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Jan 30, 2010 2:06 pm

I will check back when the DOW falls another 1000 pts. This is a waste of time.

Jan 30, 2010 7:54 pm

I thought you left?

Jan 30, 2010 8:00 pm

It's not really shoeshine.  There appear to be several people mocking him.  Not that much like meletoi mocking meletio, but it's something right?

Jan 30, 2010 8:52 pm

[quote=howboutshoeshine]





It's very tough to have to deal with being so wrong,



(quote)



I understand.    Cover your short and get long here.



Take the hit. Accept your mistake.   It's ok



Jan 30, 2010 10:03 pm
howboutshoeshine:

I will check back when the DOW falls another 1000 pts. This is a waste of time.

 
Go play in traffic Mr. Mom. How painful is it that your wife is so sick of watching you fail that you are now a stay at home Dad and you have no kids ?
Jan 30, 2010 10:07 pm
mlgone:
Moraen:

It's not really shoeshine.  There appear to be several people mocking him.  Not that much like meletoi mocking meletio, but it's something right?




I think that was him in this thread Moraen.............

 
That really wasn't Moraen, there are several imposters...
Jan 31, 2010 10:30 am
iceco1d:

I'd like to address something Shoeshine.

For us to bust through the lows...When the Dow was in the 6,000's, the world was coming to an end.  The major money center banks should have all collapsed.  The U.S. Auto industry was on the brink of failure, sans Ford.  Unemployment was going up quickly.  Foreclosures & bank failures were skyrocketing.  Oil @ 147 a barrel. 

So, if you are looking at "what's to come" in the stock market, from a macro perspective...what's go to happen for the market to go LOWER than it was?  Liquidity is available (after all, the BIGGEST problem was the swap market) for banks.  FDIC limit is up.  Unemployment rising at a much slow rate.  Same for foreclosures.  Some real estate markets flattened out, or even beginning to rebound.  Automakers stable.  Oil stable.  Gold up, but stable. 

Lets keep something in mind...the argument here (or one of them) is that stimulus money is drying up, and people aren't back to work, and they are spending less regardless.  True.

However, there are now fewer competitors to compete for that smaller number of dollars being spent.  Bear Stearns & Lehman.  Wamu, Wachovia, Indy Mac, etc.  No Pontiac, and several other bloated brands & auto lineups.  Best Buy doesn't have to compete with Circuit City anymore.  Borders will soon be out of Barnes & Noble's hair. 

You get the point.  Yes, less dollars...but also less companies vying for them. 

Now, I'm not saying that I think we are headed up (stock market wise) either.  But I don't think we are going to break 9,000 on the Dow again.  In fact, I'd say we are going to hang out between 9,500 and 10,500 for awhile now.  Maybe see Dow breach 11,000 about 18 months from now. 

That's my take anyway. 

PS - Anyone who has been to a Coach store, Red Lobster, Olive Garden, Nine West, Gap, Banana Republic, or Starbucks lately would have a hard time knowing that we are in the midst of "the worst recession since the 1930's."



I agree with some of what you say ICE. However, the market technicals tell a very different story. You had a ridiculous rally go on with 1/3 the trading volume than the previous 5 years. It wasn't the "good" companies that got the boost either it was the companies that were 70%-90% Down. If you don't believe that to be true, pull up a chart on any BIG bank, any materials company, or any consumer discretionary company, real estate, home builder, there are more, but you see my point. The market runs in 18 year cycles and when it falls, everything falls with it. It is simply revaluing the market.



Take my grandfather buying a house...His income was 30k and his brand new home cost him 20k, his brand new car cost $1,200
 
Me- I make around 120-130k my house cost 565k..my brand new car 36k. And I do very well compared to most of my friends.
 
DO you see the problem? We have to work these excesses off. This is very traditional in capitalism and no govt. program or anything else for that matter can stop it. Income and spending have to fall back in line. And they WILL. Remember in the 1930's, 75% of people were not out of work and were not struggling. They were just fine and cutting back. ( that era followed the ROARING 20"s ) that should have a familiar ring ( BULL 90's ) There was also a 53% DOW rally of the lows before the market fell 80% further. ( that rally took 8 months )
Jan 31, 2010 10:42 am
howboutshoeshine:

I will check back when the DOW falls another 1000 pts. This is a waste of time.







Now come on shoe buddy. You know what you said. It's time to go buddy, you have to bind all those portfolio's for the real FA's by 8am tomorrow. Time to go

Jan 31, 2010 10:50 am
iceco1d:

I'd like to address something Shoeshine.For us to bust through the lows...When the Dow was in the 6,000's, the world was coming to an end. The major money center banks should have all collapsed. The U.S. Auto industry was on the brink of failure, sans Ford. Unemployment was going up quickly. Foreclosures & bank failures were skyrocketing. Oil @ 147 a barrel. So, if you are looking at "what's to come" in the stock market, from a macro perspective...what's go to happen for the market to go LOWER than it was? Liquidity is available (after all, the BIGGEST problem was the swap market) for banks. FDIC limit is up. Unemployment rising at a much slow rate. Same for foreclosures. Some real estate markets flattened out, or even beginning to rebound. Automakers stable. Oil stable. Gold up, but stable. Lets keep something in mind...the argument here (or one of them) is that stimulus money is drying up, and people aren't back to work, and they are spending less regardless. True.However, there are now fewer competitors to compete for that smaller number of dollars being spent. Bear Stearns & Lehman. Wamu, Wachovia, Indy Mac, etc. No Pontiac, and several other bloated brands & auto lineups. Best Buy doesn't have to compete with Circuit City anymore. Borders will soon be out of Barnes & Noble's hair. You get the point. Yes, less dollars...but also less companies vying for them. Now, I'm not saying that I think we are headed up (stock market wise) either. But I don't think we are going to break 9,000 on the Dow again. In fact, I'd say we are going to hang out between 9,500 and 10,500 for awhile now. Maybe see Dow breach 11,000 about 18 months from now. That's my take anyway. PS - Anyone who has been to a Coach store, Red Lobster, Olive Garden, Nine West, Gap, Banana Republic, or Starbucks lately would have a hard time knowing that we are in the midst of "the worst recession since the 1930's."







yep..



I buy off on Gross's "new normal".

Clip 1.5% off GDP.

fine



But, what he and many are missing is the REAL story.

The REAL new normal. That is much bigger then the hit US consumer has taken



BRIC's



The world changed Nov 20, 2008.



Look at a chart on Brazil from nov 20, 2008 and a chart on the s and p or W Europe........



You bears are missing the forest for the trees.



Monster, massive global economy with BILLIONS of more people in "free" market economies.



Subprime will be a blip on the MONSTER uptrend of the new global economy



people missed tech bubble in 2000

people missed sub prime bubble in 2008



Now the market has trained everyone to NOT miss the next bubble.........



guess what?   aint happening.



Like always...the market will prove the most number of people wrong.



people so under invested

buy and hold is dead

stocks suck

have not made money in a decade

they wont get me this time

blah blah blah



its SO easy to be bearish.

difficult to stay the course

the average rock head small investor is OUT



WONT GET ME THIS TIME



there were no Mel's

there were no young guys certain stocks were going lower.

market has bithc slapped everyone.......twice in a decade



the trap?   looking out the back window of the last decade



JUST like 1982 or other major end to secular bears



read some headlines and articles from 1982.



the seeds of free markets have been sown in many areas across the globe.



it REALLY has become a global economy

these seeds are now GROWING.



subprime and tech bubble are BLINDING PEOPLE from the REAL STORY























Jan 31, 2010 11:14 am

Im even starting to like the jumping weather bimbi.



The Ta Ta's

The smile

The lips....



I am a desperate, pathetic person...



Jan 31, 2010 11:35 am

Shania- it REALLY has become a global economy
these seeds are now GROWING.

 
I agree with this and have told you that before. However, these markets are not going to skyrocket as the US gets crushed. If you look at the etf's for these countries ( just to make it easy ) take the low value on them, Nov.08' and add 10-15 % that is where I will begin to buy them. I have no idea if the lows are in for those countries, but I will begin buying them at those levels. Nov.08' proved one other thing......In bear markets, markets fall together.
Jan 31, 2010 11:48 am

Stimulus money drying up.  Isn't there about $600 billion not doing anything right now? 

The Treasury hired an investment management firm to manage repaid TARP money.

Jan 31, 2010 3:54 pm

cat tractor





Look at Cat tractors annual report.

67% of revs come outside of N America.   Look at 2001. 30%.



F the US consumer.

F all the negative bs (looking out back window)

F inflation   (inflation is WAGES.   billions of people working for a buck a day)

without any real inflation pressure it will allow all this Govt. candy to work and not mess financial assets up with inflation

Ok



We wont be giving home mortgages to homeless peeps.



We wont be letting dumb asses press up and borrow money off their inflated houses to buy HDTV's at BBY.



We wont be packaging this toxic bs and shipping it off to Iceland



so what?



ok, last few years have been a bit of a Ponzi.   old news



knock a bit off GDP. big MF deal.



China creates a new Chicago about every quarter.....



The future of humans, free markets and personal individual freedom has NEVER been brighter then right now.



COMPETITION FOR GLOBAL RESOURCES.



There is no doubt that we will blow through the 07 highs on all commods.   147 on oil will seem cheap.







Jan 31, 2010 5:56 pm

One of my favorite overweights right now...global commodities.  LPL has been singing that tune for nearly a year now and it's one of the reasons my portfolios crushed the S&P last year.  Another theme that worked very well, especially over the first half of last year...preferreds.  I've since taken much of the money allocated there and moved to high-yield.  LPL's forecast for this year is mid-teens for US equities over the first half and giving back as much as half of that over the second half to end the year up 8-9% (S&P 500).

 
Ice said it vey well...and yes, it's easy to be a bear.  Stocks climb a wall of worry and there's no question we have that now.  Technicals are a self-fulfilling prophecy and can influence markets for short periods of time.  Long-term, it's all about the fundamentals and there's plenty of evidence that fundamentals are improving.  I'm gonna stay long...not all in stocks, but long one way or the other.  You're welcome to do otherwise, but don't bring your sky is falling crap here and expect us all to anoint you as the prophet.  In the end, all you have is a forecast...issued by a guy that makes considerably less than a small midwest indy...sheesh.
Feb 1, 2010 9:47 am
Indyone:

One of my favorite overweights right now...global commodities.  LPL has been singing that tune for nearly a year now and it's one of the reasons my portfolios crushed the S&P last year.  Another theme that worked very well, especially over the first half of last year...preferreds.  I've since taken much of the money allocated there and moved to high-yield.  LPL's forecast for this year is mid-teens for US equities over the first half and giving back as much as half of that over the second half to end the year up 8-9% (S&P 500).

 
Ice said it vey well...and yes, it's easy to be a bear.  Stocks climb a wall of worry and there's no question we have that now.  Technicals are a self-fulfilling prophecy and can influence markets for short periods of time.  Long-term, it's all about the fundamentals and there's plenty of evidence that fundamentals are improving.  I'm gonna stay long...not all in stocks, but long one way or the other.  You're welcome to do otherwise, but don't bring your sky is falling crap here and expect us all to anoint you as the prophet.  In the end, all you have is a forecast...issued by a guy that makes considerably less than a small midwest indy...sheesh.
 
Feb 1, 2010 11:04 am

Yeah, your laughter is real credible shoeshine boy.


 
You really kicked my ass today.
Feb 1, 2010 6:36 pm

NYSE UP Volume to Down Volume just under 6:1


Advance decline jsut under 4:1


Solid day. Not stellar, but solid.


Jackass  -  go away
Feb 1, 2010 8:45 pm

Sportsfreak- lowest volume since Jan. 19th, other wise correct-Also...I did not say to exit the market until 10/29/09 and I call the doollar bottom along with shorting Gold. So:

 
GO AWAY
 
Ferris- I NEVER said that stupid
 
Indy- I laugh because I have yet to be wrong on this board and I have NO credibility

 
Feb 1, 2010 9:27 pm
Ferris Bueller:

ur a fagg0t

 
Feb 1, 2010 9:29 pm
mlgone:
howboutshoeshine:

Sportsfreak- lowest volume since Jan. 19th, other wise correct-Also...I did not say to exit the market until 10/29/09 and I call the doollar bottom along with shorting Gold. So:

 

GO AWAY

 

Ferris- I NEVER said that stupid

 

Indy- I laugh because I have yet to be wrong on this board and I have NO credibility



 



In your real life do you have major problems? WTF is going on with you? How many genius's in this besides besides you net 120K????? LOL your an idiot

 
MY future's so bright...I gotta wear shades