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Nov 9, 2008 1:06 pm
 
  Just curious to see where the FA see the Dow closing at the end of the year.  10,500 for me.
Nov 9, 2008 1:28 pm

skbroker:
 
  Just curious to see where the FA see the Dow closing at the end of the year.  10,500 for me.
 
think next week is key for this year..if it does not rally, than my pick is 9500 tops.  More importantly what about year end 2010.  My pick is 7500 (hope im wrng).  Think this economy/market is in huge trouble.
Nov 9, 2008 1:43 pm

Last Friday move was encouraging on a technical aspect as Dow held 50 percent retracement from Thursday and would not be surprise if we break 9600 mark in 2 weeks. Lower energy will have some positive impact on consumer spending and see Dow at 12000 end of 09

Nov 9, 2008 5:05 pm
skbroker:

Last Friday move was encouraging on a technical aspect as Dow held 50 percent retracement from Thursday and would not be surprise if we break 9600 mark in 2 weeks. Lower energy will have some positive impact on consumer spending and see Dow at 12000 end of 09

 
Agree on the 50% retracement, I meant 7500 2009 year end, not 2010.  Think we are in the middle of the decline though, the last stage will start Jan/April of next year, thats when people realize on the retail side that this thing is not coming back and we undercut the lows, then we sit in a trading range for 1-2 years.  Depending on where we settle on the downside, maybe 7500-10,000 for couple years.  Think better chance of getting struck by lightening than 12,000.  Again, hope your right, but I'd be shocked if we got back there.  Every group is technically destroyed, cant find a group to lead the way. Looking at long term charts on names like GE, INTC, MSFT, DIS, etc etc they all say they have another 25% decline in store, minimum.
Nov 12, 2008 7:10 am

biotech is leading the way

Nov 12, 2008 8:25 am

you know what they say about opinions? I think you're wrong.tyech analusis is bs anyway.

Nov 12, 2008 9:41 pm
ezmoney:

you know what they say about opinions? I think you're wrong.tyech analusis is bs anyway.

 
You think its better to use fundemmentelz? 
Nov 13, 2008 12:51 pm

I would be thrilled to see bonds come back up close to par!

Nov 13, 2008 3:57 pm

I feel bearish as hell on the economy as a whole... Consumer spending in the last ten yrs was driven by taking on more debt and now the piper is calling.  As consumers start pulling in the reins, GDP will continue to fall and unemployment will exceed 10%.  Housing will not find a bottom for years to come and our Govt, which started this mess, will not be able to pull us out. Think about it:


The bailout tag will be well over 3 trillion when you figure in FDIC, Treasury, Bank and Auto's, and stimulous borrowing. 
Consumers make up 2/3 of GDP.  Like hedge funds, they will start to deleverage their own balance sheets by doing something they haven't done for 17 yrs... SAVING and paying down their debt pile.
Municipalities and state govt's are running jumbo deficits with less cash coming in and less tricks up their sleeves to bilk us in tax revenue.
Banks are calling customers and trying to get them into a better mortgage... did the banks call their clients with 16% mortgages in the early 80's and try to get them a lower rate?
Stock analysts and economists are still too optimistic... we still are not through the mortgage problem and haven't yet realized the car loan and credit card problems that will be coming.
Don't even get me started on National Debt, Unfunded pension obligations, Social security, Medicare, and soon the Universal Healthcare
 
Even with all this... I believe we will make it out somehow but my prediction is DOW 6,000 at the end of 2009.  I hope to God I'm wrong and I hope someone gives me some positive reasons why I'm overly worried.
 
 
Nov 13, 2008 6:32 pm

If you have a price target on Dow at 6000 how are your clients invested?  Cash? short term bonds?  I personally think that the market has discounted alot of the recessionary pressure already and even if we discount S &P earnings by Half that get us where we are today.  Also I see no one is talking about the low energy prices which I think we'll relieve alot of pressure on consumers.  I still think that we'll  be over 10,000 on Dow by the end of year and about 11500 to 12000 end of next year.  Today's action was positive and the Vix is on a downtrend and looking at  30's in the next month or so    

Nov 16, 2008 6:51 pm

Skbroker...I agree completely.  The market has a nasty recession  priced in, and we know the financials won't go belly up (thanks to the Treas).  Take those off the table, and we're staring at the tail end (hopefully) of a slowdown.  I can deal with that.  I'd sure like to see the huge swings simmer down a bit. 

Nov 17, 2008 12:04 am

I was discourage that we made new lows and s and p last week but if we can just hold those level 'll be happy.  Its been a tough year and hoping that we can some rally going to year end.