Art Cashin Losing it

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Oct 29, 2009 7:28 pm

I think he has had one to many Johnny Blacks.

Today he sounded just foolish.

"I felt we were very close to a 800 plus point meltdown like Oct"



Right Art.   



Take your medicine and quit talking your book.



Say it Art,



"I HAVE BEEN DEAD ASS WRONG AND AM TOO STUBBORN AND/OR HUNG OVER TO ADMIT IT"



You look like an idiot

Oct 29, 2009 8:16 pm

My favorite part, "I was surprised by the GDP number. I was expecting it to be lower". Of course you were, dumbass, because you are like weatherman without a meteorology degree.

Oct 30, 2009 9:40 pm

Wow. You guys really nailed it critiquing Art. He only called the downturn in August 08 quoting E. A. Poe after we didn't get a capitulation sell off in July and called for a rally around St Patty's Day 09. And now he's been negative since late July when the market started getting too closely correlated to the drop in the dollar and the breadth and volume of the market looked suspicious. And you and others have mocked him for missing the "bull" market. The next few months will be very entertaining, as I'm sure your clients will be the lucky benefactors of your intuitive investment advice. Mr. Cashin was just some derelict when he warned you of the bogus nature of this rally. Let's see, do I trust the cowboy stock picking financial advisor who has nothing better to do than randomly post his every thought on a message board, or the Mensa member Art Cashin who has hang nails with more credibility and experience than all of you collective experts combined? Hmmm. There's not much to love about UBS these days, but Art Cashin is invaluable. He's typically early in his calls, but correct.

Oct 30, 2009 10:02 pm
jacks:

Wow. You guys really nailed it critiquing Art. He only called the downturn in August 08 quoting E. A. Poe after we didn't get a capitulation sell off in July and called for a rally around St Patty's Day 09. And now he's been negative since late July when the market started getting too closely correlated to the drop in the dollar and the breadth and volume of the market looked suspicious. And you and others have mocked him for missing the "bull" market. The next few months will be very entertaining, as I'm sure your clients will be the lucky benefactors of your intuitive investment advice. Mr. Cashin was just some derelict when he warned you of the bogus nature of this rally. Let's see, do I trust the cowboy stock picking financial advisor who has nothing better to do than randomly post his every thought on a message board, or the Mensa member Art Cashin who has hang nails with more credibility and experience than all of you collective experts combined? Hmmm. There's not much to love about UBS these days, but Art Cashin is invaluable. He's typically early in his calls, but correct.





Well put.   

There is truth in some of what you say.

I am a bull.

I believe in stocks for the long run.

I have fought the bull case for 25 years in this business

I believe in a proper allocation and a long run approach.

I do not think market timing works.

Bears are my enemy.

I am off base sometimes attacking bears but I am ok with it.

They are the other team.

They get their days in the sun (like broken GD clocks).

Been a rough decade for my types.

I WILL be right in the long run.

The secular bear that began in 2000............ Ending march 2009.

A few years shorter then most.

Art and you are wrong.

You hold your cash.

You keep doubting it.



Art was spot on july 15. 2008

We got hurt hard.

We added to emerging markets positions Nov 20,2008 (we had some cash)

We sold all safe fixed income in mid Feb 2009

(govies and corps that were not horrible bids).

We added to existing positions with fixed income cash.

we ere s all-in as we have every been in Feb 2009 (a bit early).

we sold (too early) for more conservative people in july (the govie money) and bought shorter term corps.

we are above our highest levels from before melt down



you have to believe in something

i believe in stocks for the long run and I will NEVER waiver.

we had some people who bailed in march

but they had to order us to do it.



you stay bearish

you market time



I have NEVER been so bullish

(maybe after 87 crush but i was young)

why so bullish?

pretty simple look at 10-year rolling returns

we at the all-in point

(never easy at these points 1982)



who has more money?



1 w buffet



1 b fleckenstein?



art adds a great deal and your post was good.   

Oct 30, 2009 10:15 pm

If this turns out to be a 10-15% correction, with a resumtion of the rally to follow, then I will wholeheartedly agree with your approach. My building cynicism towards the modern market pricing mechanisms with the prevalence of hedge funds and derivatives makes me doubt this approach, as I am more and more apt to believe the game has changed and we must evolve with it. I am incapable of timing markets, but will aggressively harvest gains in these markets. Playing defense and erring on the conservative side is much more appetizing. If a return to the lows a la the Elliot wave guys does occur, our businesses will be permanently damaged, I believe. Time will tell, but 15 years of reading Art's intuition makes me hesitant to fight his forecasts.

Oct 31, 2009 8:59 am
jacks:

If this turns out to be a 10-15% correction, with a resumtion of the rally to follow, then I will wholeheartedly agree with your approach. My building cynicism towards the modern market pricing mechanisms with the prevalence of hedge funds and derivatives makes me doubt this approach, as I am more and more apt to believe the game has changed and we must evolve with it. I am incapable of timing markets, but will aggressively harvest gains in these markets. Playing defense and erring on the conservative side is much more appetizing. If a return to the lows a la the Elliot wave guys does occur, our businesses will be permanently damaged, I believe. Time will tell, but 15 years of reading Art's intuition makes me hesitant to fight his forecasts.





So "its different this time?"



As john Templeton said "its never different this time"



The trap is that after bad periods for stocks you think things have changed. (04,42,82 etc). I read Jeremy Granthem this week say "the dangerous book by jeremy siegal....stocks for the long run". So jeremy siegal is now dangerous?



Ok population wont grow, earnings wont grow, humans wont invent, productivity wont improve...........





AND THE REAL STORY:    bric



Compare any multinational US large caps numbers in 2009 vs 1989.

Things have changed in that there is an extra few billion people living in free markets.   CAT gets 36% of net from North America. Back in the day in downturns these names were true boom and bust. Nov 20, 2008 the market determined USA and western europe had its day in the sun as the end all for economic growth in the world.



Brazil up 112% from that date.

Brazil up 40% from that date to US low in march



that is "different"



Inflation seems to be the boogie man now.   A large part of inflation is labor.   When oil was 147 and commods across the globe were on fire in 2007 there was NO inflation. why>   ? wake up



There are billions of people in this earth that will work for a dollar a day.



Go to Sams. look around at the stuff you can buy and at what price. think back 10 years ago. Inflation is an flashback of Paul Volkers acid trips. TIPS are the single biggest sucker bet on the globe.



The only true monster risk to an awesome recovery is a 1937 pulling too fast of the govt tit.   Ben and bevis (Tim Geitner) get it.



The trap starting in about 1994 was too aggressive.   So the market bithc slaps everyone like it always does and now the consensus is "retest, its different, stocks suck blah blah blah). The market will prove the most number of people wrong, like always.



In this run stock mutual funds have had net OUTFLOWS. that blows my mind but makes sense. The hedgies and pros got back into stocks but as usual the small guy fukcs up.   The little guys still has way way too much cash and bonds. This next secular bull that started in mar 2009 will be missed by many (classic).



This guys will be bullish when "things look better"   Around s and p 2500.





stocks go up-click here

Oct 31, 2009 12:17 pm

Art may look like an idiot, but you ARE an idiot

Oct 31, 2009 12:38 pm
meletio:

Art may look like an idiot, but you ARE an idiot





wow

that was powerful

pls stop

Oct 31, 2009 12:59 pm

sorry , I can't stop ...I tried , but it's so much fun picking you losers

Nov 1, 2009 8:49 am

I've never understood the perma-bear or perma-bull approach to investing.  If you take on one of these philosophies, you will miss out on opportunities to go long or short the market because you get locked into a pattern of thought.  I think our clients expect us to find opportunities regardless of market conditions.

Nov 1, 2009 11:52 am

I find it amusing how people will hold onto an idea to the bitter end just to be able to say I said something like 'I told you so'. It's people like you that I love taking money from. While you're hanging on your 'idea' I'm simply taking what the market is telling me not some news caster or academic. The uni-directional portfolio is already at a 66% disadvantage to start. No wonder most people loose their money.


I'm not as smart as they are. There is no way I can predict what tomorrows bar will look like let alone how and where we are in a market cycle. The only thing I know for sure is I don't have a clue.
 
Thank God for their way of thinking. It makes it simple for guys like me to extract money from their ego's.
Nov 2, 2009 6:41 pm

It amazes me that anyone here has the stones to even talk about Art this way. I've said it before....... I don't believe any of you are veterans in this biz, but good god exercise some common sense. Can you read a chart? I love how you all talk about Warren Buffet too. The guy is a gangster. He Gets perferred stock at 10% and in the money warants, none of you will ever make an investment like Warren because you don't have his name or his money! Please quit referring to him, he doesn't believe in the "Buy and Hold" that you do. As for market averages........they don't matter. No one will hold their stock when this is over, they won't care to anymore. Just like your grandparents. And then, I will rebuy this pig and make a ton of money.

 
I got out of the Nasdaq at 3,000, it went to 5,000. Was I right or wrong?
 
This is so simple. We are in an environment that risk will not be rewarded well. I will not laugh WHEN I am correct. I will feel bad for the people that listened to BROKERS like the people on this board. They are going to be the victims, not you. Also, I am not a bear and my career proves it. I've had this debate once, I'm not interested in having it again. I just can't believe whatI read here. Peace, good luck.
Nov 2, 2009 6:44 pm
Shania Twain:
jacks:

Wow. You guys really nailed it critiquing Art. He only called the downturn in August 08 quoting E. A. Poe after we didn't get a capitulation sell off in July and called for a rally around St Patty's Day 09. And now he's been negative since late July when the market started getting too closely correlated to the drop in the dollar and the breadth and volume of the market looked suspicious. And you and others have mocked him for missing the "bull" market. The next few months will be very entertaining, as I'm sure your clients will be the lucky benefactors of your intuitive investment advice. Mr. Cashin was just some derelict when he warned you of the bogus nature of this rally. Let's see, do I trust the cowboy stock picking financial advisor who has nothing better to do than randomly post his every thought on a message board, or the Mensa member Art Cashin who has hang nails with more credibility and experience than all of you collective experts combined? Hmmm. There's not much to love about UBS these days, but Art Cashin is invaluable. He's typically early in his calls, but correct.



Well put.   
There is truth in some of what you say.
I am a bull.
I believe in stocks for the long run.
I have fought the bull case for 25 years in this business
I believe in a proper allocation and a long run approach.
I do not think market timing works.
Bears are my enemy.
I am off base sometimes attacking bears but I am ok with it.
They are the other team.
They get their days in the sun (like broken GD clocks).
Been a rough decade for my types.
I WILL be right in the long run.
The secular bear that began in 2000............ Ending march 2009.
A few years shorter then most.
Art and you are wrong.
You hold your cash.
You keep doubting it.

Art was spot on july 15. 2008
We got hurt hard.
We added to emerging markets positions Nov 20,2008 (we had some cash)
We sold all safe fixed income in mid Feb 2009
(govies and corps that were not horrible bids).
We added to existing positions with fixed income cash.
we ere s all-in as we have every been in Feb 2009 (a bit early).
we sold (too early) for more conservative people in july (the govie money) and bought shorter term corps.
we are above our highest levels from before melt down

you have to believe in something
i believe in stocks for the long run and I will NEVER waiver.
we had some people who bailed in march
but they had to order us to do it.

you stay bearish
you market time

I have NEVER been so bullish
(maybe after 87 crush but i was young)
why so bullish?
pretty simple look at 10-year rolling returns
we at the all-in point
(never easy at these points 1982)

who has more money?

1 w buffet

1 b fleckenstein?

art adds a great deal and your post was good.   

 
 
I feel bad for your clients, if you in fact have any.  I don't know where all your time to post comes from.
Nov 2, 2009 7:56 pm

"i believe in stocks for the long run and I will NEVER waiver.
we had some people who bailed in march
but they had to order us to do it.

you stay bearish
you market time

I have NEVER been so bullish
(maybe after 87 crush but i was young)
why so bullish?
pretty simple look at 10-year rolling returns
we at the all-in point
(never easy at these points 1982)

who has more money?

1 w buffet

1 b fleckenstein? "

 
 
Not sure who was the market genius who posted the above..
 
We are at "all in point!!"  Take a look at the volume on a weekly chart on the market leaders the past 6 months (AAPL, GOOG, BIDU, BAC) I can go on and on.  You notice anything?  Not sure if you use volume, so I will give you a hint, there isn't any.
 
Take a look at the manipulation on the GOOG chart, the last two times it was a market leader and was manipulated into year end, the bottom fell out of it both times on day one in Jan. of the new year.
 
Bank America short interest has dropped from 200 Million to 70 million share on that BS move. 
 
Bottom line is your precious leaders which are prompting you to go "all in" are a fraud. 
 
As for who is a better market performer Buffett or Fleckenstein?  Who cares, I agree with Shoeshine, the last 10 years the only money Buffett has made was by holding a pistol to some desperate companies head.
 
Ken Heebner who runs CGMFX fund the past 10 years has blown everyone away.  And his is transparent, no lies or funny business.
 
"I believe in stocks and will never waiver"    What do you have in your own account right now, i want to see why you are so confident, so that you never have to waiver?

Nov 3, 2009 4:47 pm

Fritz- this guy has no clue what you're talking about. Short interest, no volume....etc. Way over his head. Read some of his posts!

Nov 3, 2009 8:31 pm

Art could buy all of you twice over....bottom line.

Nov 3, 2009 8:40 pm
WFAt:

Art could buy all of you twice over....bottom line.





So could Bill Gates, James Goodknight, Paul Allen, Nathan Myrvhold, etc. Doesn't mean they know anything about investing or the market. So why does that matter?



Those I named could buy Art 10 -100 times over. What's your point?

Nov 3, 2009 8:44 pm
fritz:

"i believe in stocks for the long run and I will NEVER waiver. we had some people who bailed in march but they had to order us to do it. you stay bearish you market time I have NEVER been so bullish (maybe after 87 crush but i was young) why so bullish? pretty simple look at 10-year rolling returns we at the all-in point (never easy at these points 1982) who has more money? 1 w buffet 1 b fleckenstein? "





Not sure who was the market genius who posted the above..



We are at "all in point!!" Take a look at the volume on a weekly chart on the market leaders the past 6 months (AAPL, GOOG, BIDU, BAC) I can go on and on. You notice anything? Not sure if you use volume, so I will give you a hint, there isn't any.



Take a look at the manipulation on the GOOG chart, the last two times it was a market leader and was manipulated into year end, the bottom fell out of it both times on day one in Jan. of the new year.



Bank America short interest has dropped from 200 Million to 70 million share on that BS move.



Bottom line is your precious leaders which are prompting you to go "all in" are a fraud.



As for who is a better market performer Buffett or Fleckenstein? Who cares, I agree with Shoeshine, the last 10 years the only money Buffett has made was by holding a pistol to some desperate companies head.



Ken Heebner who runs CGMFX fund the past 10 years has blown everyone away. And his is transparent, no lies or funny business.



"I believe in stocks and will never waiver" What do you have in your own account right now, i want to see why you are so confident, so that you never have to waiver?





short it then

hold cash



(i love heeb.   he blinked in feb.)







Nov 3, 2009 9:06 pm

My point is that Art is in the middle of it all...while we all sit in an office in god knows where. Lets be honest...how he manages money and what he says on CNBC are a little different.

Nov 3, 2009 9:08 pm
WFAt:

My point is that Art is in the middle of it all...while we all sit in an office in god knows where. Lets be honest...how he manages money and what he says on CNBC are a little different.





I can agree with that.