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What to buy in this market?

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Oct 6, 2008 9:22 pm

i love munis, and preferreds. but man i’m i getting my ass kicked buying munis for clients. i mean teeth kicked in!!

Oct 6, 2008 9:39 pm

C’mon, time to be a man and buy stocks. The yield on GE is over 6%. What are you waiting for? Little old ladies is fine, for your active cliets, buy INTC.

Oct 6, 2008 9:42 pm

intc sucks

Oct 6, 2008 9:48 pm

I loooove me some GMAB’s from mutual insurance companies for my accumulators.  Keeps 'em in the game (which we all should be doing, NOT selling in a panic)

  Retirees?  We've had to be creative.  If you really know what you're doing and not just throwing shit at a wall to see what sticks, clients aren't feeling the pinch too much.
Oct 6, 2008 10:20 pm

see you at 8000. wasn’t short term money. the question we should all be asking is why didn’t the brains in reasearch see this coming instead of putting out the all so optimistic forecast. i’m very disappointed in them.

  ole' lincoln anderson told us in the early spring '07 that the housing market wouldn't hurt and that the sub prime mess was such a small piece of the pie that we shouldn't worry about it. he should be fired for not giving us better advice. hell i could of given that half assedadvise! he's pitiful. LPl should get better!
Oct 6, 2008 10:28 pm

[quote=ezmoney]see you at 8000. wasn’t short term money. the question we should all be asking is why didn’t the brains in reasearch see this coming instead of putting out the all so optimistic forecast. i’m very disappointed in them.

  ole' lincoln anderson told us in the early spring '07 that the housing market wouldn't hurt and that the sub prime mess was such a small piece of the pie that we shouldn't worry about it. he should be fired for not giving us better advice. hell i could of given that half assedadvise! he's pitiful. LPl should get better![/quote]   Really, wasn't short term?  Missed the 100k breakpoint?  And if it wasn't short term, why are you letting short term market action dictate long term investment advice?  Hmmmm.
Oct 6, 2008 10:31 pm

what are you compliance dept. i get paid for my service. 1% to be exact. see you at 8000.

Oct 6, 2008 10:37 pm

Your clients are overpaying.

Oct 6, 2008 10:44 pm

Wisdom.

Oct 7, 2008 12:21 am

I get 5% in and out of a position … I don’t get why nobody else seems to get it. You want to buy in … sell a cash covered put. If you get your price you get to reduce your basis on the per the premium recieved, It doesnt get there you get paid for being wrong. Never mind writting covered calls.

Oct 7, 2008 12:24 am

VIX over 40, delta under .20 or -.20 you have a 80% chance of success with 5 differant ways to worm out of a loss. Not to mention FREE margin $$.

Oct 15, 2008 11:23 pm

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=RYMZX

Is anyone else using this fund? I realize that it will lag if the market takes off and/or they are on the wrong side of a trade. However, I have been pleasantly (underlined)  surprised. Plus if I want to sell it I don't have to deal with anything approaching the TARP getting passed through the House to sell. Selling Campbell or its ilk is a pain in the arse.
Oct 15, 2008 11:41 pm

I spoke with our Met wholesaler today, he attempted to sooth my nerves via the cash they raised and are sitting on (20 billion) and the hope that other insurers will bail out other insurers to keep them all propped up. Apparently Smith Barney has an analyst who put out a report saying Met is the one to own. Don’t plan on owning the stock, just want the darn GMIB+ to be there when my clients need it.

Oct 16, 2008 2:06 pm

GG-

  The realization that these companies can tell you one thing one day and reverse course the next is challenging my faith in the system. I was with a 44 year veteran last night at an MFS meeting (are you listening ICE?) and I have NEVER seen him so discouraged and I have known him almost 20 years. This is a crisis in confidence. LEH, BAC, MER, WAMU  etc..... While I agree with the premise that we should somehow stay positive and back the truck up to buy quality.... I hope what we learn from this experience is to trust no one and regulate the shit out the banks and insurance companies. They deserve it. Bring back the harshest version of Glass-Steagall and make these CEO's earn their friggin pay and restore confidence. GMIB's are at risk aren't they. If capitalization is an issue for firms like MET and Hartford (who just accepted 2.5B from Allianz!) what the hell are they doing?   I have heard and read all the corporate responses about how solvent they are, blah,blah,blah....and at this point I can't trust that when the ink is dry or the umpteenth conference call is finished, they aren't thinking about the spin that's coming next to protect themselves for the next capital crisis. And these guys in control are supposed to be so brilliant. They can take their MBA's and shove it where the sun don't shine.   Be very careful newbies. Although I have heard time and time again from clients, this crisis is different and I try my best to illustrate it isn't, I think back to my 66 year old veteran in this business who told me he lost on paper 600K of a 2.8M retirement portfolio i the last 12 months. He still is in the market, but he and I both shake our heads in amazement at the stupidity of our business leaders. So you folks who think you know it all or have the best investment ideas, prepare your clients for the worst and be pleasantly suprised when the markets recover. Yesterday I met with JPMorgan and their take is it will be 12-24 months before we see a sustainable recovery. I hope their wrong and its earlier. Their message was wait for a little while and then buy financials (I mean governmnet sponsored banks!) and large cap value stocks whick will lead us out of this mess not small caps (I found that interesting)this time.    
Oct 16, 2008 11:29 pm

Footsolider, I went to an American Funds event today and was less than inspired after hearing a bond analyst talk about how bad things are. The only inspiration was a reference to 1974 and the same stuff being said about the market. This time is probably not that different but it still sucks.

Oct 16, 2008 11:33 pm

Go to a Lazard meeting.  Those guys are real downers.  The charts that they show regarding the subprime issue, CDO’s, CDS’s, leverage, is enough to make you throw up your $40 steak.

Oct 16, 2008 11:41 pm

GMO takes the cake for wanting to throw in the towel. The ironic thing about them is, as negative as they always are, they are still getting throttled (at least in their Evergreen fund).  It’s ironic that now we are way down, the “downers” are coming out of the woodwork. I at least give David Tice (Prudent Bear) credit, he is always an a-hole 100% of the time.

Oct 17, 2008 1:40 am

I am glad you guys are so negative…it’s giving me and my clients the opportunity to accumulate some exceptional bargains.  We’ll gladly sell them back to you 20-30% more when you are feeling better about the world.

Oct 17, 2008 10:59 am

Op-Ed Contributor
Buy American. I Am.

By WARREN E. BUFFETT
Published: October 16, 2008


THE financial world is a mess, both in the United States and abroad. Its problems, moreover, have been leaking into the general economy, and the leaks are now turning into a gusher. In the near term, unemployment will rise, business activity will falter and headlines will continue to be scary.

So … I’ve been buying American stocks. This is my personal account I’m talking about, in which I previously owned nothing but United States government bonds. (This description leaves aside my Berkshire Hathaway holdings, which are all committed to philanthropy.) If prices keep looking attractive, my non-Berkshire net worth will soon be 100 percent in United States equities.

Why?

A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful. And most certainly, fear is now widespread, gripping even seasoned investors. To be sure, investors are right to be wary of highly leveraged entities or businesses in weak competitive positions. But fears regarding the long-term prosperity of the nation’s many sound companies make no sense. These businesses will indeed suffer earnings hiccups, as they always have. But most major companies will be setting new profit records 5, 10 and 20 years from now.

Let me be clear on one point: I can’t predict the short-term movements of the stock market. I haven’t the faintest idea as to whether stocks will be higher or lower a month — or a year — from now. What is likely, however, is that the market will move higher, perhaps substantially so, well before either sentiment or the economy turns up. So if you wait for the robins, spring will be over.

A little history here: During the Depression, the Dow hit its low, 41, on July 8, 1932. Economic conditions, though, kept deteriorating until Franklin D. Roosevelt took office in March 1933. By that time, the market had already advanced 30 percent. Or think back to the early days of World War II, when things were going badly for the United States in Europe and the Pacific. The market hit bottom in April 1942, well before Allied fortunes turned. Again, in the early 1980s, the time to buy stocks was when inflation raged and the economy was in the tank. In short, bad news is an investor’s best friend. It lets you buy a slice of America’s future at a marked-down price.

Over the long term, the stock market news will be good. In the 20th century, the United States endured two world wars and other traumatic and expensive military conflicts; the Depression; a dozen or so recessions and financial panics; oil shocks; a flu epidemic; and the resignation of a disgraced president. Yet the Dow rose from 66 to 11,497.

You might think it would have been impossible for an investor to lose money during a century marked by such an extraordinary gain. But some investors did. The hapless ones bought stocks only when they felt comfort in doing so and then proceeded to sell when the headlines made them queasy.

Today people who hold cash equivalents feel comfortable. They shouldn’t. They have opted for a terrible long-term asset, one that pays virtually nothing and is certain to depreciate in value. Indeed, the policies that government will follow in its efforts to alleviate the current crisis will probably prove inflationary and therefore accelerate declines in the real value of cash accounts.

Equities will almost certainly outperform cash over the next decade, probably by a substantial degree. Those investors who cling now to cash are betting they can efficiently time their move away from it later. In waiting for the comfort of good news, they are ignoring Wayne Gretzky’s advice: “I skate to where the puck is going to be, not to where it has been.”

I don’t like to opine on the stock market, and again I emphasize that I have no idea what the market will do in the short term. Nevertheless, I’ll follow the lead of a restaurant that opened in an empty bank building and then advertised: “Put your mouth where your money was.” Today my money and my mouth both say equities.

Oct 17, 2008 2:19 pm

I read that this morning, right after I read American Funds brochure on its new fund.  Buffett 100% US Stocks and Americans new fund is 90% International.  Hmmmm...

Great