BEARS=Back to your spider holes. new highs

or Register to post new content in the forum

83 RepliesJump to last post

 

Comments

  • Allowed HTML tags: <em> <strong> <blockquote> <br> <p>

Plain text

  • No HTML tags allowed.
  • Web page addresses and e-mail addresses turn into links automatically.
  • Lines and paragraphs break automatically.
Feb 16, 2010 11:04 am

Feb 16, 2010 11:12 am

Classy, Shania.

This market is moving lock step with the USD.  The Euro mess is far from over and once the dollar continues to strengthen, this rally will fade.

Feb 16, 2010 1:05 pm

commods,

emg markets

ag



I cant put the orders in for you.......

Feb 16, 2010 3:29 pm

Commodities and Gold are up because of the weak dollar.  



Energy and materials are up because of the weak dollar.



Dollar is weak because Greece is "contained." 



I don't buy it.  Europe is in trouble.  This isn't going away. 

Feb 16, 2010 8:52 pm

Seems to me that by making statements like this, you are simply declaring that you are smarter, more clairvoyant, more insightful, whatever, than all the hedge fund managers, and for that matter, smarter than the market.

The market knows. And right now the market is saying yes to U.S. equities, and based on relative strenght, no to International equities.
What is, is. Until its not. Don't try to pick the tops and bottoms, right now the SPX hasnt broken the 200 Day MA. When and if it does, look out, but till then go with the trand.
Feb 16, 2010 11:10 pm

One freaking bear...where are all the bears from a week ago?

Feb 16, 2010 11:24 pm

Shoeshine boy? Waddyasay

Feb 17, 2010 10:32 am
Sportsfreakbob:

Seems to me that by making statements like this, you are simply declaring that you are smarter, more clairvoyant, more insightful, whatever, than all the hedge fund managers, and for that matter, smarter than the market.

The market knows. And right now the market is saying yes to U.S. equities, and based on relative strenght, no to International equities.
What is, is. Until its not. Don't try to pick the tops and bottoms, right now the SPX hasnt broken the 200 Day MA. When and if it does, look out, but till then go with the trand.



What is up with some of you people on this board?  When a bull makes a statement like I made, nobody says anything.  Shania goes on all day making wildly bullish assumptions (which, by the way, I have no problem with) and I've never seen any of you bat an eyelash.   But since I'm bearish and put out a view that is counter to the consensus, suddenly you get all indignant and bent out of shape. 

For the last time, I am not proclaiming to be smarter, more insightful or clairvoyant than any of you.  I simply have a different view on the markets and I'm going to stick with it.  Come back at me with a rational argument as to why I'm wrong.  But don't get all self-righteous and sensitive.  It makes you sound insecure.

Dude, I will not follow the trend.  That is how you get murdered.  My clients pay me to think, not follow trends.  My analysis leads me to believe that the equity markets are mirroring currency moves right now.  

I am a staunch, staunch bear at this point in time.  I firmly believe this rally is unsustainable.  Until I see unemployment go down and consumer spending go up, there is no way to justify the multiples we're seeing.  Of course I could be wrong, but that's what things interesting...

Feb 17, 2010 10:39 am
mlgone:

"Of course I could be wrong, but that's what things interesting..."

 
hmmmmmmmmm.  insightfull
 
"Dude, I will not follow the trend.  That is how you get murdered"
 
Not if you got on the trend last summer



I was long last summer.  I was long all of 2009 until November.  I was long because the markets were oversold.  I believe the markets are now overbought.

Come on man, is that all you got?  Tell me why I'm wrong.  Why are you bullish?

Feb 17, 2010 11:48 am
mlgone:
NYCTrader:
mlgone:

"Of course I could be wrong, but that's what things interesting..."

 
hmmmmmmmmm.  insightfull
 
"Dude, I will not follow the trend.  That is how you get murdered"
 
Not if you got on the trend last summer



I was long last summer.  I was long all of 2009 until November.  I was long because the markets were oversold.  I believe the markets are now overbought.

Come on man, is that all you got?  Tell me why I'm wrong.  Why are you bullish?

 
To quote
 
"We tend to use Dow Theory for the strategic side of the portfolio (read: investing). To that point, the “buy signal” registered last summer remains in force until it is negated. Optimistically, we continue to believe that negation is not in the cards. Indeed, with credit spreads back below pre-Lehman bankruptcy levels, we think there is no reason why the downside vacuum created in the S&P
500 (SPX/1075.51) chart by said bankruptcy cannot be filled to the upside, especially given the improving fundamental backdrop, suggesting targets of 1200 – 1250. Driving that sort of pricing action has been explained in past missives where we have exhorted that the typical economic recovery cycle is for corporate profits to boom, driving an inventory rebuild cycle that fosters capital
equipment expenditures. As companies spend money on the capex, people are hired, and then consumption “reboots.” Importantly, hiring and consumption come on the backend of the cycle, NOT the front end."





Are you quoting something you wrote or is this the view of a portfolio manager you follow?

Feb 17, 2010 12:06 pm

MLgone, when was the last time you were bearish?

Feb 17, 2010 3:52 pm

Here is a surprise...I am too bullish too often.

But, the charts get me out.

I lost my ego in this a long time and many dollars ago.

If i screw up and name breaks down....i wait for bounce and get out of dodge-period.

I get bearish (cautious) when sentiment gets wacked bullish.

the only time that i was really bearish was early 2000.

when the MF naz DOUBLED from oct 1998 to 2000 I even got the message. Clients bithcing about GE up ONLY 19%.

My pet.com up 145%.

we had a lot of cash and sold tech. it was pretty huge.



now, it probably does not surprise you.......bought too early.........never saw whatever low was 780ish? coming in 2002.



Although, had emerging market crap in 2002.   still own some.



i will never,ever sell in fear. unless a client makes us.



IT HAS NEVER BEEN HARDER TO BE BULLISH.   THAT MAKES ME MORE AND MORE CERTAIN LONG IS THE TICKET.

bears are rabid.   

the stupidest of clients (not in a bad way) that wanted to mortgage house at top are SURE 3ed bubble coming.

aint gonna happen.



NO WAY this guy is right.

Feb 17, 2010 9:25 pm

we will rally, I believe, to new year high...and then get kicked in the stones again. Dow 11300, S&P 1200....emerging markets will suck for awhile.... stay in commodities and precious metals ex-gold....bonds look awful....

Feb 17, 2010 10:44 pm

NYCTrader-I never said you were wrong. I never said you were right. And i didnt think i  being self righteous.

I simply believe that everything you are saying is stuff that the hedgies, who can move markets faster than you or I, already know. If its correct. In which case they've acted on it.
What I believe is that the only thing that matters is what the market says.
So be where the relative strength is
So don't be so defensive.
Feb 17, 2010 10:58 pm

[quote=Sportsfreakbob] NYCTrader-

What I believe is that the only thing that matters is what the market says.

So be where the relative strength is





amen, brother
Feb 17, 2010 11:10 pm

bear:

































Feb 17, 2010 11:15 pm

bull



























Feb 18, 2010 1:43 am

ST, you are a freak, but I love your stuff.

Feb 18, 2010 8:09 am
Indyone:

One freaking bear...where are all the bears from a week ago?



As far as I know, there are 3 bears on this board.  Mel and his many aliases, Shoeshine and me.  Clearly, I'm in great company.

Feb 18, 2010 9:05 am

Indyone-This site is a complete waste of time! It is filed with morons. 471,000 more jobs lost this week. How long can a bullsh*t rally like this last? Why is everyone on this board against gold? Because you are sheep.


 
I said go short in mid-January. I am correct.
 
I said to buy the US dollar last fall- correct agin
 
I said short gold last fall- correct again
 
Yet, I am the one with credibility doubts?????????????
 
Hard to be a bull  It is never HARD to be a bull!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 75% of the time it is correct!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Any idiot can be a bull. As Ben Affleck put it so perfectly once................................
" F*CK it I'm done" BA
 
MORONS