Skrainka vs Lincoln Anderson

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May 23, 2007 4:18 pm

Am I being biased.....Lincoln at least sounds and acts like he knows what he's talking about....Skrainka...buy and hold forever...or until you need to meet your sales goal!!

May 23, 2007 9:21 pm

Gimme a break, Brittany. Have you ever even talked to Skrainka?

May 23, 2007 9:30 pm
Broker24:

Gimme a break, Brittany. Have you ever even talked to

Skrainka?





I have. Have you ever met with Lincoln Anderson?

May 23, 2007 9:35 pm
Broker24:

Gimme a break, Brittany. Have you ever even talked to Skrainka?


What's your point Broker24?  Are you suggesting that he is impressive?

May 23, 2007 10:33 pm

Other than Lincoln's underweighting in International, he seems pretty smart.  I think Skrainka is a pretty smart guy too. They're kind of hard to compare because Skrainka pretty much picked individual stocks, whereas Lincoln builds actual portfolios.

May 23, 2007 11:29 pm
now_indy:

Other than Lincoln's underweighting in International, he seems pretty smart.  I think Skrainka is a pretty smart guy too. They're kind of hard to compare because Skrainka pretty much picked individual stocks, whereas Lincoln builds actual portfolios.


I'm with you there...if he's underweighting lg cap int'l, I think he's way off, but in general, he seems like a pretty sharp guy.

May 23, 2007 11:34 pm
Indyone:
now_indy:

Other than Lincoln's underweighting in International, he seems pretty smart.  I think Skrainka is a pretty smart guy too. They're kind of hard to compare because Skrainka pretty much picked individual stocks, whereas Lincoln builds actual portfolios.


I'm with you there...if he's underweighting lg cap int'l, I think he's way off, but in general, he seems like a pretty sharp guy.



FWIW I think the underweighting is correct.  Take a look at how much the dollar has moved in the last couple of years, and then consider how it would impact your (dollar measured) returns if it merely retraced half of that move in the next 12-18 months.  Consider as well that right now it seems like almost EVERYONE loves large cap international right now.  Usually when everyone is reading from the same playbook like that they end up being wrong.

Just my 2 cents...

May 23, 2007 11:56 pm

Joe, you party-pooper...


Your currency point is noted and I can't disagree with the theory unless a manager is hedging currency, which happens a fair amount and may happen more if managers share your concern. Aside from that, I look at relative P/E's...large cap int'l looks cheap compared to domestic stocks (which don't look too bad, either).  While they've traditionally been lower than US P/E's, I look for that gap to close.


BTW, it seems like everyone likes healthcare stocks right now also...what say you about those?

May 24, 2007 12:01 am
Indyone:

Joe, you party-pooper...


Your currency point is noted and I can't disagree with the theory unless a manager is hedging currency, which happens a fair amount and may happen more if managers share your concern. Aside from that, I look at relative P/E's...large cap int'l looks cheap compared to domestic stocks (which don't look too bad, either).  While they've traditionally been lower than US P/E's, I look for that gap to close.


BTW, it seems like everyone likes healthcare stocks right now also...what say you about those?



I was at a recent seminar where a professor from Wharton tried to tell us that a typical retireee should have about 40% weighting in international, but stay away from developing markets because they are too risky.  And he said all this with a straight face....he was serious.

I'm more with the majority as regards healthcare.  Although, I'm thinking technology has even better potential since nobody seems to like it overly much right now.

May 24, 2007 2:52 am
Indyone:

Joe, you party-pooper...

Your currency point is noted and I can't disagree with the theory
unless a manager is hedging currency, which happens a fair amount
and may happen more if managers share your concern.


Except that if you hedge currency, you underperform all the unhedged funds.


Being so rational would expose the manager to too much career risk. Wall St is very effective in managing that.


Aside from that, I look at relative P/E's...large cap
int'l looks cheap compared to domestic stocks (which don't look too
bad, either).  While they've traditionally been lower than US
P/E's, I look for that gap to close.

BTW, it seems like everyone likes healthcare stocks right now also...what say you about those?


Alot of big pharma (notably PFE/JNJ) are very cheap right now. The various suppliers (BDX,MCK) are also interesting.


IMHO health care real estate is very interesting, subject to concerns about tenant credit quality etc.

May 24, 2007 8:33 pm
Philo Kvetch:
Broker24:

Gimme a break, Brittany.

Have you ever even talked to

Skrainka?





I have. Have you ever met with Lincoln Anderson?





No, but I was not taking a shot at him, either. I am sure he is very smart.

Just like Skrainka and all the other analysts out there. Ms. Spears was just

taking another pot-shot at Jones because of his experience there. I don't

see any credible evidence that Skrainka doesn't know what he's talking

about. I also think the guy's a pretty good speaker.

May 25, 2007 3:12 pm

[/quote]

I was at a recent seminar where a professor from Wharton tried to tell us that a typical retireee should have about 40% weighting in international, but stay away from developing markets because they are too risky.  And he said all this with a straight face....he was serious.

I'm more with the majority as regards healthcare.  Although, I'm thinking technology has even better potential since nobody seems to like it overly much right now.
[/quote]


I am thinking this is starting to feel like a bubble, too.


What is everyone using for an allocation weighting right now and how actively are you rebalancing away?


May 25, 2007 5:51 pm
joedabrkr:



I was at a recent seminar where a professor
from Wharton tried to tell us that a typical retireee should have about
40% weighting in international, but stay away from developing markets
because they are too risky.  And he said all this with a straight
face....he was serious.





Joe, that b/c the weighting of the US in the MSCI world index is only
50%, so to have a true market line portfolio you would need about 50%
VTI (MSCI Total US Market etf) and 50% CWI (MSCI World x-US ETF).



You would then dial back risk at the portfolio level by owning more bonds/risk free assets.





 

May 25, 2007 8:47 pm
AllREIT:
joedabrkr:



I was at a recent seminar where a professor
from Wharton tried to tell us that a typical retireee should have about
40% weighting in international, but stay away from developing markets
because they are too risky.  And he said all this with a straight
face....he was serious.





Joe, that b/c the weighting of the US in the MSCI world index is only
50%, so to have a true market line portfolio you would need about 50%
VTI (MSCI Total US Market etf) and 50% CWI (MSCI World x-US ETF).



You would then dial back risk at the portfolio level by owning more bonds/risk free assets.





 



Presuming you believe you should allocate strictly based on world market cap, ignoring the risk of going ex-US.

May 26, 2007 12:47 am
joedabrkr:
AllREIT:
joedabrkr:



I was at a recent seminar where a professor
from Wharton tried to tell us that a typical retireee should have about
40% weighting in international, but stay away from developing markets
because they are too risky.  And he said all this with a straight
face....he was serious.





Joe, that b/c the weighting of the US in the MSCI world index is only
50%, so to have a true market line portfolio you would need about 50%
VTI (MSCI Total US Market etf) and 50% CWI (MSCI World x-US ETF).



You would then dial back risk at the portfolio level by owning more bonds/risk free assets.



Presuming you believe you should allocate strictly based on world market cap, ignoring the risk of going ex-US.





This comes from an investment model of looking at between asset class
and portfolio risk while not being too concerned about in asset class
risk. So you work in very broad asset classes like Equities, and Bonds
vs being too picky about what goes in inside the asset class.



What I do for clients is the use the PID etf of ADR's that have raised
dividend for at least 5 years running. Being US listed and having a
history of raising dividends tends to act as a quality screen.



Increasing dividends tends to be a theme in my portoflios.