that is the point of the forum. Hitting families and people below the belt? IMHO nobody likes any of us now…we caused this (according to the tv we are all “fatcats”). Lets atleast not hate each other individually.
Ice, so if you're so bright, why work for someone else. If you have all this knowledge and contacts and production is so much fun...why work for the man? Why didn't you just test and become an RIA? Instead your sitting in some little tiny office, posting on this damn forum all day AND night, trying to make people think you're a somebody. You're a nobody...Last time I looked, my name was on the door...for all I know, you could be somebody's secretary.
Ask your clients if they had a rental property and collected rent every month and the rental property went down 20% - 30% but they still collected the rent would they sell it?
Then compare that to there mutual funds shares they own.I’m telling my clients to hold, to be patient, to stick to their plan, etc., etc.
But I'm not sure I believe it. This does feel different. (Sorry, I said it: It IS different). The worldwide banking system has broken down, probably a trillion dollars or more will be needed to recapitalize the system -- I don't see how we avoid a two-year recession, or more, which will cost another couple of trillion in lost growth and added debt. My prospects are discouraged, scared and pessimistic, not just about the markets, but about America in general. The ones that invest in stocks are down over the past 10 years. Ten years is a long time to stay the course. Reminds me of the saying -- a down market returns stocks to their rightful owners -- well, I suspect this crisis will return stocks to the professional investors for a long time.Come on guys...it's just the capitulation talking!
I would say this time it’s different because Asset Allocation hasn’t helped in this down turn. The traditional safehavens such as investment grade bonds and preferreds are tanking. Non-correlating asset classes such as commodities are getting crushed.
However, I do believe we will come out of this someday... I just don't know when.Does anyone want to stand in front of the freight train?
[quote=Mike Damone]I would say this time it’s different because Asset Allocation hasn’t helped in this down turn. The traditional safehavens such as investment grade bonds and preferreds are tanking. Non-correlating asset classes such as commodities are getting crushed.
However, I do believe we will come out of this someday... I just don't know when.[/quote] Yeah, it's always different for one reason or another, but I'd have to admit the same surprise that bonds have for the most part, tanked along with stocks this time. Kind of ruins the story of the balanced fund, doesn't it? I've told clients the same...we'll eventually recover, but I can't tell you when and at what level the recovery starts. I'm gonna fire my last stock bullet today...no more cash for the stock part of my portfolio...have mercy...[quote=Indyone][quote=Mike Damone]I would say this time it’s different because Asset Allocation hasn’t helped in this down turn. The traditional safehavens such as investment grade bonds and preferreds are tanking. Non-correlating asset classes such as commodities are getting crushed.
However, I do believe we will come out of this someday... I just don't know when.[/quote] Yeah, it's always different for one reason or another, but I'd have to admit the same surprise that bonds have for the most part, tanked along with stocks this time. Kind of ruins the story of the balanced fund, doesn't it? I've told clients the same...we'll eventually recover, but I can't tell you when and at what level the recovery starts. I'm gonna fire my last stock bullet today...no more cash for the stock part of my portfolio...have mercy...[/quote]Everything's out the window in this market. The speed and the magnitude was absurd. Nothing's working. It's like warfare, everyone's holding their ground and digging their trenches. No one's listening to reason. This includes banks, investment firms, clients and reps. Reminds me of the 1997 Economic Contagion that started in Asia. Thailand gets the flu and spreads it around the world. The US started it this time. It'll take some time for the dust to settle on this one.
Money or capital injection will not solve this problem - market sentiment, reason, and optimism will. It's also not a bad idea that some heads roll from this mess. I just heard Bush is now talking to the IMF - I hope it's not for a loan.
"However, I do believe we will come out of this someday… I just don’t know when."
These aRe the exact words that i have used in talking to my clients, i don’t know what else to say. I have done the right thing for my clients, every one of them. And some of them are screwed anyway.
There is no answer but to say, i don.t know when, but eventually everything will be fine.
Hopefully, the pessimism permeating the boards here is a good sign that we are almost there. I th0ought that 2000 Dow points ago.
Didn’t they just remove some shortselling limits yesterday? Market held out pretty well most of the day. Do you thing sb made $ today. I’d be worried about short covers, and market timing, and having the insight and gumption to be back in.
It's a great time to put money in the markets. I'm not a huge Buffet fan, but I believe in the saying:
"Be Fearful when others are Greedy, and be Greedy when others are Fearful." People (and some of the brokers on this board) are peeing in their pants right now. I'm not calling a bottom, I'm just saying that in five years you'll be glad you put the money in. And, in 30 years, you can tell your grandkids that you invested in the Dow when it was under 9,000.Everybody wants and thinks that is going to be over and day now…Look
back at the stock market history and in particular, 1972-1974.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stock_market_crash…
Could
we lose 45-75% from the top? Completely possible. Look at Asia tonight
down 10% in one session. Were the circumstance of those years as dire
as the current crisis? This could get alot worse.
London stock exchange particularly took it on the chin…down 73%…Does this sound familiar???
Worse
was the effect in the United Kingdom, and particularly on the London
Stock Exchange’s FT 30, which lost 73% of its value during the
crash.[4] From a position of 5.1% real GDP growth in 1972, the UK went
into recession in 1974, with GDP falling by 1.1%.[1] At the time, the
UK’s property market was going through a major crisis, and a secondary
banking crisis forced the Bank of England to bail out a number of
lenders.[5] In the United Kingdom, the crash ended after the rent
freeze was lifted on 19 December 1974, allowing a readjustment of
property prices; over the following year, stock prices rose by 150%.[5]
However, unlike in the United States, inflation continued to rise, to
25% in 1975, giving way to the era of stagflation..
I don’t hate you Ice, I think you’re a funny dude. It was kinda low of you to wish me back to Jones, that did hurt.
It amazes me how much you post...and I'm not kidding. Are you really taking care of your clients...I bet they'd love to know your on here so much. The whole name on the door has been my life, girlfriend. Having bought and sold many businesses, restaurants, Ag/Turf Eq Mfg, Restaurant Supply Co, this is what I do. I build wealth personally and for my clients and partnerships. I knew at an early age I would make my own way, not on the coattails of others. I have a hard time thinking someone who owned a business at 22, and from your posts a successful one, would go work for someone else. (I know I did when I went to Jones, biggest mistake of my life). Actually I'm in my 30's, but with a whisper of my grey hair, I look older. Helps in this biz. Let me give you a little help with business startup 101...you could rent your building, let the landlord worry about the roof. Split an assistant or heck...in todays world with technology, you could do it yourself...so no employees. Not sure why you need patents or copyrights at this early stage, unless your Ben Graham or you have a new super way to ride the market down to 8k.So how is that stress-free life working out right now?
Tech analysis sucks. Market broke into a negative trend on 1/4/2008. Clients complaining about being down 8% this year… until I remind them they were up 11% last year, net postive return, market down 35% 01/01/2007-today. On second thought this doesn’t suck so much.
Didn’t feel like posting in multiple threads. Berrian sucks. He will play, but the Vikes will pass all of 8 times as All-Day runs for 225 yds.
Just keepin it real brotha!!!
Football is a game for “men” who secretly wanted to wear their moms’ shoulder pads when they were kids and wish to slap other mens’ butts.
FOOTball (soccer) is a real man's game. *runs away flailing like a little girl*Maybe you should try a game of soccer
Real men play squash.
I’m not a huge football fan (I’ve been to one college game in my life and zero professional games), but I love soccer. There are technical aspects to each that make either of them great fun to watch if you understand the game, but give me a soccer game anyday over a football game. There’s nothing like a Man Utd vs Chelsea game. 90,000 fans in one stadium that will cheer, chant, hoot and holler (well, I’m not sure the Brits hoot or holler), for a game where there might not be any goals scored. There’s not a game that is more globally accepted than soccer, football, or futbol for the Bundesliga fans out there.
And just remember, those soccer guys are taking those tackles and challenges with only shin pads on. If someone doesn't crack a skull open during any given soccer game, the midfielders haven't been doing their job.To get this post on track:
Who thinks this was a temporary rally? I think some chart readers see us going up a little more before we have another drop and touch the low 8000's again. That would then be the bottom, and we would slowly climb out from there. We'll see.To get the post off track:
Everyone knows that the only real man's sport is Baseball. There are no ties in baseball. Any sport that accepts ties is a wuss sport. I thought everyone knew that.Well, everyone still standing here must be pretty tough. There's gotta be some market bounces, but with all of the government stimulation, even a primate could make money grabbing some (private) equity ownership - public stocks - at reduced prices.
[quote=now_indy]To get the post off track:
Everyone knows that the only real man's sport is Baseball. There are no ties in baseball. Any sport that accepts ties is a wuss sport. I thought everyone knew that. [/quote]yah...I guess...if you enjoy watching paint dry then baseball is a real manly game....
[quote=iceco1d][quote=Spaceman Spiff]
And just remember, those soccer guys are taking those tackles and challenges with only shin pads on. If someone doesn't crack a skull open during any given soccer game, the midfielders haven't been doing their job. [/quote] If football games were played with much less padding, players would die and be left paralyzed on a weekly basis. [/quote]So what you're saying is that all this modern-day safety equipment is actually impeding the process of natural selection?
[quote=Ferris Bueller] [quote=HymanRoth]
[quote=now_indy]To get the post off track:
Everyone knows that the only real man’s sport is Baseball. There are no ties in baseball. Any sport that accepts ties is a wuss sport. I thought everyone knew that. [/quote]yah…I guess…if you enjoy watching paint dry then baseball is a real manly game…[/quote]
The ONLY way to enjoy a baseball game is to have 1 beer per inning. Otherwise, don’t bother.[/quote]
Agreed.
Even better if you can get seats with a good view of the foul-ball girls. Now you’re talking a good baseball game…
Baseball could be interesting if they would only allow a rule change for fan participation…
The guys would kiss the gals on the strikes; the gals would kiss the guys on the balls.LOL!
Read my post again. I have played soccer.[/quote] I was being sarcastic (implying that you haven't and I still think if you did, you're either exagerating about your experiences or have limited experience playing soccer). I don't know what "I have played" constitutes since there is no way on god's green earth anyone who's played a good deal of soccer hasn't ever had a few injuries. Football is tactical. A play is made, pause, planning, and another plan is put together. Soccer is very tactical itself but there aren't many pauses amidst a game keeping emotions and adrenaline running high at all times. As a result an elbow to the face and a kick to the shin is almost always expected. Except in this game, there isn't a helmet to protect you.[quote=anabuhabkuss]Maybe you should try a game of soccer
Football is definitely a brute force type of game. Soccer is a game of finesse, control, and stamina. Just because they share the same name, doesn’t mean they share the same fan base. The soccer crowd seems to be much more intelligent.
Let get another perspective in this discussion. What about rugby or Aussie rules football? Not for the faint-hearted.
I’ve actually been getting into the UFC cage fighting stuff. I definitely watch it for the blood and broken bones…
Hey ( from the Canadian perspective ) and from Northern States…I vote Hockey as a Man’s Sport. No " girly men " survive this sport.
Actually, they do. They're just faster than the rest of the goon defensemen. Tony Twist (one of the biggest Blues goons ever) isn't ever going to catch Federov. He might get a lucky shot in on a scramble for the puck along the boards on his end, but he'll never catch up to him to get him to drop the gloves. Don't get me wrong, I'd agree with you. I'd put even the most "girly" of the hockey players up against most tough guys anyday. Sticks, frozen chunks of rubber flying at 100mph, sharpened steel skates, hitting, fighting, broken bones, missing teeth. It's either next year's rendition of Mad Max or a Blues/Blackhawks game. Where's my Brett Hull jersey? I have also found myself watching UFC. My wife thinks it's barbaric, which means that it's doing exactly what they intend it to do. It all for shock value. I heard one time that there are actually fewer brain injuries in UFC than in boxing. Makes sense to me. In UFC you take one good shot to the ol' noggin' and your down with the ref covering you cause you're defenseless. In boxing you take shot after shot for 10+ rounds and never get knocked down. It's no wonder those guys end up getting pushed around in wheelchairs with drool running down their chins when they're 55. Brains aren't meant to be sloshed around like that.Hey ( from the Canadian perspective ) and from Northern States…I vote Hockey as a Man’s Sport. No " girly men " survive this sport.
I'd vote for Mario. He wouldn't fight fair. He'd pull Ray's trunks up over his head, push him down, and take wild swings at the back of his head. All while trying to land little rabbit punches below the belt while the ref isn't watching.Ray Lewis vs Mario Lemieux…hmmm
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