Prediction Thread

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Apr 29, 2009 11:59 pm

Thought it would be kind of fun for everyone to throw out their 12-18 month predictions on our industry in a separate thread...here are a few from me:



1.   BAC, C, WFC, and MS have to fully dilute their shareholders and ALL end up converting government and public preferred shares into common stock

2. JPM and GS attempt to pay the government back, then things worsen enough to where they end up keeping it

3. BAC and C end up being more than 50% owned by the government

4. UBS spins out the US wealth management division similar to what Citi did with Smith Barney, either with Stifel, or with WFC doing the same thing to their wealth management arm. The new entity is called Paine Webber, or a new name entirely

5. The RIA channel continues to add a tremendous amount of market share - mostly from wirehouse advisors bailing after disgust with the majors

6. The "small advisor" becomes a combined force in the industry. With all of the layoffs/pay cuts, the firms that they flee to gain market share and several smaller firms take a big step upward during this downturn

7. MS and SB merger easily overtakes ML as the biggest baddest boy around, and James Gorman becomes the leading major brokerage firm voice for the industry

8. The market turns down again and retests its lows

9. Unemployment hits 11%

Apr 30, 2009 7:09 am

could we be any more gloomy?  I predict you will lose more clients over the next year because of your negative vibe....

Just sayin'

Apr 30, 2009 8:30 am

Gee....that was fun!

Apr 30, 2009 8:50 am

America, if this guy's predictions hold true--------> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WbNRyxJxRVM

Apr 30, 2009 9:07 am

I don't think he is far off....

However I think the number of disenfranchised wires that form RIAs are grossly over estimated, most would rather just take another deal..
I don't think GS needs anymore money even if there is another downturn..
I think hungry "small advisors"(under $300K) who are hungry and angry and what happened to them can pick up tremedous market share from the Wires treading water.
 
Apr 30, 2009 11:05 am

How does thinking about any of this crap benefit you, your business, or your clients ?

Apr 30, 2009 11:25 am

It doesn't.  But while you're typing you don't have to call them and talk to them about how bad their portfolio looks right now. 

Apr 30, 2009 11:35 am

Spiff I am with you in that regard, but just the word "prediction" makes me physically ill. Nobody knows what is going to happen. Nobody saw this debacle coming. Nobody knows what the hell the government is going to do. But yet everyone has an opinion which makes all commentary on everything from sports to stocks just worthless!

Apr 30, 2009 12:55 pm

I predict that if I have one more client think that CD's are "safer" than government and GSE securities, I will take a dump on my desk and quit.

Apr 30, 2009 1:08 pm

CD's. I have some clients refusing CD's because they perceive these too as risky.  They are an rarity lately though. 

 
Most clients are over it all, it is us that is frozen and nervous. 
 
Apr 30, 2009 1:33 pm

I predict Chrysler will file for Chapter 11.

Apr 30, 2009 3:45 pm

Me too Snags....oh right it is 3:44 EST.

Apr 30, 2009 8:46 pm
Stocks rally, off and on, then collapse again, late this year or next.
2. Banks get hammered with credit card and commercial lending losses and go back to the Treasury, which nationalizes C and BAC.
3. Real estate rallies a bit, but never gets back to its peaks, and the long, painful process of writing down mortgage-related debt begins.
4. Independant advisors flourish. ... With the wirehouses exiting retail for wealth management, a huge opportunity opens for a national firm to market like crazy and become the WalMart of investing. Edward Jones misses the boat.
5. Deficit spending creates some kind of crash. Not sure what, maybe the U.S. dollar gets devalued when the Treasury's plan to spark doubledigit inflation fails.
6. Longterm investors -- i.e., those with attention spans longer than 5 minutes -- spend the next five years buying value stocks at historic prices and retire comfortably.
7. Unemployment hits 15 percent and everybody wakes up and says, 'Hey, you can't have a succesful economy without good-paying blue collar jobs.'
8. Advisors who figure out how to flourish in this atmosphere get rich.
9. Lakers win NBA title.






Apr 30, 2009 11:12 pm

Message

Topic: Prediction Thread

Posted: Today at 6:09am By Chazzy

could we be any more gloomy? I predict you will lose more clients over the next year because of your negative vibe....



Just sayin







i've never been more busy than I am right now...and folks aren't looking for optimism - they are looking for real solutions to this market - and to their goals...as is the same in ANY market - up or down



and the only consistent "positive vibes" I've seen in this business are the ones that cost their clients 30 -50% and most of their own net worth during these times...because reality slams them in the head while they have it in the clouds

May 1, 2009 9:06 am
JoeNatlanta:

Message
Topic: Prediction Thread
i've never been more busy than I am right now...and folks aren't looking for optimism - they are looking for real solutions to this market - and to their goals...as is the same in ANY market - up or down

and the only consistent "positive vibes" I've seen in this business are the ones that cost their clients 30 -50% and most of their own net worth during these times...because reality slams them in the head while they have it in the clouds

 
YAWN
 
Wow thats original. You are a GENIUS . I didnt know that clients needed solutions in an up or down market. Thats great advice
 
 
Please save your '30 second' pitch for clients. I can read through your BS
 
 
May 2, 2009 1:32 pm

A Prediction Thread?  Now that's right up ol' Soothsayer's alley:


1) Joe Biden gets caught on camera slapping Michelle Obama on the ass and yelling out, "We need to get some red beans and rice in this ol' girl!"  He is relieved of his duties immediately, becomes the new spokesperson for Hair Club for Men, and is replaced by John Kerry as VP.
2) Morgan Stanley/ Smith Barney breaks into two entirely separate platforms.  SmithMorgan retains the top third of the company's advisors and caters exclusively to HNW clients with $1MM or more.  A second firm, StanleyBarney, begins to sign thousands of commercial retail leases on the cheap next to Subways, MoneyStores, nail salons, dog groomers, cell phone stores, and H&R Block locations (that sit empty 9 1/2 months per year) to compete with Edward Jones for the "mass affluent".
3) Jeremy Maclin turns out to be the impact player of the 2009 NFL draft and leads the Eagles to a Super Bowl victory.  Matt Stafford becomes the highest paid clipboard carrier in the history of pro sports.
4) Stuck in 3rd place, and not a factor in the playoff picture, the Yankees trade A-Rod to a National League contender just before the trading deadline.  That team goes on to win the World Series.  (Dodgers maybe?)
5) The next shoe to drop in regard to the economy is commercial real estate--especially retail.  Saks and Nordstrom merge, Sears closes half their stores, and Pier 1 bites the dust.  There is a silver lining for advisors everywhere: Nordstrom actually holds a real sale and we all fill our closets with their best dress shirts for 50% off! 
6) Jim Weddle sells one of his cars to buy a solid gold implant to fill in that gap in his bottom teeth.  The gold implant has "JW" in diamonds.  He shows the new implant off for the first time on a broadcast announcing a special promotion whereby if you open a new IRA account, the client gets a full-size tube of BrylCreem. 
7) Merrill Lynch advisors receive a new compensaton plan with a top payout of 33%.  To achieve that level, the client must have their home loan, vacation home loan, auto loan, business loan, credit card, regular brokerage account, and two IRAs under Bank of Amerillca's care.  In protest, the advisors change the logo to a bull taking a crap.
8) 44 states sue UBS for withholding tax money from them, too.  UBS sells their US money management business in disgrace with all of the various lawsuits.  A better firm emerges from the ashes and becomes the new standard bearer for the wirehouse model. 
9) Arlen Specter loses his primary race, and Tim Geithner resigns as Treasury Secretary.  He is replaced by Paul Volcker who actually assembles a team of people to start dealing with the continued problems in the banking sector.  In an unrelated story, Barney Frank begins speech therapy to finally deal with his very annoying lisp.
10) Bucking the wind, solar initiatives of the government, private industry begins spending money to build natural gas compression facilities in greater numbers and move and transport natural gas more efficiently.  The US auto industry starts planning their comback by building cars that run on compressed gas.  Having very little natural gas in their part of the world, the Asian and European automakers are slow to react, and Americans embrace true energy independece.  The new compressed gas cars and trucks are huge hits with government tax incentives to buy them.  (Okay, this is just me wishin' and fishin', but wouldn't it be great?) 
May 2, 2009 2:20 pm

This would make a great "2009 Outlook" seminar.

May 3, 2009 9:12 pm
Soothsayer:
3) Jeremy Maclin turns out to be the impact player of the 2009 NFL draft and leads the Eagles to a Super Bowl victory.  Matt Stafford becomes the highest paid clipboard carrier in the history of pro sports.



  Maclin? Seriously? As a Dawg fan, I have to agree about Stafford though....

May 4, 2009 12:00 pm
Chazzy:
Soothsayer:
3) Jeremy Maclin turns out to be the impact player of the 2009 NFL draft and leads the Eagles to a Super Bowl victory.  Matt Stafford becomes the highest paid clipboard carrier in the history of pro sports.



  Maclin? Seriously? As a Dawg fan, I have to agree about Stafford though....

 
It's hilarious that out of everything in that post, this is the one you took issue with...
 
 
May 4, 2009 3:29 pm
SometimesNowhere:
Chazzy:
Soothsayer:
3) Jeremy Maclin turns out to be the impact player of the 2009 NFL draft and leads the Eagles to a Super Bowl victory.  Matt Stafford becomes the highest paid clipboard carrier in the history of pro sports.



  Maclin? Seriously? As a Dawg fan, I have to agree about Stafford though....

 
It's hilarious that out of everything in that post, this is the one you took issue with...
 
 

 
 
I thought that was the only one he was actually serious about....