Mother MERrill Research Call

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Nov 25, 2006 10:44 am

from last month that was right on the $$$

Don Carson of Mother MERrill Lynch made a pretty nice call late last month on POT(ash). This call was timely and the upgrade was given because of a supply-demand crunch with potash (key ingredient in fertilizer production):

http://www.pinksheets.com/quote/chart.jsp?symbol=POT&dur ation=2-6-8-0-0-51

We happen to have a long position in this security which was initiated in mid July:

http://www.pinksheets.com/quote/chart.jsp?symbol=POT&dur ation=2-6-8-0-0-56

This security is somewhat seasonal cyclical with respect to revenues and earnings, hence there's a right time and wrong time to buy and sell each year.

3 months ago when it became apparent that Brian Hunter of Amaranth had a HUGE problem in natural gas land, we issued this "research" report:

It's time to smoke a lot more POT, since natural gas ain't very hot, thanks to Brian Hunter, the little snot:

http://www.pinksheets.com/quote/chart.jsp?symbol=POT&dur ation=2-6-8-0-0-53

Bobby McCann of Mother MERrill was sent a gratis copy of our research report. I surmise he was a little amused since he's an equity trader with a great sense of humor.

Mr. Butler, let's hear about the best call YOU have made for your clients in the past 6 months, 3 months, or even 30 days. I don't want to see anything off the "model portfolio" aka "distribution" list, either.

I am surprised good old Ameriprise (AMP:NYSE) with its cutesy baby boomer ads, doesn't do one which promotes smoking POT. Most baby boomers smoked a little in their youth and I am sure most baby boomers wish they had smoked a little with us 6 months ago at $82.50 per share.

Nov 25, 2006 5:12 pm

Yolanda have you finally lost your mind?

OH and by the way even though you’re not series 7 licensed I suspect it could be problematic for you to be posting what could be construed as a specific recommendation on this board, especially if you’re already long the stock.

Nov 25, 2006 5:18 pm

No, Joe, I have not lost my mind.

 I didn't say BUY some POT today. Mr. Carson did almost 30 days ago. Too bad you didn't load the boat, Joe. $120.00 to $145.00 in 30 days isn't a bad call, even for "late to da party" Mother MERrill Lynch!

You are correct. I am not Series 7 licensed. No need to be. I don't waste time peddling mutual funds and variable annuities to little old grannies. That's what Series 7 licensed wirehouse brokers do for a living!

Nov 25, 2006 5:19 pm

I bot ax @ 39 which is now NYX @ 109, not bad I think

Nov 25, 2006 5:21 pm

Awesome....

I made a few nice trades on NasDaq now known as NDAQ and the London Stock Exchange, now known as LSE.L, too.

Nov 25, 2006 5:25 pm

ditto...still own all 3.

Also like beaten down UTES and some retailers(JCP), not a solicitation, nor an offer to buy or sell, just one mans humble opinion.

Nov 25, 2006 5:36 pm

I haven't messed with and of the retailers too recently. Wish I hadn't missed Sears Holdings (SHLD) earlier this year. I still prefer shopping at JCP or NWN to SHLD any day of the week.

Dana Telsey of Bear used to be pretty good in that sector. She's running her own boutique research firm now. The other gal who covers it, Christine Augustine isn't quite as seasoned but what I like about her is she doesn't fall in love with them as long as Dana did. Dana had a few she had trouble saying HOLD or SELL on and it was not because of IB conflicts, either.

I typically stick with several sectors I know very well (banks, brokers, energy, natural resources, beverages, food processing, packaging, transportation). Very boring sectors, but if you manage to time the bottoms/tops pretty closely, they can be plenty of fun.

It will be interesting to see what NDAQ finally winds up paying for LSE.L.

FD: not a solicitation to do anything (even go shopping)

Nov 25, 2006 10:00 pm

[quote=ymh_ymh_ymh]

I haven’t messed with and of the retailers too recently. Wish I hadn’t missed Sears Holdings (SHLD) earlier this year. I still prefer shopping at JCP or NWN to SHLD any day of the week.

Dana Telsey of Bear used to be pretty good in that sector. She's running her own boutique research firm now. The other gal who covers it, Christine Augustine isn't quite as seasoned but what I like about her is she doesn't fall in love with them as long as Dana did. Dana had a few she had trouble saying HOLD or SELL on and it was not because of IB conflicts, either.

I typically stick with several sectors I know very well (banks, brokers, energy, natural resources, beverages, food processing, packaging, transportation). Very boring sectors, but if you manage to time the bottoms/tops pretty closely, they can be plenty of fun.

It will be interesting to see what NDAQ finally winds up paying for LSE.L.

FD: not a solicitation to do anything (even go shopping)

[/quote]

Dana Telsey is HOT HOT HOT!!
Nov 25, 2006 11:48 pm

Augustine's a blonde, though!

Do you remember Holly Becker, NasDaq wrecker at LEHman by any chance? She was a lot more timely than Blodget or Meeker and I don't think Jeff Bezos will ever forget her!

I am in great spirits tonight. Pete Carroll's sending Charlie Weis back to South Bend with a lot of respect for Southern Cal!

Nov 26, 2006 10:27 am

I don't waste time peddling mutual funds and variable annuities to little old grannies. That's what Series 7 licensed wirehouse brokers do for a living!

That was a completely unprofessional statement.  You have just gone down a few notches in my opinion.

Nov 26, 2006 10:36 am

Babs, sorry you feel that way.

I have never and will never peddle mutual funds and/or variable annuities to anyone (especialLEH little old ladies from Pasadena).

Speaking of Pasadena, I bet Charlie Weis' memories of that place are none too fond. Did you catch last night's game?

FD: I have never and will never peddle POT or pot (for that matter) to anyone, either.

Nov 26, 2006 12:18 pm

[quote=ymh_ymh_ymh]

Babs, sorry you feel that way.

I have never and will never peddle mutual funds and/or variable annuities to anyone (especialLEH little old ladies from Pasadena).

Speaking of Pasadena, I bet Charlie Weis' memories of that place are none too fond. Did you catch last night's game?

FD: I have never and will never peddle POT or pot (for that matter) to anyone, either.

[/quote]

It's OK.  Your posts are usually informative and professional so I was somewhat surprised at the tone you took.  There are some whose methods I don't necessarily agree with Dirk , but we can still all learn from each other.  However, positioning someone properly in a mutual fund or variable annuity, does not constitute peddling.  Even L.O.L.s from Pasedena may need growth and diversification in their portfolios and a variable annuity is not always a bad thing.

Nov 26, 2006 12:28 pm

I don't know what got into me yesterday other than being a little "anxious" over last night's game. I have many friends who are Notre Dame alums/fans. We made some bets. If they lost, they had to wear USC apparel in public all of this coming week. If I lost I would wear Notre Dame apparel and also become a nun (that was a joke, am not the Mother Theresa type).

Some clients need/want mutual funds. There are good mutual funds out there. Some need/want VA's. Ditto---those are appropriate investments for some clients. I respect brokers/advisors who practice "know thy client" and adivse their clients appropriately (to include good mutual funds and/or VA's).

I hope you and everyone else has a nice weekend. Apologies to anyone else I may have offended without meaning to do so.

Nov 26, 2006 7:57 pm

[quote=ymh_ymh_ymh]

Mr. Butler, let's hear about the best call YOU have made for your clients in the past 6 months, 3 months, or even 30 days. [/quote]

You mean, best trade, not best call, right? My best calls have been in doing things that wouldn't interest you as a trader. And you have to know the implications of registered reps giving out stock advice in a forum like this.

Nov 26, 2006 7:59 pm

[quote=ymh_ymh_ymh]

. I don't waste time peddling mutual funds and variable annuities to little old grannies. That's what Series 7 licensed wirehouse brokers do for a living!

[/quote]

Clearly, while you are well versed in much of the business, you haven't the slightest idea about life at a wirehouse. WADR...

Nov 26, 2006 8:03 pm

You're right---retail brokerage is not my schtick.

Does WADR trade on the NDAQ, otcbb, or the pinks?

Nov 27, 2006 10:18 pm

[quote=ymh_ymh_ymh]

You are correct. I am not Series 7 licensed. No
need to be. I don’t waste time peddling mutual funds and variable
annuities to little old grannies. That’s what Series 7 licensed
wirehouse brokers do for a living!

[/quote]



You are hilarious
Nov 27, 2006 10:19 pm

Oh, I forgot to ask what do you do for a living besides trading?

Nov 27, 2006 10:28 pm

Folks, do we still have to argue about Sell Side research in 2006-7?  Everyone knows its not worth the paper its written on.  

Nov 27, 2006 10:48 pm

[quote=ymh_ymh_ymh]… let’s hear about the best call YOU have made for your clients in the past 6 months, 3 months, or even 30 days. I don’t want to see anything off the “model portfolio” aka “distribution” list, either. [/quote]

6 months…NVDA
3 months…AAPL
12 months…AKAM or PD

Worst calls
MOT,QCOM,RHAT

I’m a tech junkie at heart but I tend to focus on the action.  Last year was oil and basic materials. This year tech. Next year I hope its biotech.

What about you?