[quote=Soothsayer]Did you ever hear of Magic Johnson?  6'9'' and could handle the ball, pass the ball, and score.  Could play any position on the floor.  Even filled in at center one time during the NBA finals.  Played pretty good defense, too.  [/quote]

And in the history of the NBA how many Magic Johnsons have there been? Exactly one. Care to make a guess what the odds are that YOU'RE that ONE in this business?

BTW, Mantle didn't pitch because he couldn't. 

[quote=zacko]

It's all about perception.  Some advisors can do a poor job for the client and because they (client) like and trust that advisor--retain the relationship.  Other clients can be doing fantastic with another advisor but, because they feel something is missing from the relationship they move their account.

This is a FAR more important fact than which method of investing might be better than another as far as performance, value..etc, as the "typical" client does not notice the difference nor does he care.

This business is almost entirely about the realtionship between the advisor and his/her client.  Performance is one component--but I will argue that's it's far from most important.

[/quote]

[quote=jamesbond]You either don't feel confident in your ability or do not want the responsiblity.  [/quote]

There's a third option you didn't mention, that I'm certain that I can hire others who do absolutely nothing else to do it better while I do what I do best (and what's I'm paid to do).

[quote=mikebutler222]

Butler222-

"You mentioned something about 10% net performance over the last 5 years."

I didn't make that comment, but most every balanced SMA portfolio I've seen lately can show those sorts of numbers. They're really NBD. Small Cap, Deep Value and International managers have done increadbly well the last few years and have carried diversified portfolios.

"  If I saw a client who had gotten that with all of the blah, blah, blah, I'd send him or her right back to their advisor."

Then you'd be sending back everyone that had an advisor who really practiced asset allocation.

"A married couple who recently sold their business.  $1.4 million in assets, 1.5% fee, -1.0% perfromance over the last 5 years.  (Client down 5%, advisor up 7.5%)--Smith Barney"

I'd love to see how any reasonably assembled portfolio could have achieved that performance, but, there are duds in plenty of seats in this business... 

BTW, would you like me to share the horror stories I've seen of accounts coming over from both wirehouses and one-man shops where the advisor made big bets on hot sectors, didn't balance an account and blew up clients?

"The next time I see 10%, I'll PM you and give up. "

Sure you will..... Let me give you some help here. If you see a portfolio with Brandes (domestic and/or international) or NWQ small/mid cap, just to name two, hand the statement back the client, save yourself some time, and move to the next opportunity.

" I'm not a "stock jock".  I just use my head a little bit."

Golly, and no one else in the business besides you does?

" I'm done talking about this."

Fair enough.

[/quote]

I made that comment about the 10%.... check out this mix. Van Kampen, Congress, Madison, Kayne Anderson, and NWQ.   Great numbers.

Obviously the accounts you swiped has a bad manager... not every manager is good... take a look at Berkley Capital, Seneca, and Roger Engamann, they were horrible.

And HNW clients don't really want some stock jock calling them every week with a product to peddle.  They want a solid portfolio.  "I can do better" doesn't make people want to do business with you.  Anyone with some sense wants facts and figures as well.  "Trust me, I know what I'm talkin about" might work if you sell cars, not investments.  I don't gamble with people's money, I take calculated risks.

I'll gladly send you any info you want on a solid portfolio, I doubt you know of the risks associated with the recommendations you are making.

[quote=iconsult100][quote=mikebutler222]

Butler222-

"You mentioned something about 10% net performance over the last 5 years."

I didn't make that comment, but most every balanced SMA portfolio I've seen lately can show those sorts of numbers. They're really NBD. Small Cap, Deep Value and International managers have done increadbly well the last few years and have carried diversified portfolios.

"  If I saw a client who had gotten that with all of the blah, blah, blah, I'd send him or her right back to their advisor."

Then you'd be sending back everyone that had an advisor who really practiced asset allocation.

"A married couple who recently sold their business.  $1.4 million in assets, 1.5% fee, -1.0% perfromance over the last 5 years.  (Client down 5%, advisor up 7.5%)--Smith Barney"

I'd love to see how any reasonably assembled portfolio could have achieved that performance, but, there are duds in plenty of seats in this business... 

BTW, would you like me to share the horror stories I've seen of accounts coming over from both wirehouses and one-man shops where the advisor made big bets on hot sectors, didn't balance an account and blew up clients?

"The next time I see 10%, I'll PM you and give up. "

Sure you will..... Let me give you some help here. If you see a portfolio with Brandes (domestic and/or international) or NWQ small/mid cap, just to name two, hand the statement back the client, save yourself some time, and move to the next opportunity.

" I'm not a "stock jock".  I just use my head a little bit."

Golly, and no one else in the business besides you does?

" I'm done talking about this."

Fair enough.

[/quote]

I made that comment about the 10%.... check out this mix. Van Kampen, Congress, Madison, Kayne Anderson, and NWQ.   Great numbers.

Obviously the accounts you swiped has a bad manager... not every manager is good... take a look at Berkley Capital, Seneca, and Roger Engamann, they were horrible.

[/quote]

Some guys simply abuse the SMA process and instead of using some rational asset allocation model have clients back up the truck with a single manager with recent hot numbers. When that investing discipline falls out of favor and the manager's numbers decline, they get whip-sawed. Usually said geniuses then call their clients, blame the manager (not their failure to allocate) and move everything into the newest hot-dot. Wash, rinse, repeat....

[quote=Soothsayer]

[quote=Guest1]Sooth, you must be pretty good. Can I send you 500 or so? You must be doing better than my def comp..Outpacing all the CFAs at Captal, wow, that is impressive, Where do I send my check ? And your fee ?[/quote]

Actually, I am very good.  I don't know if you remember other threads about H&R Block's financial services unit, but I have said several times on this forum that I am short that stock (HRB)--not because of the financial services business, but because of their sub-prime lending business.  I first shorted the stock at $54, then doubled down at $59.50.  The stock briefly went above $60 on news that it was splitting 2 for 1.  Check out the price today.  Meanwhile, the PhDs, CFAs, and whoever else continue to be long.  Many of my clients have benefitted from this "falling star."  This is just one example. 

BTW Guest, did you catch the data point on Friday that Annaly Mortgage (NLY), one of the oldest and best run mortgage REITs slashed their dividend by 64%.  If you caught that, you're ahead of the PhDs.  Go back and read their comments about just how tough the mortgage business is right now.  In addition to HRB, I have been short Accredited Home Lenders (LEND), New Century Financial (NEW), and NovaStar Financial (NFI) for more than four months now.  Go check out those charts, and see how me and my clients are doing.  There are still plenty of opportunities in those shorts with the exception of LEND.  I am having to cover parts of most positions right now simply because the stock cannot be borrowed.  So, the PhDs are sniffing out the problems with the stock at 37.  I sniffed them out at 50.  I guess they missed the easy 26% return that was sitting on the table.  I do not know of a single analyst who recommended a short or had a "Sell" rating with the stock at or near its highs.  In fact, many had "strong buy" ratings.  So, as the herd arrives to the realities of LEND and is dumping the stock in an all out panic, they pass me and my clients already riding out of town with a rather tidy (and fat) profit.  I could go on, and on, and on about other present holdings, but you will beg for all of the times I have screwed up.  There has been one that stands out in my mind.  I shorted Apple (AAPL) in the Fall of '04, and covered in December, and got whipped pretty good.  But on the whole, I have had far more winners than losers. 

[/quote]

Hey Butler and Guest, did you see how my basket of shorts did late in the week?  Yet another big "Come to Jesus", this time from NEW.  How did your clients' fare?

I think you are right on regarding the subprime lenders.  I would also include many of the builders in that.  Knowing how to short is a terrific thing that can greatly enhance your benefit to the client. If you understand technicals, it sure helps because often you will be shorting stocks the big Wall Street firms are recommending. 

Of course, they are often simply trying to unload their inventory so they will keep their buy recommendation on a stock and screw the average investor/advisor who doesn't know what the hell is going on.  Builders is a good example of that now.  Just watch what happens to them along with some of these stupid lenders as rates rise. 

I'm not so sure that rates will rise very much.  The government is promising to pump significant amounts of money into the Gulf region, and do so without raising taxes.  That will probably mean larger than average floats on Treasuries.  Even if the Fed is raising rates, liquidity will be added by the bond auction, thereby negating Greenspan's efforts at tightening. 

The Fed is indeed powerful, but it's power is minor when compared with economic forces.

What the heck are you talking about Starka?  Do you know who controls over 25% of the flow on the ten year? Pimco.  Economic  forces?  What a joke.  The fed is keeping this ten yr yield artifically low and they won't be able to do it forever.  Even with Pimcos help.  What has it been, 11 rates increases?  So you are already wrong.  Low rates have lead to the artificial rise in home values.  Rates are going to continue to go up.  Bet on it.  And when they continue to do so, watch what begins to happen to housing prices, subprime lenders, and builders.     

Now, if I am wrong on the home builders and I get stopped out it wont be the first time.   There are always other opportunities.   I'll bet I am right though.

I don't really subscribe to conspiracy theories, Greenhills.  That said, Pimco could not control 25% of the 10 year if clients didn't keep putting money into the fund.

The Fed has thrown out 11 rate increases, yet yields remain low.  Why?  Because the economy wants yields low.  Wrong?  Hardly.

I don't know whether high end home builders will prosper or not from the coming reconstruction of the Gulf Coast.  I do think, however, that the large industrial constructors will be VERY busy in the coming months.  Building materials will benefit as well.

Right now, the technicals are telling us the home builders are done.  I am all ready up on all of those short positions.  You have home builders breaking key supports all over the place. You see, that's the nice thing about learning technical research.  It doesnt lie, Wall Steet does. 

So you go long and keep listening to all the crap you hear on CNBC or from your firm or who ever.  Idiots putting buy recommendations out on these stocks and they haven't a clue.  I'll stay short until I am happy with my profits or get stopped out.   

As far as the Pimco is concerned, that is no conspiracy theory, it is correct.  It is a fact and it is a big deal.  You think for one minute that the Fed is not in contact with Gross?  Give me a break.  When the ten year finally goes over 4.5-4.6% like it wants to do if it wasent being artificially held down, you watch what happens to this market.

When did I say I was long home builders?  When did I say I was guided by CNBC?

Look, if you want to have an exchange of ideas, fine.  If you'd rather handle both sides of the discussion, I'm fine with that too.  But don't make assumptions on what I recommend to my clients.  As it is, you are in fact, incorrect.