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Sep 5, 2009 11:40 pm

It's been a great market since march and the volatility has come down but any opinion on where s&p will end up by end of the year. Anyone actually buying stocks at these level?

Sep 6, 2009 10:23 am

Only Emerging Markets. Holding steady on everything else. S&P cannot rise much further without a significant bump in earnings. Otherwise we will be at 2007 levels all over again.

Sep 6, 2009 12:09 pm
skbroker:

It's been a great market since march and the volatility has come down but any opinion on where s&p will end up by end of the year. Anyone actually buying stocks at these level?



Markets totally overbought. No fundamental reason for sustained rally. Rally purely technical and will fall apart within the next 60 days. There will be a re-test of March lows. No economic recovery until we get jobs recovery and that isnt getting any better. This rally is all smoke and mirrors and black box trader driven. When it breaks down its gonna break real hard and real quick. I would be a buyer then. I'm betting this scenario will play out before year end, more likely before Nov.

Sep 6, 2009 2:04 pm

All I know is I have absolutely no idea and my magic eight ball (yes I actually have one in my office) doesn't work at all. All the positions I'm putting on are or close to market neutral.

 
The hedge is my edge. The revcon business has been good to me lately.
Sep 6, 2009 5:06 pm

Take trailing earnings of financials out of the S&P 500 and the market is still significantly undervalued.  Too much cash on the sideline (8 Trillion in MM, CD's, Savings) making too little interest.  No sellers either....anyone shaken out of the market sold last Oct or Nov or this March/April.   Spreads still too wide on high yield also (buy signal).  As with all recovery phases, if you wait until everything looks great, you will have missed 60-70% of the upside.  Read my previous posts.  As the market dipped, you always buy into it.  As the market rebounds back to a record high, and it will, lighten up at the top. 

 
Dow 10k end of this year, 11k end of '10, 20k by 2016. 
 
My license plate should read DOW20K.  What do you think?
Sep 6, 2009 5:14 pm

Not making any predictions, but does it concern anyone that if you overlay the chart of the Dow now onto the chart of the Dow from the Great Depression, they match almost exactly.  Nice rally followed by the big plunge if history holds.

Sep 6, 2009 5:22 pm
rankstocks:

Take trailing earnings of financials out of the S&P 500 and the market is still significantly undervalued.  Too much cash on the sideline (8 Trillion in MM, CD's, Savings) making too little interest.  No sellers either....anyone shaken out of the market sold last Oct or Nov or this March/April.   Spreads still too wide on high yield also (buy signal).  As with all recovery phases, if you wait until everything looks great, you will have missed 60-70% of the upside.  Read my previous posts.  As the market dipped, you always buy into it.  As the market rebounds back to a record high, and it will, lighten up at the top. 

 
Dow 10k end of this year, 11k end of '10, 20k by 2016. 
 
My license plate should read DOW20K.  What do you think?

 
 
You are out of your mind.  Take a look at the chart of Morgan Stanley, it is at the same price as it was in the 3rd week of March.  By the way the DOW was at 7600 then, nearly 2000 point move in the DOW, and countless of garbage secondaries and no movement.  This stock (and many others) is telling you that the market is in deep trouble 6-12 months out.
Sep 6, 2009 9:32 pm
rankstocks:

Take trailing earnings of financials out of the S&P 500 and the market is still significantly undervalued. Too much cash on the sideline (8 Trillion in MM, CD's, Savings) making too little interest. No sellers either....anyone shaken out of the market sold last Oct or Nov or this March/April.   Spreads still too wide on high yield also (buy signal). As with all recovery phases, if you wait until everything looks great, you will have missed 60-70% of the upside. Read my previous posts. As the market dipped, you always buy into it. As the market rebounds back to a record high, and it will, lighten up at the top.



Dow 10k end of this year, 11k end of '10, 20k by 2016.



My license plate should read DOW20K. What do you think?







Spot on

we will all be dead before you ever see mar 9 levels again (if ever).   



I love the doubters. The wall of worry.

perfect.    

July 10th was your last real chance to get on train.   

Wont be any real corrections for the next 25-40%.   dow 20k by dec 2014 (or sooner)

get long stay long. enjoy the ride.

we have been through hell last 10-12 years. Next decade gonna be twice average returns



The global economy is the real story.   



Sep 6, 2009 9:33 pm
You are out of your mind. Take a look at the chart of Morgan Stanley, it is at the same price as it was in the 3rd week of March. By the way the DOW was at 7600 then, nearly 2000 point move in the DOW, and countless of garbage secondaries and no movement. This stock (and many others) is telling you that the market is in deep trouble 6-12 months out.[/quote]





perfect.



Sep 7, 2009 12:09 pm

Flat the rest of the year, next and the year after.



Nobody should ever put anything about the Dow on their license plate.

Sep 7, 2009 2:28 pm

ok, so take it the next step - Moraen - if you believe the market will be flat the rest of the year, and same in 2010 and 2011, how are you positioning your clients?

This is a serious question.

Sep 7, 2009 3:00 pm

The market will be up
The market will be down

Sep 7, 2009 4:28 pm
rankstocks:

Take trailing earnings of financials out of the S&P 500 and the market is still significantly undervalued. Too much cash on the sideline (8 Trillion in MM, CD's, Savings) making too little interest. No sellers either....anyone shaken out of the market sold last Oct or Nov or this March/April.   Spreads still too wide on high yield also (buy signal). As with all recovery phases, if you wait until everything looks great, you will have missed 60-70% of the upside. Read my previous posts. As the market dipped, you always buy into it. As the market rebounds back to a record high, and it will, lighten up at the top.



Dow 10k end of this year, 11k end of '10, 20k by 2016.



My license plate should read DOW20K. What do you think?





I think you are using flawed data. I would be interested to see the raw data you are referring to. Look at the earnings the Dow will have to post to get to 10K.

Sep 7, 2009 4:52 pm

The Dow will close above 10k.  Pent up demand, money on the sidelines, companies are lean and can't get any leaner. We've hit the bottom.   Forget the charts, look at income statements, balance sheet, and cash flow statements.  Quit watching the headlines.

Sep 7, 2009 5:03 pm
Kudlowfan:

The Dow will close above 10k. Pent up demand, money on the sidelines, companies are lean and can't get any leaner. We've hit the bottom.   Forget the charts, look at income statements, balance sheet, and cash flow statements. Quit watching the headlines.





Who's financials are you looking at? Some banks may be undervalued from a cash flow standpoint, but their balance sheets would reflect a weakened financial condition. Retail? People are spending their surplus paying down debt (thus the higher savings rate). Manufacturing? Balance sheets may be strong, but their income statements are sad. Consumer staples? Are pretty strong but can't prop up the entire Dow. Cyclicals? Weak balance sheets with light cash flow.   Tech? Tech is weak with the exception of video games and Apple.



Companies are lean and are not allocating resources to payroll (usually the largest expense). What happens when they start adding to their payrolls?



The key financial statements of most companies predict slow growth punctuated with periods thinner margins. Thinner margins the result of increased payroll as companies begin adding personnel.



Bob - for me, now is the time to exploit undervalued, underreported equities. Minimal cash positions. I've picked the poisons for my various models. We'll maintain our disciplined approach to exiting each position. If you want more, PM me.



Sep 7, 2009 5:45 pm

I submit that if you can get market neutral it just doesn't matter where it goes. That being said new positions I'm taking are by selling puts with a delta of around -35 no more than 90 days out. If I don't get the stock I get paid for being wrong and try again. My stops are tight and trailing. It seems to me that the heath care sector has the best fundamentals at the moment but then we have the great capitalist satan Obama trying to pull the plug on that.

 
 
Sep 7, 2009 5:54 pm

If you want to beat the S&P 500 --- The Edward Jones Model Portfolio is the only option.

EDJ #1

Sep 7, 2009 10:16 pm

I predict Weddle Me will drown in a horrible drinking accident from continuously binge drinking kool-aid.

Sep 7, 2009 10:34 pm
Gaddock:

I submit that if you can get market neutral it just doesn't matter where it goes. That being said new positions I'm taking are by selling puts with a delta of around -35 no more than 90 days out. If I don't get the stock I get paid for being wrong and try again. My stops are tight and trailing. It seems to me that the heath care sector has the best fundamentals at the moment but then we have the great capitalist satan Obama trying to pull the plug on that.

 
 



Great...just how does one go about doing that effectively and in a timely manner for 300 plus households? Between the paranoid compliance freaks and me trying to monitor these accts and all the others, I cant see doing this very effectively for too many clients.

Sep 8, 2009 11:18 am
rankstocks:

Take trailing earnings of financials out of the S&P 500 and the market is still significantly undervalued.  Too much cash on the sideline (8 Trillion in MM, CD's, Savings) making too little interest.  No sellers either....anyone shaken out of the market sold last Oct or Nov or this March/April.   Spreads still too wide on high yield also (buy signal).  As with all recovery phases, if you wait until everything looks great, you will have missed 60-70% of the upside.  Read my previous posts.  As the market dipped, you always buy into it.  As the market rebounds back to a record high, and it will, lighten up at the top. 

 
Dow 10k end of this year, 11k end of '10, 20k by 2016. 
 
My license plate should read DOW20K.  What do you think?