What will be the catalyst?

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Mar 11, 2009 3:20 pm


Realization that the worst of the markdowns are behind us?



Housing depreciation slows?



Citigroup and Chase become profitable?

Mar 11, 2009 3:26 pm
Nationalized Healthcare .....
 
All of the above.  Once the "bleeding" stops, layoffs slow, companies start to show some profitability, the market has a sustained rally (even if it's small, it has to be sustained), no more headlines about writedowns, the mood changes, and the "talking heads" all try to beat each other to the punch calling "recovery".
 
I think when this all comes together, we will have a very brisk run up to about 9,000-10,000, then a pull back for profit-taking, then another modest run up to about 10,000-11,000 (within 2 years), where it will level off for a while.  I think 13,000 is a pipe dream in the next 3-4 years.  6.5 years back to 14,000.
Mar 11, 2009 3:33 pm

Look what a little good news did yesterday.  Confidence is key!

Mar 11, 2009 8:29 pm
B24:
Nationalized Healthcare .....
 
All of the above.  Once the "bleeding" stops, layoffs slow, companies start to show some profitability, the market has a sustained rally (even if it's small, it has to be sustained), no more headlines about writedowns, the mood changes, and the "talking heads" all try to beat each other to the punch calling "recovery".
 
I think when this all comes together, we will have a very brisk run up to about 9,000-10,000, then a pull back for profit-taking, then another modest run up to about 10,000-11,000 (within 2 years), where it will level off for a while.  I think 13,000 is a pipe dream in the next 3-4 years.  6.5 years back to 14,000.
 
LOL...6.5 years to 14,000?  How do you figure?  C, BAC, GM, GE, AA are dead and could easily go away in the next 1-2 years...PFE, HD, AXP are shot.  Do the math, unless they kick out 10 names and completely revamp the index it will never hit 14,000.  I dont have the numbers here, but have seen them, the remaing stronger ones (10-11 names) would have to nearly double their highs to make up for the dead weight.
Mar 11, 2009 9:17 pm

Earnings my friends. Equity prices will not rise and stick until the earnings are there to support them. And earnings will not be there until spending frees up again.



Americans seem to have been shocked into savings mode, and it's about time. As long as consumer spending remains at low levels compared with the last 20 years or so, valuations will remain moderate. I don't think we'll see Dow 14,000 for 10+ years.

Mar 11, 2009 9:26 pm

Philo,
 We'll see Dow 14000 in MUCH less than  10 years. Keep in mind that the Dow Industrial 30 is always in flux. Once the companies who have crooked and lied their way to failure are replaced, your prognostication of earnings will be spot on; and P/E's and equity valuations will reward it. Unless, of course, wards-of-the-state are required by new federal law to remain in the Dow Industrials. In that case....turn out the lights.....

Mar 11, 2009 9:32 pm

I'm speaking of an apples-to-apples comparison, that is, the Dow Industrials as it stands now (or the last time it was at 14,000 if you prefer.) Personally, I follow the S&P as it's broader based. If they change the composition of the indices, as they most surely will, yes I suppose anything is possible. That doesn't change the fact that billions of wealth has effectively evaporated which would lead one to believe that it was all based on lies and deceptions anyway.

Mar 11, 2009 9:37 pm

And my point is that there are LOTS and lots of very profitable, well run companies out there who weren't effected directly by 30:1 leveraging of idiotic loans. Let the weak die, their carcasses will fortify the strong.

Mar 11, 2009 9:50 pm
YHWY:


And my point is that there are LOTS and lots of very profitable, well run companies out there who weren't effected directly by 30:1 leveraging of idiotic loans. Let the weak die, their carcasses will fortify the strong.





Where I disagree with you YHWY is that I believe that everyone, well run or otherwise is affected by the 30:1 leverage. When no money is available to be spent, it doesn't matter how well run a company is.



Other than that, I wholeheartedly agree that the weak minded and infirm companies should in fact be allowed to die rather than be kept on life support using our ever-decreasing resources to no good effect.

Mar 11, 2009 9:53 pm

In any case, Philo, we'll find out together. Above and beyond that, my family and I sincerely thank you for your Naval service!

Mar 11, 2009 9:57 pm
YHWY:

In any case, Philo, we'll find out together. Above and beyond that, my family and I sincerely thank you for your Naval service!





No thanks are necessary my friend.



Service is indeed a privilege, doubly so aboard submarines





Pride Runs Deep.

Mar 11, 2009 10:05 pm

duh



The REAL story>?    Capitalism horse out of barn.



massive monster global economy



china india brazil eastern europe etc etc



This little subprime bump in the road just that.



remember the crap u were chasing in 06,07?



buy it.    global infrastructure, ag,oil, nat resources



pot,mon,mot,flr etc