Economy vs. Stocks disconnected?

or Register to post new content in the forum

51 RepliesJump to last post

 

Comments

  • Allowed HTML tags: <em> <strong> <blockquote> <br> <p>

Plain text

  • No HTML tags allowed.
  • Web page addresses and e-mail addresses turn into links automatically.
  • Lines and paragraphs break automatically.
Nov 20, 2009 10:34 am

I have been doing this for a couple of years now and certain things don't add up. I realize the market is a discounting mechanizism, but why then did the market not crash until the credit was already frozen? Why is it rising when we are creating worse figures than before? ( housing ) We need to create 500k jobs  per month over the next 5 years just to get unemployment back to where it was and we are still losing 500k jobs? I guess I'm missing something, what do you all think?

Nov 20, 2009 11:28 am

BRIC



US consumer is important but no where near as important as before



world changed nov 20, 2008



look at ewz   (brazil)   vs spx from that date to now.



brazil with a middle class

china with a middle class

india with a middle class

etc



stocks are cheap



the REAL story is the global economy. dont miss forest for tress







God bless ya ronnie. Mr Gorbachv, tear down that MF wall.

God bless personal individual freedom

Nov 20, 2009 11:41 am
Shania Twain:

BRIC



US consumer is important but no where near as important as before



world changed nov 20, 2008



look at ewz   (brazil)   vs spx from that date to now.



brazil with a middle class

china with a middle class

india with a middle class

etc



stocks are cheap



the REAL story is the global economy. dont miss forest for tress







God bless ya ronnie. Mr Gorbachv, tear down that MF wall.

God bless personal individual freedom







Wake up the alarm clock is ringing





Nov 20, 2009 12:23 pm

I do not want to get into a long conversation on opinions, but I will comment. 

 
Things will continue in a trading range maybe with a small selloff 1st quarterish.  3rd and 4th quarters next year (GDP, wages, mkt etc) will be VERY good as those who can control their income will advance it as much as possible since 2011 will be the (already signed into legislation) start of massive tax increases. 
 
Tax increases has not, will not, CAN NOT, result in an increase in the production of goods and services. 
 
BY PURE DEFINITION THE INCREASE OF TAXES ON ANY CLASS OF PEOPLE WILL RESULT IN THE REDUCTION OF MONIES AVAILABLE TO PURCHASE GOODS AND SERVICES. 
 
If your argument will be one of the other 3 legs of the economy will take over I will offer this:
1. Foreign investments- Forget it, foreigners have and will continue to pull money out of the US due to the devaluation of the dollar (a true guarantee at this point)
2. Government- Forget it, that is why we are here in the first place
3. Corporations- Try to never rely on an entity to spend us out of a recession when their primary customer base has less money to spend. 
 
Short of a massive contraction in the monetary supply followed by large tax reductions sprinkled in with the elimination of ridiculous notions of universal healthcare and energy independence we are ROYALY SCREWED......
Nov 20, 2009 12:25 pm

Don't worry, the mkt has annualized 10 % since the beginning of time...buy, buy, buy

Nov 20, 2009 1:19 pm
BigKahuna:

I have been doing this for a couple of years now and certain things don't add up. I realize the market is a discounting mechanizism, but why then did the market not crash until the credit was already frozen? Why is it rising when we are creating worse figures than before? ( housing ) We need to create 500k jobs  per month over the next 5 years just to get unemployment back to where it was and we are still losing 500k jobs? I guess I'm missing something, what do you all think?

 
Are you making the mistake of misinterpreting the market as to mean "the United States"? Look at the S&P 500. How much of the overall profits generated by those companies comes from the United States? Pepsi: 38% of revenues are X-US. UTX: 38% of revenues are US. PG: 45% outside the US. Increasingly it makes no difference what happens to the American worker.
 
The regional AF guy told me they've found the optimum portfolio now is 48% international. It echoes what the Black Rock guy said last year.
 
Last one out, turn out the lights.
Nov 20, 2009 1:39 pm
LockEDJ:
BigKahuna:

I have been doing this for a couple of years now and certain things don't add up. I realize the market is a discounting mechanizism, but why then did the market not crash until the credit was already frozen? Why is it rising when we are creating worse figures than before? ( housing ) We need to create 500k jobs  per month over the next 5 years just to get unemployment back to where it was and we are still losing 500k jobs? I guess I'm missing something, what do you all think?

 
Are you making the mistake of misinterpreting the market as to mean "the United States"? Look at the S&P 500. How much of the overall profits generated by those companies comes from the United States? Pepsi: 38% of revenues are X-US. UTX: 38% of revenues are US. PG: 45% outside the US. Increasingly it makes no difference what happens to the American worker.
 
The regional AF guy told me they've found the optimum portfolio now is 48% international. It echoes what the Black Rock guy said last year.
 
Last one out, turn out the lights.
 
These markets are all behaving the same. International fell first and faster so now it is up more and faster. I don't get how people say the market predicts? It seems like it acts on it's own. Didn't predict the credit freeze, but now it is predicting recovery. I don't get it?
Nov 20, 2009 1:55 pm
shantom1:

I do not want to get into a long conversation on opinions, but I will comment.



Things will continue in a trading range maybe with a small selloff 1st quarterish. 3rd and 4th quarters next year (GDP, wages, mkt etc) will be VERY good as those who can control their income will advance it as much as possible since 2011 will be the (already signed into legislation) start of massive tax increases.



Tax increases has not, will not, CAN NOT, result in an increase in the production of goods and services.



BY PURE DEFINITION THE INCREASE OF TAXES ON ANY CLASS OF PEOPLE WILL RESULT IN THE REDUCTION OF MONIES AVAILABLE TO PURCHASE GOODS AND SERVICES.



If your argument will be one of the other 3 legs of the economy will take over I will offer this:

1. Foreign investments- Forget it, foreigners have and will continue to pull money out of the US due to the devaluation of the dollar (a true guarantee at this point)

2. Government- Forget it, that is why we are here in the first place

3. Corporations- Try to never rely on an entity to spend us out of a recession when their primary customer base has less money to spend.



Short of a massive contraction in the monetary supply followed by large tax reductions sprinkled in with the elimination of ridiculous notions of universal healthcare and energy independence we are ROYALY SCREWED......







Your all BEARS



thats why they play the games



hold cash

short it

sell



Im long and bullish as a MF



keep shorting it

keep holding cash



NOBODY dis Ronnie.    even you Mel. you trashed Jesus (your gonna REALLY pay for that someday)



dont trash Ronnie

God bless ya Gip.   you would'nt believe the guy we have in washington

Nov 20, 2009 2:03 pm
Shania Twain:
shantom1:

I do not want to get into a long conversation on opinions, but I will comment.



Things will continue in a trading range maybe with a small selloff 1st quarterish. 3rd and 4th quarters next year (GDP, wages, mkt etc) will be VERY good as those who can control their income will advance it as much as possible since 2011 will be the (already signed into legislation) start of massive tax increases.



Tax increases has not, will not, CAN NOT, result in an increase in the production of goods and services.



BY PURE DEFINITION THE INCREASE OF TAXES ON ANY CLASS OF PEOPLE WILL RESULT IN THE REDUCTION OF MONIES AVAILABLE TO PURCHASE GOODS AND SERVICES.



If your argument will be one of the other 3 legs of the economy will take over I will offer this:

1. Foreign investments- Forget it, foreigners have and will continue to pull money out of the US due to the devaluation of the dollar (a true guarantee at this point)

2. Government- Forget it, that is why we are here in the first place

3. Corporations- Try to never rely on an entity to spend us out of a recession when their primary customer base has less money to spend.



Short of a massive contraction in the monetary supply followed by large tax reductions sprinkled in with the elimination of ridiculous notions of universal healthcare and energy independence we are ROYALY SCREWED......







Your all BEARS



thats why they play the games



hold cash

short it

sell



Im long and bullish as a MF



keep shorting it

keep holding cash



NOBODY dis Ronnie.    even you Mel. you trashed Jesus (your gonna REALLY pay for that someday)



dont trash Ronnie

God bless ya Gip.   you would'nt believe the guy we have in washington









wasn't that guy an actor...i've seen him somewhere before

Nov 20, 2009 2:11 pm

Look at that picture.

You think Ronnie ever "held cash"?



Get long you girly men



You think Ronnie's portfolio looked like this?



10% US dollar

15% 20 year treasuries

15% corporates

15% aggregate bond index

5% short GOLD

10% TIPS

15% BIL

CASH



Gezz man.

Check for a 7-11 and get some depends

Nov 20, 2009 2:13 pm

I'm not a bear. I do asset allocation. You know the rules for that don't you? I'm just trying to find an answer. If there isn't one, so be it. I collect assets and look for good funds, so don't call me a bear.

Nov 20, 2009 2:20 pm
BigKahuna:

I'm not a bear. I do asset allocation. You know the rules for that don't you? I'm just trying to find an answer. If there isn't one, so be it. I collect assets and look for good funds, so don't call me a bear.





The gipper got to ya!



Put his picture on the wall.



Nov 20, 2009 3:49 pm

bears:

check out baltic dry index in last 2 months



thats the REAL story. global economy ready to explode.

u will see oil over 147 SOON

Nov 20, 2009 5:45 pm

How do you reconcile your admiration for Reagan--which I share--with your optimism that things are similar today?  Reagan was a deregulator, a tax-cutter, and wanted to shrink the size of government.  He laid the groundwork for one of the longest bull markets in history.  Just what similarities do you see with the present Commander in Chief?

Nov 20, 2009 8:29 pm

Shania-I am not a bear. I was 100% long equities until late summer when we approached 10, I started pulling off the table (about 50-50 now). Turned out to be a good move b/c my fixed income investments have averaged a nice double digit return. I am looking for a re-entry point to make a short term play until end of next year.



Not believing the stock market will always go up all the time is not being a bear, it's being realistic and strategic.



You remind me of your typical bull market broker, "lost half your money, don't worry buy more b/c some day it will go up". I assume you feel very strongly that there is never a good reason to underweight equities b/c of the economy?

Nov 20, 2009 8:30 pm
Bodysurf:

How do you reconcile your admiration for Reagan--which I share--with your optimism that things are similar today? Reagan was a deregulator, a tax-cutter, and wanted to shrink the size of government. He laid the groundwork for one of the longest bull markets in history. Just what similarities do you see with the present Commander in Chief?





SPOT ON!!!

Nov 20, 2009 8:40 pm
shantom1:
Bodysurf:

How do you reconcile your admiration for Reagan--which I share--with your optimism that things are similar today?  Reagan was a deregulator, a tax-cutter, and wanted to shrink the size of government.  He laid the groundwork for one of the longest bull markets in history.  Just what similarities do you see with the present Commander in Chief?



SPOT ON!!!



 
 
Carter paved the way for Reagan, Obama will pave the way again in much the same way.
Nov 20, 2009 10:10 pm

PAVED THE WAY? In that you mean he made it so miserably worse that we could only get better?



Please explain economically how anything this administration has done is beneficial to the country. Take from the people who are working and give to those who are not? redistribution of wealth? protectionism? isolation of enemies? government run uni health care?



HOLY SH*T are you off your F'in rocker?

Nov 20, 2009 10:36 pm
shantom1:

PAVED THE WAY? In that you mean he made it so miserably worse that we could only get better?



Please explain economically how anything this administration has done is beneficial to the country. Take from the people who are working and give to those who are not? redistribution of wealth? protectionism? isolation of enemies? government run uni health care?



HOLY SH*T are you off your F'in rocker?





i hear ya........but the global economy bigger then ANYTHING this guy can do.



your missing forest for trees.



Look at Bubba. he raised taxes etc etc



tech run was bigger then ANYTHING he did.



stay away from us consumer names.



infra

ag

commods

emg markets



"global competition for the world's resources"



obama is toast



he is under 49& now

independents gone

he went way way too far left

he is done



They will ram though healthcare and midterms will be rep blowout



Nov 20, 2009 11:03 pm

I am not missing the picture. The only country getting it right is China. Scary.



Anyone who is a fan of stimulus packages should study economics 101, zero sum gain- quite negative actually.



China has gotten it right- Stimulus spent on infrastructure paid from surplus. Let that soak in a little. It took me a minute to grasp it. You can't borrow to stimulate. period.



Next on the list, and only other on the list is Germany. They just cut taxes. They are getting it.



I think everyone needs to back off from our brainwashed view that we are the supreme beings and our country cannot fail irregardless of our actions.   The rest of the world is waiting patiently for us to continue our slide. They want to remove the dollar as the world reserve. They want to demote our strength on the world stage. Normally we have the bench to take this challenge head on and beat it before it starts; the problem here is the coach has never coached a game before and his "centers of influence" are all professors. A professor is a tremendously smart person who can lay out on a chalkboard the exact cause and effect for any scenario you can come up with. But he can't tie his shoes.



Their problem comes in the practical application of theories; science cannot predict human emotion. Ask a mathematician to quantify the impact of greed, fear or manipulation and he will toss up his hands.



That is where our problem lies. Our government is run by people who are using the mathematician's guide to economy 101.



As I said I could go on for a day on any topic here. I am abbreviating and maybe rambling, but it is b/c I cannot puts to words how inescapably screwed we are and how a complete and absolute reversal of policy is the only chance of revival or even perhaps survival....