Lehman Bros

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Sep 12, 2008 4:51 pm

any lehman brokers out there? curious if there is going to be a mass exodus...

Sep 12, 2008 5:27 pm

Here's a total stab in the dark:

 
Everyone thinks a LEH deal will get done before Asian markets open up on Monday.  However, no new news will come out and the market will puke with the uncertainty.  Since everyone was on the "LEH deal will get done" bandwagon, there will be a big sell-off Monday or Tuesday.
 
Now let's go for the parlay:
 
LEH deal still falls through, nothing happens over the weekend.  Add in WAMU and AIG coming out with even worse news on Monday's analyst conference call, BAC backs away from WAMU, now you have all three, possibly four with MER, in the shitter causing an even larger sell off early-mid next week.  Could it possibly be a large enough sell off for capitulation?????
 
Or else none of this happens.  The thing is these four huge institutions are in trouble at the same time.  There is only so much capital to go around.  Something has to give.
Sep 12, 2008 6:56 pm

Fed bailout...buyout..


death to free market capitalism

Sep 14, 2008 7:47 pm

Ehhh, without a deal in place for LEH, how bad do you think it will be tomorrow? 

Sep 14, 2008 7:51 pm

if a LEH deal does not get done, it will be great for treasuries.  I am ok with that.

Sep 15, 2008 3:36 am

Nice call Snaggletooth. Not such a "stab" on your part.

Sep 15, 2008 9:56 am
upn8th:

Nice call Snaggletooth. Not such a "stab" on your part.

 
Thanks, I'm still trying to get the lottery numbers right...would really like an early retirement...no such luck yet.
Sep 15, 2008 4:08 pm
snaggletooth:

Here's a total stab in the dark:

 
Everyone thinks a LEH deal will get done before Asian markets open up on Monday.  However, no new news will come out and the market will puke with the uncertainty.  Since everyone was on the "LEH deal will get done" bandwagon, there will be a big sell-off Monday or Tuesday.
 
Now let's go for the parlay:
 
LEH deal still falls through, nothing happens over the weekend.  Add in WAMU and AIG coming out with even worse news on Monday's analyst conference call, BAC backs away from WAMU, now you have all three, possibly four with MER, in the shitter causing an even larger sell off early-mid next week.  Could it possibly be a large enough sell off for capitulation?????
 
Or else none of this happens.  The thing is these four huge institutions are in trouble at the same time.  There is only so much capital to go around.  Something has to give.
 
Holy shit.  DOW down 500 points.  I didn't think it would be that bad....
Sep 15, 2008 4:18 pm

MER trading at $17.68 and BAC buyout is for $29.

BAC down 20% in one day.  It is really tough to fathom how we got in such  an awful predicament.

Sep 15, 2008 4:20 pm
Rugby:

It is really tough to fathom how we got in such  an awful predicament.

 
One word: greed.  Makes people stupid.
Sep 15, 2008 5:59 pm
Rugby:

MER trading at $17.68 and BAC buyout is for $29.

BAC down 20% in one day.  It is really tough to fathom how we got in such  an awful predicament.

Can you not do math?? This is an ALL stock deal!! The 29 price for MER is predicated on the price of BAC.....at Friday's close of 33.74 X .8595 shares of BAC stock = 29.  The intrinsic value of the deal based on BAC's close is now 22.82....hell it could be even lower tommorrow....fun fun fun
Sep 15, 2008 8:17 pm
shredder:
Rugby:

MER trading at $17.68 and BAC buyout is for $29.

BAC down 20% in one day.  It is really tough to fathom how we got in such  an awful predicament.

Can you not do math?? This is an ALL stock deal!! The 29 price for MER is predicated on the price of BAC.....at Friday's close of 33.74 X .8595 shares of BAC stock = 29.  The intrinsic value of the deal based on BAC's close is now 22.82....hell it could be even lower tommorrow....fun fun fun



OK...It is a stock swap deal.  CNBC telling the masses its a 50 bil deal...not so fast...based on BAC closing price on Friday.

Lets see if it MER can fetch the $17 a share its trading .  It could go to single digits if BAC, market gets bloodier.  I see the MER shareholders suits have already started...They must know the $29 will never happen...

Sep 15, 2008 8:30 pm
Rugby:
shredder:
Rugby:

MER trading at $17.68 and BAC buyout is for $29.

BAC down 20% in one day.  It is really tough to fathom how we got in such  an awful predicament.

Can you not do math?? This is an ALL stock deal!! The 29 price for MER is predicated on the price of BAC.....at Friday's close of 33.74 X .8595 shares of BAC stock = 29.  The intrinsic value of the deal based on BAC's close is now 22.82....hell it could be even lower tommorrow....fun fun fun



OK...It is a stock swap deal.  CNBC telling the masses its a 50 bil deal...not so fast...based on BAC closing price on Friday.

Lets see if it MER can fetch the $17 a share its trading .  It could go to single digits if BAC, market gets bloodier.  I see the MER shareholders suits have already started...They must know the $29 will never happen...



Lawsuits...why 17 bucks is even better than the zero they would have had!

Sep 17, 2008 12:54 pm

Former Lehman guy here, from the 80's. Also a former Merrill guy, too.


 
I wonder how many times the word "hubris" has been used to describe the management of these firms, especially Dick Fuld?