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Is MPT and buy and hold DEAD?

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Mar 5, 2009 2:15 am

Well, as an investor he’s a fool if he stayed entirely in stocks while predicting the disaster that has unfolded.
What if you sat down with a client and said: ‘The banks are insolvent. We’re going into a severe recession, with a 30 percent chance of a long, L-shaped recession. But I advise you to remain in stocks, including these funds that are weighted with financials.’




Mar 5, 2009 2:56 am

It is true that if you are reccomending stocks, Roubini’s opinions over the last year would not be a major part of your pitch.  Just sayin’

Mar 5, 2009 5:50 am

First of all, nobody will tell you when the semi will be coming.
Besides where’s the gain in sitting in the middle of the street? You
know the longer you sit there the more likely it is that you get run
over. So why sit there at all? Maybe we should just all stay in cash
forever and avoid the semi. It’s a bad analogy and doesn’t fit the
scenario.
* * * *

Yes it does.  He wrote a piece that I keep in my desk drawer, back in February of 2008.  He predicted the way this has all unfolded, from the housing bubble to the overlevered banks to the collapse of Wall Street to the massacre in the financials to the horrible recession we’re seeing now.

I don’t know how he invests, but if (1) he believed all those things were going to happen, then (2) invested a substantial portion of his net worth in assets that he knew would completely fall apart if he were right, then he’s a fool.  Sorry.  If you want to use a poker analogy, you don’t play a hand that you’re certain is going to lose.  "Hmmm.  I’ve got ten high.  I’ll think I’ll go all in.  Hey–you can’t win if you can’t play, right?"

Uh huh.  Maybe instead of conjuring Roubini, you should have gone with Kenny Rogers.  A simple song, that says a lot about poker.  And investing.

Mar 5, 2009 5:56 am

I guess what I’m saying is that I listened to Roubini and Schiff and a handful of others, and after getting beaten up, went to cash in August, and started aggressively shorting in September.  And he was a large part of the reason why I did so.

A little ironic, eh?  That if it’s true what you say, my clients and I profited enormously from his advice?  And he is down half, because he didn’t believe his own press releases?  Godalmighty.  Pete Rose had a problem, but he never bet that his teams would LOSE.