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Jul 13, 2006 11:35 pm

I predict that MS will be the leader in the financial industry in 5 years.

Jul 14, 2006 7:05 am
newkid:

I predict that MS will be the leader in the financial industry in 5 years.


Why do you think so?


(You could be right, given that they've finally put that simpleton NASD Newbie out to pasture.)


Jul 14, 2006 9:58 am

.....and I predict they'll be owned by a foreign bank or insurance company.  What a muckin' fess of a firm.

Jul 14, 2006 10:05 am
Soothsayer:

.....and I predict they'll be owned by a foreign bank or insurance company.  What a muckin' fess of a firm.


This may shock you, but I disagree with you on both counts  

Jul 14, 2006 10:28 am
Philo Kvetch:
newkid:

I predict that MS will be the leader in the financial industry in 5 years.


Why do you think so?


(You could be right, given that they've finally put that simpleton NASD Newbie out to pasture.)



Can you imagine how important I must have been if my leaving could result in the firm becoming the leader in the industry?


An insignificant Vice President of Paperclips could not have that much impact no a firm--good or bad.  So I must have been very, very, important.


If I had worked for Morgan Stanley.


What is most likely to happen at Morgan Stanley over the next few years, if not sooner, is to unwind the union that was star crossed from the get go.


The retail side may end up being spun off as the old Dean Witter Reynolds so that the institutional legend Morgan Stanley can return to its core business without all the distractions from the retail side.


I'm telling you, the major firms are not all that happy with the results from  their retail efforts.  Clients are leaving at a time when compliance risks are rising along with the incredible costs of maintaining a network of branch offices.


It is not at all inconceivable that "Big Retail" simply disappears in favor of the Internet, CPAs, Attornies, Life Insurance based B/Ds, banks, and the Mom and Pops we now call the "Indy channel."

Jul 14, 2006 11:01 am
mikebutler222:
Soothsayer:

.....and I predict they'll be owned by a foreign bank or insurance company.  What a muckin' fess of a firm.


This may shock you, but I disagree with you on both counts  



Butler--


I have no doubt that YOU are a very fine advisor.  You appear to me to be very smart, funny, articulate, and quite accomplished in the art of transitive logic.  I like reading your posts, and you've been a great addition to the forum.  That being said, I think you work for a crappy firm.


Maybe my impression of MS is overly derived from the local office I am most familiar with, and my own family's (mother-in-law) dealings with the firm.  (She won a rather substantial award in arbitration.)  I can tell you this, Mike.  I have taken more accounts from MS in my career than the other four major wirehouses (ML, UBS, SB, Wachovia) combined.  But, again, that is my experience.  And, my little part of the world.  So, I don't say what I am saying for the sake of being argumentative, or just to be a jackass.  I simply have a very real lack of respect for your firm. 

Jul 14, 2006 11:18 am

The retail side may end up being spun off as the old Dean Witter Reynolds so that the institutional legend Morgan Stanley can return to its core business without all the distractions from the retail side.


And you "may" be hit by a bolt of lightening in the next ten minutes, but don't count on it.


I'm telling you, the major firms are not all that happy with the results from  their retail efforts. 


They could be happier, but the alternative is worse. Retail operations too weak to stand on their own w/o being swallowed by, say, and insurance company and institutional firms without the ability to reach the much larger retail market.


Clients are leaving at a time when compliance risks are rising along with the incredible costs of maintaining a network of branch offices.


Client are leaving? Also, I'd say compliance risks are falling as the "stock broker" business model falls away. The costs of a network of offices IS great, as is the profit potential.

Jul 14, 2006 11:24 am
Soothsayer:
mikebutler222:
Soothsayer:

.....and I predict they'll be owned by a foreign bank or insurance company.  What a muckin' fess of a firm.


This may shock you, but I disagree with you on both counts  



Butler--


I have no doubt that YOU are a very fine advisor.  You appear to me to be very smart, funny, articulate, and quite accomplished in the art of transitive logic.  I like reading your posts, and you've been a great addition to the forum. 


Thanks for the kind words.



 That being said, I think you work for a crappy firm.


As you admit later, your experience isn't with the firm, it's with an office.



Maybe my impression of MS is overly derived from the local office I am most familiar with, and my own family's (mother-in-law) dealings with the firm.  (She won a rather substantial award in arbitration.)  I can tell you this, Mike.  I have taken more accounts from MS in my career than the other four major wirehouses (ML, UBS, SB, Wachovia) combined.  But, again, that is my experience.  And, my little part of the world.  So, I don't say what I am saying for the sake of being argumentative, or just to be a jackass.  I simply have a very real lack of respect for your firm. 


Again, you are talking about your corner of the world, not the world itself. Sort of like the blind guy describing an elephant by grabbing the tail. I'd also add that there's a sorry legacy there from the Dean Witter days that really is ancient history.


Sorry to hear about your mother-in-law, but if we judged entire firms by single arbitration issues, there wouldn't be a firm in the business any of us would touch with a ten-foot pole. I would simply ask you to remember you're talking about a firm, not just the office you've encountered.


I'd imagine that if you mentioned the name of your firm someone here could tell you a horror story or two.  

Jul 14, 2006 1:14 pm

mike...our deferred comp just dropped by $1/share today. 

Jul 14, 2006 3:30 pm
NASD Newbie:
Philo Kvetch:
newkid:

I predict that MS will be the leader in the financial industry in 5 years.


Why do you think so?


(You could be right, given that they've finally put that simpleton NASD Newbie out to pasture.)



Can you imagine how important I must have been if my leaving could result in the firm becoming the leader in the industry?


An insignificant Vice President of Paperclips could not have that much impact no a firm--good or bad.  So I must have been very, very, important.



Hitler was important to Germany, too.  And the same thing happened to him; he was retarded and had to go.

Jul 14, 2006 5:06 pm
Philo Kvetch:
NASD Newbie:
Philo Kvetch:
newkid:

I predict that MS will be the leader in the financial industry in 5 years.


Why do you think so?


(You could be right, given that they've finally put that simpleton NASD Newbie out to pasture.)



that's funny.


Can you imagine how important I must have been if my leaving could result in the firm becoming the leader in the industry?


An insignificant Vice President of Paperclips could not have that much impact no a firm--good or bad.  So I must have been very, very, important.



Hitler was important to Germany, too.  And the same thing happened to him; he was retarded and had to go.

Jul 14, 2006 11:36 pm

I just joined MS recently and can tell you that I had the same experince (think MS was a big pile of &^$#).  Folks it is all about perception, ours that is, the industry people.  My clients "HATED" my prior firm, even though we had the number one of everything.  MS has a long way to go, but I can tell you that my clients (100% highnet worth 1mm+) love the firm and have brought in assets and have kept sending new money.  I just don't understand their behavior considering my own prior thoughts about MS. 


Now think about this, who has been in the news RECENTLY, in a more positive way, more than any other BD.  Its MS.  UBS keeps losing quality people all over the world, Merrill had Martha Stewart, SB is every day in the paper with some problem from recording customer conversation to someone suing them.  MS seems to be in the news everyday with news of some new hire or settling some lawsuit in a positive way.  I can tell you this because I have google searches set up to fecht article everyday on these firms and thats what I read.


Having said all this MS has a LONG WAY to go and I do see the potential. If they don't make it ONE firm, you guys are 100% right about a spin off.  The current organization is run like two firms that hate and don't undersatnd each other.  But every day we get emails about new management charged with the task of intergrating. And that feels good.  Their retail bond desk is one big joke, even their highnet worth bond desk is one big joke. They need one big overhall. Like the shows on TV about doing a car overall.  Thats what they need. Riping out the bad parts and puting in new ones.


So I think its a one way road for MS, intergrate or lose what ever they have left, and all the new people they have hired.  My bet is that they will do it in less than a year.

Jul 15, 2006 2:39 am

Dow 12,0000 by end of the year

Jul 15, 2006 9:05 am

Making the assumption MS is #1 if they get bought out by another firm/

bank? Or #1 standing on their own? I will take that bet if you mean on their

own.

Jul 15, 2006 9:13 am
bankrep1:

Dow 12,0000 by end of the year


As a financial professional you no doubt have very well considered reasons to be bullish.


Are they your philosophy that earnings never go down, and that since stocks trade a fixed multiple of earnings it is impossible for stocks to go down?


Or have you come up with other arguments, perhaps linked to a some Fibinacci number sequence, which when multiplied by an investors age yields a number which when divided by how far they are from home totals 12,000?

Jul 15, 2006 10:04 am

MS #1?

I asked mikeb several months to rebutt some of my issues with that statement. Recap: Blackrock apparently did not think that MS was better than Merrill; Discover seems to be the best part of their business (judged by large investors wanting it spun off to release its real value); I had another solid point but it escapes me... In any case, Morgan may one day be #1, but only if they continue to take the rest of ML's management and brokers... seems unlikely to me. But then they would just be ML in MS clothing.
Jul 15, 2006 11:51 am

Dow 12,000



Of course stocks go up and down, that is the nature of the beast. The market is going higher my friend so get ready to make some cash. This is a buying opportunity.



I could go into a discussion about how the 200 day moving average and the 50 day have linear fortitude and I see candlesticks no IRISH canlesticks (big ones) forming on the charts, but I rather just say dow 12,000 in fact that is going to be my new tagline.

Jul 15, 2006 12:02 pm

NASD Newbie-


You seem to be a seasoned vet with alot of well thougt opinions.


Care to give your 2006 year end DOW prediction? 


Jul 15, 2006 12:25 pm
Rugby:

NASD Newbie-


You seem to be a seasoned vet with alot of well thougt opinions.


Care to give your 2006 year end DOW prediction? 



Nope.  I'm not being paid to offer advice to you or anybody else.


If you pay attention to the things I discuss on this forum regarding strategy you'd know that I am neutral with a bearish skew--when I go to my August positions I will be more bearish than I am now.


I think this is a horrible time to consider entering this career--almost guaranteed failure.

Jul 15, 2006 12:39 pm
Incredible Hulk:

MS #1?

I asked mikeb several months to rebutt some of my issues with that statement.

Recap: Blackrock apparently did not think that MS was better than Merrill; Discover seems to be the best part of their business (judged by large investors wanting it spun off to release its real value); I had another solid point but it escapes me... In any case, Morgan may one day be #1, but only if they continue to take the rest of ML's management and brokers... seems unlikely to me. But then they would just be ML in MS clothing.


There is not doubt in my mind that current management is part of the problem.  Not all, but many branch managers, the real bad ones were let go and some went into production with the recent restructing. Its always a story with the old guard, us againist them (old MS vs MSDW). They need to re-tool the whole company and structure.  It can be done, keep in mind that we don't have a permanent National Sales Manager.  I heard Gorman say that he was acting head of GWM.


I have seen brokerage firms turn around very quickly from sales to trading.  Whenever I have seen it done, heads roll, even BAC is not the same as it was 3 years ago (downhill, too bad so sorrry).  But major heads need to roll and only a few have gone so far from the old MSDW days.  I have personally seen many of the old (not age but tenure with the frim) MSDW brokers resist many of the new initiatives. While many up and coming ones have steped up to the plate and have done an extrodinary job.


Like I said a complete Overhaul is required. I am seeing it first hand, but you can only do so much at a time with destroying the firm.


You need a strong management bench to do that, let see who Gorman picks to run sales and finish the job.