Exactly what I thought

or Register to post new content in the forum

30 RepliesJump to last post

 

Comments

  • Allowed HTML tags: <em> <strong> <blockquote> <br> <p>

Plain text

  • No HTML tags allowed.
  • Web page addresses and e-mail addresses turn into links automatically.
  • Lines and paragraphs break automatically.
Oct 23, 2009 1:51 pm

The beauty of all this. It will be decided shorty. Now remember, no spin bullsh!t, when we are at the lows, I want no excuses. I don't care if it's a nuc. if Obama turns us communist. There will be spin by the media.  Bottom line, we are in a very fragile state and the stock market is not the place to be. The economy is bad and getting worse. The guys that run these companies know it and truth be told......that fact alone terrifies me.

 
Shortly= within the next year
 
We will find out who is correct, and if it's not me.......I will create a post called " I'm an idiot take your shots" Will you have that same conviction?
Oct 23, 2009 1:57 pm

I've always eaten crow when it is deserved. I have no problem eating it again. I've been wrong before, I'm sure I'll be wrong again.



I think it's important to look at things scientifically and keep questioning no matter what your answers are.



To me, you have the same problem as those who worship at the altar of anthropogenic global warming. You think you have all of the facts and all of the answers, but fail to keep asking the right questions.



Good luck shoeshine. I will be on here and say that you are right, I am wrong. I'll even apologize for all of my comments.



But based on my personal research, I don't think that it's likely.

Oct 23, 2009 2:08 pm
Moraen:

I've always eaten crow when it is deserved. I have no problem eating it again. I've been wrong before, I'm sure I'll be wrong again.

I think it's important to look at things scientifically and keep questioning no matter what your answers are.

To me, you have the same problem as those who worship at the altar of anthropogenic global warming. You think you have all of the facts and all of the answers, but fail to keep asking the right questions.

Good luck shoeshine. I will be on here and say that you are right, I am wrong. I'll even apologize for all of my comments.

But based on my personal research, I don't think that it's likely.

 
we will see.  The right questions are always the ones that pursue truth. and from my years in this biz, the truth is......over time most will not make money in the market. It is designed to fck the average investor. I am abviously not a buy and holder, but my best friend is. and in his 401k he has averaged 3.4% per year over the last twelve years. He is a branch manager at AGE (now Wells). He has completely lost faith because he measures what he made vs what his clients made and it doesn't add up. He is a stand up guy and that bothers him. I do not have the all the answers, but I do know what the answer is not. So I avoid it. I am not brainwashed and in 2014 when we should be bottoming, I will become a BULL AGAIN. 20 year market cycles, this one started in 2000. 29-48=crap.....48-66=awesome.......66-83=crap.......83-2000=awesome......2000-?=you tell me
Oct 24, 2009 7:10 pm

This is my first post.   I'm a middle-aged Newbie, hired/trained at a wirehouse, 2008.  Laid off with many other NFA's this year.  Overall good experience, though, since I now have securities licenses, some perspective; opinions, etc.  Your give-and-take posts, bullish/bearish stances, chart facts, optimisim/pessimism on future events, are all relevant.  

 
Big picture to consider:  Is the market really free?  What kind of playing field is it, anyway?  Isn't Washington, DC pulling most of the strings?  I hear that for the first time, economists are in clear and vociferous disagreement over what's up.  Similar to the reaction in the 30's to FDR's economic policies - love 'em or hate 'em.  Is Michael Moore right to call the destruction of the middle class, thats only been around since the end of WWII, by thieves in finance?  No small wonder people are concerned.  In whom do you place your trust?
 
This thread could go for awhile as answers and your prognostications unfold.  Keep it up.
 
              
Oct 24, 2009 8:16 pm
Shania Twain:
fritz:

Elliot Wave has a target for the DOW of 400.  Thats a long term number, he is looking for 2700 on the next move down though.  Have to think DOW 2700 this site would no longer be in operation.



fritz, come on man, smile.   
have faith in humans. population grows.
free markets are growing around the globe.
goog s and p earnings back to the beginning.   look at earnings in the 90's the last time the dow hit 6500. Look at earnings now.

keep it simple EARNINGS GROW OVER TIME PERIOD    ALWAY

this has been the greatest decade ever for productivity gains.   technology advances.   so many more of the world population with a shot at freedom. think about a true middle class in Brazil, then in china, then in ???????
stocks go up over time.    who do you respect more?
warren or robert prector?

listen to some people with true experience in this business (byron wein, don hayes, barton biggs etc)

stocks go up over time and the reason is really pretty damn simple why.

goog Ibbitson and take a look at the long term chart of the s and p with all the events that humans have gone though. The longer you spread out your time frame the more the odds favor that you will beat the risk free rate of return PLUS we are in a period where the last 013 years have sucked.   This is the TRAP.   The perma bear doctor doom dumbasses' have a field day and their argument looking out the back window in the last decade seems pretty strong, Fritz, you are smarter then that because you are going to look LONGER term and you will see that the odds greatly favor that equities are going to return ABOVE the norm in the next 10-20 year period.

are you an FA?    stop reading all that crap.   believe in stocks for the long run.   screw the nay sayers and the short term noise.

companies will grow earnings and the market will go up over time.   asset classes will go to their norm average returns LIKE always.

then never waiver with your clients. no matter what get an allocation that makes sense for them and become a broken record when the market sells.


Goog warren and just read everything the MF has ever said. then read it again.   

SHOE SHINE BOY?   OR WARREN?

 
 
Oct 24, 2009 8:16 pm

[quote=Hugh Cadwalader] This is my first post.   I'm a middle-aged Newbie, hired/trained at a wirehouse, 2008. Laid off with many other NFA's this year. Overall good experience, though, since I now have securities licenses, some perspective; opinions, etc. Your give-and-take posts, bullish/bearish stances, chart facts, optimisim/pessimism on future events, are all relevant.



Big picture to consider: Is the market really free? What kind of playing field is it, anyway? Isn't Washington, DC pulling most of the strings? I hear that for the first time, economists are in clear and vociferous disagreement over what's up. Similar to the reaction in the 30's to FDR's economic policies - love 'em or hate 'em. Is Michael Moore right to call the destruction of the middle class, thats only been around since the end of WWII, by thieves in finance? No small wonder people are concerned. In whom do you place your trust?



stocks go up over time.   





Below we highlight the simple rolling ten year return on the S&P 500 since 1955 (note that this is simple return, not total return). The shaded areas on the chart are periods of negative return. The great bull market lasting from 1982 to 2000 brought this calculation has high as 400% before turning negative in October of 2008. With this market up 59% from the bottom, many investors may feel as though they missed these gains and need to wait for another entry point. Depending on your time horizon, that is not necessarily the case.



If we look at the last period when ten year returns were negative, we find that the ten year return going forward is an average of 163%. In other words, on a days when the ten year return on the S&P was negative (this is roughly 640 trading days) the average return going forward ten years was 163% and the minimum return was 78%. Anyone with a time horizon of at least ten years should stay in stocks.



Oct 24, 2009 8:19 pm

i cant copy chart.

get long

stay long

Oct 24, 2009 8:41 pm

Shania check out a thread I started a while back under General called 200k New Money. It is comical how many guys on this thread would not commit to 100% equities at Dow 7k.

Oct 25, 2009 12:21 am

From someone a lot smarter than me (and pretty much everybody on this board):

 
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/einhorn-vic-2009-speech.pdf
Oct 25, 2009 9:09 am
deekay:

From someone a lot smarter than me (and pretty much everybody on this board):



http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/einhorn-vic-2009-speech.pdf





Perfect.   



Guy was all-in wrong at s and p 1500.

NOW he understands he must be more cautious (at spx 666).

NOW he sees the risks of equities.



This is a wonderful thing. This wall of worry has and will make my business life so fun for many years.



Screw Obama and his big govt agenda. Whatever he does will not effect the REAL story that is bigger then all of us. BRIC

Bubba did the same stuff in the 90's and tech monster was REAL story. Plus Obama is at 49%. Independents are gone.   Dude bagged middle ground people by going so far left.   2012 goes to GOP.   (and the guy a fool, if he just stayed closer to center with economy turning he could have been Winston freakin churchill. USA will reject all this big govt like they did mensa Jimmy Carter)



THE WORLD CHANGED NOV 20 2008.    

COMPARE BRIC VS USA AND WESTERN EUROPE MARKETS FROM NOV 20, 2008.



This is when the markets figured out the world had changed   



When the US catches a cold, the world now has BRIC Tamiflu.



Brazil, china, india etc are like USA in industrial freaking revolution.    So early in cycle. open your eyes.   Think of ALL these damn people with middle class incomes and consumption habits.   



get long BRIC and US and western Europe companies TIED to brics.



sell anything to do with US consumer (bby, tgt etc)

sell all financial for many years   (no group that EVER lead a major sell-off lead the next bull EVER)

bac,c,db,wfc etc are the biggest sucker bets out there (just like all the dumb asses STILL buying the glory days tech names of the 90s (csco, sunw,msft etc)



banks will stay in sideways to down pattern for many,many years.



"competition for global resources"     write this on your lunch box



ag, infra, tech etc.



Mar 9, 2009 will turn out to be one of the best buying opportunities EVER in the market (like 82)



We will bust through old s and p highs (1610?) within the next 2-4 years.



The secular bear (starting 2000) people will have to throw in the towel on a new bull that started with capitulation low that ended mar 9, 2009.

(actually act 10 and nov 20 were more important).



all you guys holding cash KEEP selling. Keep hording the dry powder for me to make money on when you throw in towel and buy (things will "look better" to you guy after Brazil doubles from here).   Hold your cash.

read your finklesteins and precters etc etc. keep doubting it.



perfect