Wonder how much money has to be lost

or Register to post new content in the forum

17 RepliesJump to last post

 

Comments

  • Allowed HTML tags: <em> <strong> <blockquote> <br> <p>

Plain text

  • No HTML tags allowed.
  • Web page addresses and e-mail addresses turn into links automatically.
  • Lines and paragraphs break automatically.
Mar 7, 2008 6:40 pm

before clients start saying the Stock Market is not "fun anymore."

Mar 7, 2008 7:29 pm

This is nothing but drips and drabs of declines. Actually, I think the market is still high when compared to the underlying fundamentals. I'm looking for a series of substantial declines. Maybe in April, when the quarterlies go out and people realize they can lose money in the market, then they'll run for the hills!

Mar 7, 2008 8:35 pm

Agree..think this thing is actually being propt up.  The last few days of the month in 5-6 of the last lousy months have seen funny manupulated action to trim the losses.  Last couple days of Feb were down, it was the first time they could not hold it up.  I think that screamed loudly that this week would be down.  Agree that April could and should be just awful once the earnings or lack there off start coming in.  When looking at the Long Term charts I think the economy and financial system is worst off than 2002 and could see that as a target for the Market.  But so many clients have been suckered into the mangaged money sham, I just wonder if they are stupid enough to ride it all the way down over the next couple years??

 
At least 10 managed money brokers in my office with 90% of their entire book in managed accounts.  Sales assistant has told me people are asking for there $$ and pulling out, do not know if it this simple, but wonder if the 1,000,000 producers of managed money, in a market drop of 33-50% and maybe 1/3 of people getting out along the way.  Surprise you have a 200-300k producer.
 
Mar 9, 2008 4:11 pm

So funds are not dropping?  Just managed accounts?

Mar 9, 2008 4:22 pm

managed accounts I have are not dropping..the stupid equities only funds are getting killed..and will continue to get killed.  It is smoke and mirrors..and it has been for the last 7 years, look at the dollar index, we are in a depression. 

Mar 9, 2008 5:51 pm

Managed accounts you have aren't dropping? And who would the SMA managers be and what is the asset mix? The only thing positive YTD is energy, tips, and international fixed income. Unless I misunderstood your quote, I would be suprised if many SMA's or mutual funds are positive for the year. Seven years ago was 2001, that wasn't a good year to be all stock, nor was 2002.

Mar 9, 2008 6:14 pm

Fritz,

Actually the managed money clients in my practice have been far more calm since October than those not in managed accounts.  They realize that I am getting paid less for accounts that are down and my interests are aligned with theirs.  Also when I started moving aggressive accounts back in November, I did not have to have a commission  discussion with any of them.  Makes it much easier for the client to see that I am recomending changes based on their best interests as opposed to trying to collect a commission on an investment that is down from the Sept statement high.
Mar 9, 2008 6:23 pm

  Using Mainstay Custom asset allocation managed money. Lots in cash, ENERGY and hedge.   7 years ago the dollar index was 121...today it is 73.  Thats a negative 40%. This has been a failing market since 2001. Recession? worse.

Mar 9, 2008 11:45 pm

Interesting...what do you all supposed Canada was doing when their dollar was trading below 60 cents against our buck?  They damned sure weren't in a depression.  Some of you bears are getting just a bit over the top, to say the least.  Currencies cycle just like everything else...doubt that at your own risk.

Mar 10, 2008 7:28 am
Indyone:

Interesting...what do you all supposed Canada was doing when their dollar was trading below 60 cents against our buck?  They damned sure weren't in a depression.  Some of you bears are getting just a bit over the top, to say the least.  Currencies cycle just like everything else...doubt that at your own risk.

 
+1
Mar 10, 2008 4:30 pm

The US dollar is the global petro currency. It is the most important global currency....at an all time low. Indy, give me the reasons that the dollar will strengthen.  Canadian dollar is a tiny spec on the global economy. Canada  is and has been a net exporter, therefore their dollar has been on the rise.     IMO no decoupling will occur..the US will take down canada...world.

Mar 10, 2008 4:40 pm

no [email protected] sherlock...but their dollar is only significantly up when compared to the US dollar

Mar 10, 2008 4:46 pm

I've given a couple.  Why don't you give us a few reasons as to why the dollar will inevitably continue to spiral down to nothing?

Mar 10, 2008 4:57 pm

Ferris...your quick short remarks are not informative or entertaining...stop...

 


Indyone,
1) the war. 1.5 billion a day...
2) $155 B stimulous plan
3) potential gov bailouts of subprime, banks
4) deflate the dollar to control crash landing
5) SS....is broke...must print money
6) global distrust in USA
7) this is not a cycle..it is desperation
Mar 10, 2008 5:15 pm
Go back and look at how much WWII cost in terms of GDP
2. ...and this is the first stimulus plan?
3. ...and this is the first government bailout?
4. ...huh?  You got the country boy on that one...not sure what you're trying to say.
5. ...That we know something must be done with SS is not new, however, it's still taking in more money than it's paying out...hardly printing money.
6. Yeah, well, I don't trust foreigners either!  This is not new either.  As a country, we cycle up and down in goodwill and friendly global partners come and go.  Once, we were arch enemies with England and France was our best friend...how times have changed.
7. Well, that's your call, but I'm not seeing it.  Apparently I'm not reading the right newsletters.
 
I could argue all night, but it appears we are at an impasse and I've got a board meeting to attend and some portfolio work to do afterward.
Mar 10, 2008 9:07 pm

We are no longer the dominant power in the global economy, and we likely wont be anytime soon (i dont ever like to use the word "never"

Thats why this decline in the dollar is at the very least, "secular"
Mar 10, 2008 9:49 pm

very well said pratoman...