Mels Nightmare. July 1982=Mar 2009

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Nov 19, 2009 5:28 pm

Last rolling 10 year as bad as this......ended jul 1982.   



you got no chance to get in. spx 100 to 300



mar 6 low 666 times 3 = 1998 THEN start trimming



PRICES

Date     Open     High     Low     Close     Avg Vol     Adj Close*

Apr-87     291.59     303.65     275.67     286.91     207,800,000     286.91

Mar-87     284.17     302.72     282.30     291.70     188,040,900     291.70

Feb-87     274.08     287.55     273.16     284.20     190,952,600     284.20

Jan-87     242.17     280.96     242.17     274.08     200,203,800     274.08

Dec-86     249.22     254.87     241.28     242.17     154,548,600     242.17

Nov-86     243.97     249.22     235.51     249.22     159,703,100     249.22

Oct-86     231.32     244.51     231.32     243.98     137,562,600     243.98

Sep-86     252.93     254.13     228.08     231.32     156,723,800     231.32

Aug-86     236.12     254.24     231.92     252.93     134,628,500     252.93

Jul-86     250.67     253.20     233.07     236.12     142,845,400     236.12

Jun-86     246.04     251.81     238.23     250.84     132,604,700     250.84

May-86     235.52     249.19     232.26     247.35     134,830,400     247.35

Apr-86     238.90     245.47     226.30     235.52     153,995,400     235.52

Mar-86     226.92     240.11     222.18     238.90     167,450,000     238.90

Feb-86     211.78     227.92     210.82     226.92     162,673,600     226.92

Jan-86     211.28     214.57     202.60     211.78     137,386,800     211.78

Dec-85     202.17     213.08     200.10     211.28     138,908,500     211.28

Nov-85     189.82     203.40     189.37     202.17     126,471,500     202.17

Oct-85     182.06     190.15     181.16     189.82     115,858,200     189.82

Sep-85     188.63     188.80     179.45     182.08     103,355,700     182.08

Aug-85     190.92     192.17     186.10     188.63     91,128,100     188.63

Jul-85     191.85     196.07     189.30     190.92     117,603,100     190.92

Jun-85     189.55     191.85     185.03     191.85     111,110,000     191.85

May-85     179.83     189.98     178.35     189.55     112,929,000     189.55

Apr-85     180.66     183.61     177.86     179.83     99,699,000     179.83

Mar-85     181.18     183.89     176.53     180.66     107,356,600     180.66

Feb-85     179.63     183.95     177.75     181.18     120,806,300     181.18

Jan-85     167.20     180.27     163.36     179.63     127,555,000     179.63

Dec-84     163.58     169.03     161.54     167.24     93,063,000     167.24

Nov-84     166.09     170.41     162.99     163.58     87,374,200     163.58

Oct-84     166.10     169.62     160.02     166.09     95,744,300     166.09

Sep-84     166.68     169.65     163.06     166.10     97,242,600     166.10

Aug-84     150.66     168.80     150.66     166.68     112,364,300     166.68

Jul-84     153.16     153.87     147.26     150.66     83,290,900     150.66

Jun-84     150.55     155.64     148.53     153.18     90,649,500     153.18

May-84     160.05     162.11     148.68     150.55     91,883,600     150.55

Apr-84     159.18     160.69     154.12     160.05     89,513,500     160.05

Mar-84     157.06     160.46     153.77     159.18     87,568,600     159.18

Feb-84     163.41     164.00     152.13     157.06     101,281,000     157.06

Jan-84     164.93     169.54     162.03     163.41     110,912,800     163.41

Dec-83     166.37     166.77     161.58     164.93     91,461,900     164.93

Nov-83     163.55     168.07     161.63     166.40     92,130,400     166.40

Oct-83     165.99     172.65     162.86     163.55     89,241,900     163.55

Sep-83     164.40     170.41     163.95     166.07     86,222,300     166.07

Aug-83     162.34     165.91     158.50     164.40     77,705,600     164.40

Jul-83     168.11     170.72     161.50     162.56     84,270,500     162.56

Jun-83     162.38     171.60     160.80     167.64     93,189,500     167.64

May-83     164.41     166.99     160.29     162.39     96,525,700     162.39

Apr-83     152.92     164.43     150.17     164.43     94,631,000     164.43

Mar-83     148.07     155.02     148.07     152.96     87,064,700     152.96

Feb-83     145.29     150.88     141.90     148.06     89,431,500     148.06

Jan-83     140.65     148.36     138.08     145.30     91,654,200     145.30

Dec-82     138.56     143.68     134.79     140.64     78,372,200     140.64

Nov-82     133.72     144.36     132.89     138.53     92,881,400     138.53

Oct-82     120.40     140.40     120.15     133.72     102,066,100     133.72

Sep-82     119.52     126.43     117.84     120.42     76,697,600     120.42

Aug-82     107.71     120.26     102.20     119.51     79,960,400     119.51

Jul-82     108.10     112.39     105.57     107.09     56,828,000     107.09

* Close price adjusted for dividends and splits.

Nov 19, 2009 6:08 pm
Shania Twain:

Last rolling 10 year as bad as this......ended jul 1982.   



you got no chance to get in. spx 100 to 300



mar 6 low 666 times 3 = 1998 THEN start trimming



PRICES

Date     Open     High     Low     Close     Avg Vol     Adj Close*

Apr-87     291.59     303.65     275.67     286.91     207,800,000     286.91

Mar-87     284.17     302.72     282.30     291.70     188,040,900     291.70

Feb-87     274.08     287.55     273.16     284.20     190,952,600     284.20

Jan-87     242.17     280.96     242.17     274.08     200,203,800     274.08

Dec-86     249.22     254.87     241.28     242.17     154,548,600     242.17

Nov-86     243.97     249.22     235.51     249.22     159,703,100     249.22

Oct-86     231.32     244.51     231.32     243.98     137,562,600     243.98

Sep-86     252.93     254.13     228.08     231.32     156,723,800     231.32

Aug-86     236.12     254.24     231.92     252.93     134,628,500     252.93

Jul-86     250.67     253.20     233.07     236.12     142,845,400     236.12

Jun-86     246.04     251.81     238.23     250.84     132,604,700     250.84

May-86     235.52     249.19     232.26     247.35     134,830,400     247.35

Apr-86     238.90     245.47     226.30     235.52     153,995,400     235.52

Mar-86     226.92     240.11     222.18     238.90     167,450,000     238.90

Feb-86     211.78     227.92     210.82     226.92     162,673,600     226.92

Jan-86     211.28     214.57     202.60     211.78     137,386,800     211.78

Dec-85     202.17     213.08     200.10     211.28     138,908,500     211.28

Nov-85     189.82     203.40     189.37     202.17     126,471,500     202.17

Oct-85     182.06     190.15     181.16     189.82     115,858,200     189.82

Sep-85     188.63     188.80     179.45     182.08     103,355,700     182.08

Aug-85     190.92     192.17     186.10     188.63     91,128,100     188.63

Jul-85     191.85     196.07     189.30     190.92     117,603,100     190.92

Jun-85     189.55     191.85     185.03     191.85     111,110,000     191.85

May-85     179.83     189.98     178.35     189.55     112,929,000     189.55

Apr-85     180.66     183.61     177.86     179.83     99,699,000     179.83

Mar-85     181.18     183.89     176.53     180.66     107,356,600     180.66

Feb-85     179.63     183.95     177.75     181.18     120,806,300     181.18

Jan-85     167.20     180.27     163.36     179.63     127,555,000     179.63

Dec-84     163.58     169.03     161.54     167.24     93,063,000     167.24

Nov-84     166.09     170.41     162.99     163.58     87,374,200     163.58

Oct-84     166.10     169.62     160.02     166.09     95,744,300     166.09

Sep-84     166.68     169.65     163.06     166.10     97,242,600     166.10

Aug-84     150.66     168.80     150.66     166.68     112,364,300     166.68

Jul-84     153.16     153.87     147.26     150.66     83,290,900     150.66

Jun-84     150.55     155.64     148.53     153.18     90,649,500     153.18

May-84     160.05     162.11     148.68     150.55     91,883,600     150.55

Apr-84     159.18     160.69     154.12     160.05     89,513,500     160.05

Mar-84     157.06     160.46     153.77     159.18     87,568,600     159.18

Feb-84     163.41     164.00     152.13     157.06     101,281,000     157.06

Jan-84     164.93     169.54     162.03     163.41     110,912,800     163.41

Dec-83     166.37     166.77     161.58     164.93     91,461,900     164.93

Nov-83     163.55     168.07     161.63     166.40     92,130,400     166.40

Oct-83     165.99     172.65     162.86     163.55     89,241,900     163.55

Sep-83     164.40     170.41     163.95     166.07     86,222,300     166.07

Aug-83     162.34     165.91     158.50     164.40     77,705,600     164.40

Jul-83     168.11     170.72     161.50     162.56     84,270,500     162.56

Jun-83     162.38     171.60     160.80     167.64     93,189,500     167.64

May-83     164.41     166.99     160.29     162.39     96,525,700     162.39

Apr-83     152.92     164.43     150.17     164.43     94,631,000     164.43

Mar-83     148.07     155.02     148.07     152.96     87,064,700     152.96

Feb-83     145.29     150.88     141.90     148.06     89,431,500     148.06

Jan-83     140.65     148.36     138.08     145.30     91,654,200     145.30

Dec-82     138.56     143.68     134.79     140.64     78,372,200     140.64

Nov-82     133.72     144.36     132.89     138.53     92,881,400     138.53

Oct-82     120.40     140.40     120.15     133.72     102,066,100     133.72

Sep-82     119.52     126.43     117.84     120.42     76,697,600     120.42

Aug-82     107.71     120.26     102.20     119.51     79,960,400     119.51

Jul-82     108.10     112.39     105.57     107.09     56,828,000     107.09

* Close price adjusted for dividends and splits.











Everyone stay calm..it doesn't matter if you clients lose all of their money, the mkt averages 10 % over the past 100 years.

Nov 19, 2009 6:30 pm

everthing is good,



Mortgage late payments are at RECORD highs,



unemployment 10 + %



the U.S. dollar is sinking



home prices deteriorating



S & P p/e at lofty levels



Debt as a % of gdp over 100 %



Banks STILL have billions of crap on the books. ( by the way this goes hand and hand with home prices falling)



Insiders selling stocks



Deficit exploding



Stuck in a war that can't be won



credit mkts for the most part frozen



wages flat for a long time



health care cost skyrocket



BUT NONE OF THIS MATTERS AT ALL BECAUSE THE STOCK MKT HAS ANNUALIZED 10 % SINCE FOREVER



Dec 31, 2009 statement

Client : why am I still not even from 2007 ?

FA : Hell, what are you worried about, the mkt annualizes 10 %

Client : But I have less money.

FA: That does not matter mr. Client look what happened from 1982 until 1999

Client : What about now . I'm still down 38 % from 2007

FA: Again don't you listen...the mkt was had 17 great years form 1982 until 1999. Why are you worried.

Client: What the past have to do with the present

FA: nothing really. I just have to keep telling you that because you pay me 1.5 % fee every year and my job is to convince you to hang in there. Remember , you money manager has out performed the mkt by 3 % points . So aren't you just thrilled that you could be down even more.

Client: I'm not sure I understand , but you are the professional.

FA: Good I'm glad I cleared that up for you. Now may I ask ...Do you know anyone else that could benefit from my services?







Nov 19, 2009 6:34 pm
What Me Worry:

everthing is good,



Mortgage late payments are at RECORD highs,



unemployment 10 + %



the U.S. dollar is sinking



home prices deteriorating



S & P p/e at lofty levels



Debt as a % of gdp over 100 %



Banks STILL have billions of crap on the books. ( by the way this goes hand and hand with home prices falling)



Insiders selling stocks



Deficit exploding



Stuck in a war that can't be won



credit mkts for the most part frozen



wages flat for a long time



health care cost skyrocket



BUT NONE OF THIS MATTERS AT ALL BECAUSE THE STOCK MKT HAS ANNUALIZED 10 % SINCE FOREVER



Dec 31, 2009 statement

Client : why am I still not even from 2007 ?

FA : Hell, what are you worried about, the mkt annualizes 10 %

Client : But I have less money.

FA: That does not matter mr. Client look what happened from 1982 until 1999

Client : What about now . I'm still down 38 % from 2007

FA: Again don't you listen...the mkt was had 17 great years form 1982 until 1999. Why are you worried.

Client: What the past have to do with the present

FA: nothing really. I just have to keep telling you that because you pay me 1.5 % fee every year and my job is to convince you to hang in there. Remember , you money manager has out performed the mkt by 3 % points . So aren't you just thrilled that you could be down even more.

Client: I'm not sure I understand , but you are the professional.

FA: Good I'm glad I cleared that up for you. Now may I ask ...Do you know anyone else that could benefit from my services?











Mel,



Again.   



The market is a discounting mechanism.

Goog the economy in july 1982



stag MF flation.   

the worst

30 yr was 16%



did u forget BRIC already



34% of cat tractors earnings come from N america.



industrial revolution times 1000.



stocks so cheap



ps if ur down 37% from 2007, your not doing your job



ppss   your looking out the back window









Nov 19, 2009 6:39 pm

1st my name is not Mel.

2nd, why was the S & P at record highs in April 2007...did it forget to discount the recession ? Looks like it got it wrong.

Nov 19, 2009 6:45 pm
What Me Worry:

1st my name is not Mel.

2nd, why was the S & P at record highs in April 2007...did it forget to discount the recession ? Looks like it got it wrong.





that might be ur dumbest comment to date

Nov 19, 2009 6:49 pm
Shania Twain:
What Me Worry:

1st my name is not Mel.

2nd, why was the S & P at record highs in April 2007...did it forget to discount the recession ? Looks like it got it wrong.





that might be ur dumbest comment to date







why was the otc at 5000 in 1999-2000 What was it discounting. That another bullsh*t made up saying that strategist say to keep clients in the game. It doesn't make any sense

Nov 19, 2009 7:08 pm

Shania,

 
You always point out historical facts, yet you MISS the most obvious. You are truly an unbelievable person. How about something as simple as 20 year market cycles. That is something as old as time. FYI.....The bottom typically comes 4-5 years before the new bull begins. That is as basic as it gets. There is much more, but why bother with you. Heaven help your clientele.
Nov 19, 2009 7:09 pm

Disney's makin moves

Nov 19, 2009 7:20 pm
howboutshoeshine:

Shania,

 
You always point out historical facts, yet you MISS the most obvious. You are truly an unbelievable person. How about something as simple as 20 year market cycles. That is something as old as time. FYI.....The bottom typically comes 4-5 years before the new bull begins. That is as basic as it gets. There is much more, but why bother with you. Heaven help your clientele.


 
 
Technically, a bull market starts at the bottom of a bear, not 5 years later.
Nov 19, 2009 7:23 pm
Primo:
howboutshoeshine:

Shania,

 
You always point out historical facts, yet you MISS the most obvious. You are truly an unbelievable person. How about something as simple as 20 year market cycles. That is something as old as time. FYI.....The bottom typically comes 4-5 years before the new bull begins. That is as basic as it gets. There is much more, but why bother with you. Heaven help your clientele.


 
 
Technically, a bull market starts at the bottom of a bear, not 5 years later.
 
Pure genious.
Nov 19, 2009 7:37 pm
howboutshoeshine:
Primo:
howboutshoeshine:

Shania,

 
You always point out historical facts, yet you MISS the most obvious. You are truly an unbelievable person. How about something as simple as 20 year market cycles. That is something as old as time. FYI.....The bottom typically comes 4-5 years before the new bull begins. That is as basic as it gets. There is much more, but why bother with you. Heaven help your clientele.


 
 
Technically, a bull market starts at the bottom of a bear, not 5 years later.
 
Pure genious.

 
 
or genius
Nov 20, 2009 12:53 am
howboutshoeshine:
Primo:
howboutshoeshine:

Shania,

 
You always point out historical facts, yet you MISS the most obvious. You are truly an unbelievable person. How about something as simple as 20 year market cycles. That is something as old as time. FYI.....The bottom typically comes 4-5 years before the new bull begins. That is as basic as it gets. There is much more, but why bother with you. Heaven help your clientele.


 
 
Technically, a bull market starts at the bottom of a bear, not 5 years later.
 
Pure genious.
 
Great spelling stupid!!! Did I miss a dull point again?