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Jan 28, 2010 1:59 pm

bears jerking off again......



emg mark

tech

ag

infra



new highs soon

Jan 28, 2010 3:53 pm
mlgone:

waiting for this......................

 
The GOP is really embarassing themselves on the floor right now.  Filabusting Bernanke????? Wait who put him in that spot.....................oh yeah the GOP.  3:20pm we rally back after the vote.



Come on man... That was not cool trying to make a prediction like that.

Jan 28, 2010 4:00 pm

Thanks god there's chumps like you so the real money has someone to sell to

Jan 28, 2010 4:01 pm

If I get much longer I won't be able to walk comfortably.

Jan 28, 2010 5:19 pm
DOWN:

Thanks god there's chumps like you so the real money has someone to sell to







right



buying stock from you at a MINIMUM of 940.



(your first documented 'retest"



ACAT's-a-raining



end of the world-a-coming



mensa call)



I'm betting you all cash from 667.



mel, is that you?

or mel light



did you get meds or something? you rno fun anymore.

Jan 28, 2010 5:41 pm
Shania Twain:

bears jerking off again......



emg mark

tech

ag

infra



new highs soon



Shania,

Is this what you're telling your clients?

Jan 28, 2010 10:54 pm
NYCTrader:
Shania Twain:

bears jerking off again......



emg mark

tech

ag

infra



new highs soon

Shania,Is this what you're telling your clients?







well, pretty much. I'm very real with people.



NYC,

you see your II sentiment numbers change?   Those were reluctant bulls, tired of getting the as*es chew out being bearish and wrong.

First wiff of a pullback and they bearish. Cant wait to see next report.

We raised some dry powder when those numbers got real stretched and cabot got a bit cautious



u wont see -10% on spx



Cover those shorts.

Get into power names.

Get out of the dark side.

The bull money train has slowed a bit for you to get on.



The D-bag, snake oil salesmen liar, wrong way Prector was out in full force with his perma-bear jive. That fukcing loser is such a tool.   



I'd love to see a monster down opening on huge volume and a weak close followed by a crap opening (that becomes a low)just to make sure we shook all the weak hands out. Let the bears really start doing them selves



probably wont get it. too much cash biting at the bit to get in



Jan 29, 2010 7:50 am
Shania Twain:
NYCTrader:
Shania Twain:

bears jerking off again......



emg mark

tech

ag

infra



new highs soon

Shania,Is this what you're telling your clients?







well, pretty much. I'm very real with people.



NYC,

you see your II sentiment numbers change?   Those were reluctant bulls, tired of getting the as*es chew out being bearish and wrong.

First wiff of a pullback and they bearish. Cant wait to see next report.

We raised some dry powder when those numbers got real stretched and cabot got a bit cautious



u wont see -10% on spx



Cover those shorts.

Get into power names.

Get out of the dark side.

The bull money train has slowed a bit for you to get on.



The D-bag, snake oil salesmen liar, wrong way Prector was out in full force with his perma-bear jive. That fukcing loser is such a tool.   



I'd love to see a monster down opening on huge volume and a weak close followed by a crap opening (that becomes a low)just to make sure we shook all the weak hands out. Let the bears really start doing them selves



probably wont get it. too much cash biting at the bit to get in





I don't know, Shania.  I think this thing is going to get ugly fast.  Momentum going down is much faster.  I have a few names that I plan to go long with once my price targets are hit, but I think the tide has turned and people are really getting spooked.  Sitting on a mountain of cash, puts, some currency plays, bonds and a few utilities.  Will go long selectively, but happy to be out of this market right now.

Out of curiosity, how are your clients reacting?  Are they getting spooked or are they comfortable being long?  Not trying to be a d*** at all, just curious to see how a bullish advisor's book is responding to the past 2 weeks.  I've sounded like a broken record to clients for the past few months, so this isn't a surprise to them.







Jan 29, 2010 10:03 am

NYC - What is your take on the news this morning?

Also not trying to be a d*ck, but:

GDP higher than expected
Consumer sentiment higher than expected
Chicago PMI up
Earnings decent

Of course, there are always reasons to be bearish, but these numbers should not look as good as they do.

Do you see it as a reversal of momentum, a pause or what?


Jan 29, 2010 11:23 am
Moraen:

NYC - What is your take on the news this morning?

Also not trying to be a d*ck, but:

GDP higher than expected
Consumer sentiment higher than expected
Chicago PMI up
Earnings decent

Of course, there are always reasons to be bearish, but these numbers should not look as good as they do.

Do you see it as a reversal of momentum, a pause or what?




Moraen,

That GDP number will likely be revised down, just like the last one. 

Unprecedented level of stimulus is keeping this economy afloat.  I don't see this continuing once the bulk of the stimulus money has been spent by mid '10.  Unemployment is still a back-breaker.  And the real number is more like 16%.

Market is fading today.  Wouldn't be surprised if we see triple digit losses on the dow again today by market close. 


Jan 29, 2010 11:42 am
NYCTrader:
Moraen:

NYC - What is your take on the news this morning?

Also not trying to be a d*ck, but:

GDP higher than expected
Consumer sentiment higher than expected
Chicago PMI up
Earnings decent

Of course, there are always reasons to be bearish, but these numbers should not look as good as they do.

Do you see it as a reversal of momentum, a pause or what?




Moraen,

That GDP number will likely be revised down, just like the last one.  Agree.

Unprecedented level of stimulus is keeping this economy afloat.  I don't see this continuing once the bulk of the stimulus money has been spent by mid '10.  Unemployment is still a back-breaker.  And the real number is more like 16%.

Where is that stimulus money being spent currently?  I've actually heard "real" unemployment closer to 18%

Market is fading today.  Wouldn't be surprised if we see triple digit losses on the dow again today by market close. 

I wouldn't be surprised either.



You have to consider all of the people who are considered, "unemployed". 

There is a lot of work being done.  My wife was in NYC a few weeks ago.  Your situation is a lot different than ours.

The problem with macroeconomics is that any models we use are outdated faster than weather models.  So anybody using "the old way" of doing things will quickly become obsolete.

My personal opinion is that we are not in for an extended downturn.  The labor situation has been bad for a long time now.  Unemployment rate is falling - not fast, but it is falling.  More businesses are willing to hire  Consumption drives GDP.  As people go back to work (which they will), consumption will rise, GDP will rise.

I think it will be a slow process, but I wouldn't expect a huge downturn.

Maybe a correction, which would be a great opportunity to get into some beaten up stocks.  Earnings are good all things considered. 

I know it looks bleak in NY - but around here, people are working like crazy.  Those that got laid off, may not go back to work simply because they don't need to.  Men getting laid off are taking this opportunity to take up a hobby, or stay at home with the kids or go back to school.

Some people take unemployment JUST BECAUSE THEY CAN, not because they need it.

Some things to think about.

Jan 29, 2010 11:51 am

I think the forecasts look terrible..

 
Terrible thing about unemployment is that it only measures people who are looking for a job, it doesn't count people who have stopped searching. So I "real" number is much higher..
 
Other problems including states with huge budget deficits laying off teachers(i thought that job was recession proof). Houses are still not selling even with an $8k carrot, the next round of college grads will be flooding the job market soon.
Jan 29, 2010 11:57 am

The "published" unemployment rate may be falling, but not fast, and that does not include the underemployed, part-time employed and "no longer looking" set.


Yes, some people are choosing not to go back to work, changing fields, retiring early, whatever.  But all that means is that they have less money to spend.  I can't tell you how many clients and friends I know that talk about "scaling back" spending.  It used to be that the newly minted scientists in my area ran out to buy the $600K house and the $40K his-and-hers Audi's, all bought on credit.  Builders were working like crazy.  People were renovating, building bigger and bigger houses, buying 2nd homes.  It has come to a complete halt in my area, and I live in a relatively affluent area, where unemployment is lower than the national average (partly because many of the laid off scientists moved away).


Maybe I am too bearish, but I don't see this thing getting better anytime soon. 
Jan 29, 2010 12:07 pm
Moraen:
NYCTrader:
Moraen:

NYC - What is your take on the news this morning?

Also not trying to be a d*ck, but:

GDP higher than expected
Consumer sentiment higher than expected
Chicago PMI up
Earnings decent

Of course, there are always reasons to be bearish, but these numbers should not look as good as they do.

Do you see it as a reversal of momentum, a pause or what?




Moraen,

That GDP number will likely be revised down, just like the last one.  Agree.

Unprecedented level of stimulus is keeping this economy afloat.  I don't see this continuing once the bulk of the stimulus money has been spent by mid '10.  Unemployment is still a back-breaker.  And the real number is more like 16%.

Where is that stimulus money being spent currently?  I've actually heard "real" unemployment closer to 18%

Market is fading today.  Wouldn't be surprised if we see triple digit losses on the dow again today by market close. 

I wouldn't be surprised either.



You have to consider all of the people who are considered, "unemployed". 

There is a lot of work being done.  My wife was in NYC a few weeks ago.  Your situation is a lot different than ours.

The problem with macroeconomics is that any models we use are outdated faster than weather models.  So anybody using "the old way" of doing things will quickly become obsolete.

My personal opinion is that we are not in for an extended downturn.  The labor situation has been bad for a long time now.  Unemployment rate is falling - not fast, but it is falling.  More businesses are willing to hire  Consumption drives GDP.  As people go back to work (which they will), consumption will rise, GDP will rise.

I think it will be a slow process, but I wouldn't expect a huge downturn.

Maybe a correction, which would be a great opportunity to get into some beaten up stocks.  Earnings are good all things considered. 

I know it looks bleak in NY - but around here, people are working like crazy.  Those that got laid off, may not go back to work simply because they don't need to.  Men getting laid off are taking this opportunity to take up a hobby, or stay at home with the kids or go back to school.

Some people take unemployment JUST BECAUSE THEY CAN, not because they need it.

Some things to think about.



I appreciate your post and respect your points, but from my perspective the problem with unemployment is two-fold:

1.  Consumers are still levered to the hilt.  How are they going to pay off debt (mortgages, credit cards, etc) when they have no income coming in?  If the savings rate was higher, consumers could afford to take this hit.  But it isn't and most can't.  And defaulting on their debt and foreclosing on their homes only makes this worse for the broader economy.  This is still happening, even if it is occurring at a lower rate.

2.  US consumer consumption has driven our economy (and corporate profits) for decades.  With the US consumer worrying about employment and paying down debt, they are not going to be spending at the levels they have been in the past and the government can only do so much QE and cash for clunkers programs to stimulate spending.  With the US consumer on the sidelines and not using credit at previous levels, I don't see where corp profit margins will come from (emerging market consumers won't be able to make up the shortfall).

I don't think the world is going to end.  I just don't believe we're back to a pre-recession business as usual economy.  Things are still very precarious and can easily turn for the worse.  I don't have the level confidence in the economy and markets necessary to expose client capital to those risks.

That said, I am excited about selectively buying great individual names on the cheap.  The nice thing about sell-offs is that the baby is often thrown out with the bath water as investors rush to sell indiscriminately.  That will provide an opportunity for people like me with dry powder and the stomach to buy when things look bleakest.

Of course, I could be wrong.  This could be a short dip, before the rally continues, but I'd rather miss out on some upside than participate in downside.

Jan 29, 2010 12:28 pm

Some input from the mortgage side.



We are already seeing the wholesale lenders react to the Fed upcoming end of supporting MBS. This coupled with new lending guidelines is finally tricking down to the consumers. The housing market which is finally bottoming out could take another hit with fewer eligible buyers and less refis to save consumers money.



It could get worse before it gets betters.