Market Analysts Crack Me Up

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Jan 23, 2008 10:06 am

Citibank analyst predicted we would be up around 18% from yesterday's low by the end of the Year. (hope so, but that would be quite a jump considering current economic conditions)

Skrainka talked about a great buying opportunity for the "long term investor" on CNBC yesterday.  (Maybe so but the current long term holders are toast for half a decade or more)

BAC Analyst said we won't be in a recession until the S&P drops another 4% from yesterday's close. (Economists use a completely different dictionary than the average man).

Cramer (not really an analyst) changes his mind every day.  (at least it seems like it, I don't pay that much attention to him)

These guys just live in an imaginary little world of their own.  I wonder where they keep their money at?  I think that should be the next disclosure rule.  I want to see what is in the analysts and Mutual Fund Managers portfolios before they run out and tell people what they should be buying.


Jan 23, 2008 10:27 am

Oh...don't we all love CNBS!

Jan 23, 2008 11:36 am

IVY funds had a good call out to the reps yesterday. 

Franklin has one today.
Jan 23, 2008 11:57 am

There is plenty of negative press out there also.  I tend to buy into the positive thinkers camp and believe that while we may not be at the low, we're pretty close to it and will end the year considerably higher than where we sit at today.  A majority of earnings reports (with the exception of banks and real-estate related stocks) are at or above guidance and stocks are trading at a 17-year low on P/E multiples when considering 2008 earnings estimates (13X).  I don't see a repeat of 2000-2002 in any way, shape or form and I think the possibility of a depression is very remote.  Credit card debt, for all doomsdayer's gloom is a very small part of consumer assets (less than 10% accoring to our morning conference call).  Certainly banks will take seom write-offs as they do every cycle, but I think we're overly pessimistic here and I intend to reduce client cash positions over the next 3-4 months to take advantage of that.

 
You can have your gold and treasuries...I'll be buying stocks and munis.
Jan 23, 2008 1:26 pm

FWIW Dorsey Wright gave me a good heads up that conditions were right for this pullback.  Thank goodness....although of course now that it's happening, I wish I'd done more to prepare.  It always feels like that in such a tough market.

Anyway-now their indicators are suggesting that we are in a deeply oversold state, although we have not yet seen an abatement of selling pressure.  Suggests we aren't there yet but getting much closer to a bottom.

When I see some of the negative comments you guys are posting, plus the increased stridency on CNBC and Fox Business, it makes me think that we're getting close to the end of this, too.

And the fact that I really don't feel like eating right now...

These are the times where we earn out keep.  Good job Broker7, just don't get too caught up in your doomsday scenario and miss an opportunity.

Jan 23, 2008 1:42 pm

I'm not negative.... I am pretty positive the market still has more to drop 

In the last 2 real recessions 70's and 2000's the S&P dropped 45%.  I am not saying we will drop that far, but we haven't really even hit 20% yet.  I think we will fall somewhere in between.

Jan 23, 2008 2:38 pm
new_indy:

I'm not negative.... I am pretty positive the market still has more to drop 

In the last 2 real recessions 70's and 2000's the S&P dropped 45%.  I am not saying we will drop that far, but we haven't really even hit 20% yet.  I think we will fall somewhere in between.

 
I don't think the current market or economy even remotely resembles those times.  There were some MAJOR catalysts at those times(Nixon resigns, oil embargos, major recession, tech bubble, 9/11, etc.), which I believe dwarfs the mortgage meltdown.  Although the current meltdown has far-reaching implications, much of the pullback is emotional right now.  7 years ago, when PE's were like 50 on the DOW STOCKS, there was only one way for the market to go.
Jan 23, 2008 3:04 pm

You may be right, only time will tell.  We have our own set of problems right now that are different.  I would however, be careful discounting the possibility of a similar correction.  Anytime someone says "this time it's different"..... you know the rest.

Jan 23, 2008 4:20 pm
joedabrkr:

FWIW Dorsey Wright gave me a good heads up that conditions were right for this pullback.  Thank goodness....although of course now that it's happening, I wish I'd done more to prepare.  It always feels like that in such a tough market.

Anyway-now their indicators are suggesting that we are in a deeply oversold state, although we have not yet seen an abatement of selling pressure.  Suggests we aren't there yet but getting much closer to a bottom.

When I see some of the negative comments you guys are posting, plus the increased stridency on CNBC and Fox Business, it makes me think that we're getting close to the end of this, too.

And the fact that I really don't feel like eating right now...

These are the times where we earn out keep.  Good job Broker7, just don't get too caught up in your doomsday scenario and miss an opportunity.

 
No eating!! Quick sell your MCD.  Joe stopped eating.  Man, I don't think the market could ever go down far enough for me to stop eating.  Maybe eat more comfort food, but not stop all together.   
 
Jones republished a letter this morning from one of the founding fathers of our company that I think really speaks well to the way advisors should be thinking right now.  The letter is one to his clients after 50 years in the biz:
 
"My only regret is that I did not hav ethe eloquence to persuade even more of them to aggressively seize opportunities available when the public generally (at almost regular intervals), becomes overly pessimistic.  Periods of market decline - such as we are now "enjoying" - offer real bargains.  However, it takes poise, faith and real courage to do the one thing that enables you to benefit - namely - invest before optimism again becomes wide-spread, as it surely will. 
 
After all, we will spend the rest of our lives in the future - not in the past.  As you can learn from many sources...the future looks mighty attractive." 
 
 
Jan 23, 2008 4:32 pm
Spaceman Spiff:
joedabrkr:

FWIW Dorsey Wright gave me a good heads up that conditions were right for this pullback.  Thank goodness....although of course now that it's happening, I wish I'd done more to prepare.  It always feels like that in such a tough market.

Anyway-now their indicators are suggesting that we are in a deeply oversold state, although we have not yet seen an abatement of selling pressure.  Suggests we aren't there yet but getting much closer to a bottom.

When I see some of the negative comments you guys are posting, plus the increased stridency on CNBC and Fox Business, it makes me think that we're getting close to the end of this, too.

And the fact that I really don't feel like eating right now...

These are the times where we earn out keep.  Good job Broker7, just don't get too caught up in your doomsday scenario and miss an opportunity.

 
No eating!! Quick sell your MCD.  Joe stopped eating.  Man, I don't think the market could ever go down far enough for me to stop eating.  Maybe eat more comfort food, but not stop all together.   
 
Jones republished a letter this morning from one of the founding fathers of our company that I think really speaks well to the way advisors should be thinking right now.  The letter is one to his clients after 50 years in the biz:
 
"My only regret is that I did not hav ethe eloquence to persuade even more of them to aggressively seize opportunities available when the public generally (at almost regular intervals), becomes overly pessimistic.  Periods of market decline - such as we are now "enjoying" - offer real bargains.  However, it takes poise, faith and real courage to do the one thing that enables you to benefit - namely - invest before optimism again becomes wide-spread, as it surely will. 
 
After all, we will spend the rest of our lives in the future - not in the past.  As you can learn from many sources...the future looks mighty attractive." 
 
 



lol...smart arse.

My appetite recovered enough to handle some Lion's Choice.  One of my favorite comfort foods.

Good letter.  Appreciate your sharing.

Jan 23, 2008 10:12 pm

Asian Contagion, Long Term Capital Management, Savings and Loan Crisis - every time we go thru something like this, mr retail investor (ad some professionals) talk about how "it different this time,, we are in uncharted waters, we've never seen anything like this". They talk about how the world as we knew it will cease to exist.

And everytime, we come out of it, and the ones making money are the ones that were buying while everyone else was preparing for the financial worlds funeral.
 
I have been doing some buying the last few days. Lets call it nibbling. I'm not saying our troubles are over, even with todays breath of fresh air. I'm just saying I am not smart enough to pick the bottom, Dorseys indicators are pretty good, and I think we are a lot closer to the bottom than the top.
 
just my 50 cents.