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Eight Must Reads for the CRE Industry Today (Aug. 4, 2022)

Freddie Mac expects multifamily origination volume to slow in the second half of 2022, reports Multi-Housing News. A recent survey shows nearly one third of Americans now expect to check in on work when taking time off, according to Fortune. These are among today’s must reads from around the commercial real estate industry.

  1. Freddie Mac Expects Pace of Growth to Slow in Second Half “Citing a heightened degree of economic uncertainty, volatile Treasury rate environment and downward pressure on property valuations, Freddie Mac expects multifamily origination volume to slow for the second half of the year dropping between 8 to 10 percent, to $440 billion to $450 billion, according to its 2022 Midyear Multifamily Outlook.” (Multi-Housing News)
  2. Remote work ate your vacation. ‘The lines between work and life have become increasingly blurred’ “Already sleepy offices are quieter than ever. But many Americans say their managers and colleagues expect them to check in while they’re away. More than 30% of respondents to the Qualtrics survey said they’re even expected to answer phone calls or texts while on vacation, 27% are expected to respond to emails, and 20% are expected to be online.” (Fortune)
  3. You’re Back at the Office. Your Annoying Colleagues Are, Too. “Some say having to once again deal with office politics, loud chatter and other workplace grievances is already making them nostalgic for when they were only able to engage with their peers over the phone or online.” (The Wall Street Journal)
  4. Vornado Braces For Economic Downturn But Finds Comfort in Penn District “The expected decline in earnings, which CFO Michael Franco attributed to rising interest rates, Vornado reported during a Tuesday morning earnings call  that the real estate investment trust (REIT) would lean on operating income — which was up 7.1 percent compared to the previous quarter — from existing, long-term leases while waiting for payouts from Penn District investments, which could be five to 10 years away.” (Commercial Observer)
  5. Report: Mall giant sees no downturn in store openings “In its second quarter earnings report, the mall giant said that its occupancy rate was 93.9% at June 30, 2022, compared to 91.8% on June 30, 2021. Its average base rent increased for the third consecutive quarter, to $54.58. It had record second-quarter sales of $746 per square foot at its malls and outlets combined.” (Chain Store Age)
  6. Buyers, sellers are far apart on prices “‘I think our pipeline will probably moderate a little for this coming quarter,’ DB Capital CEO Brennen Degner told Multifamily Dive. ‘The general expectation is that things pick up a little more after Labor Day. But the market is pretty quiet and just trying to find its footing right now.’” (Multifamily Dive)
  7. Why Negative Leverage Deals Make Sense — and Why They Don’t “Whether the Fed actually follows through on all of its plans remains to be seen. To date, however, capitalization rates have not materially adjusted to higher interest rates, leaving multifamily investors who are intent on putting money to work in the highest-quality assets with little choice but to make negative leverage wagers.” (Commercial Observer)
  8. Small Investor Opportunities Surface for Industrial “One broker said that institutional investors are putting everything on hold for 5 to 6 weeks to see how interest rates shake out, according to NAI Global. However, the group noted that there is upside to some of the retrading activity.” (GlobeSt.com)
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