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AGE Brokers must wonder what

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Oct 3, 2008 2:41 pm

The action here, back and forth, etc is insane,  but overall a huge win for Wells, shareholders and the folks at WS imho. 

Oct 3, 2008 8:58 pm

Holy smoke mines every other step.

Oct 3, 2008 11:39 pm

For long time AGE folks and WS folks, they are still hammered if they maintained a concentrated position in their stock. It still makes sense (imho) to look around. The deals are not going to be this big forever with less and less competition. Think about the “Protocol”. The firms agreed in principle to play nice. What’s not to say that this does not happen with recruiting deals in the near future. If I ran the firms, I would invite my competition to dinner and make the suggestion. It stops (or really) slows our moving and keeps them from writing the checks.

Oct 4, 2008 2:32 pm

What are you seeing in regards to the size of upfront checks from the other firms?

  I can't see myself going to ML, UBS, MS or Smith Barney.  Any recommendations?
Oct 4, 2008 2:41 pm

Look at places without financial asbestos -Ray Jay, SF, RBC. From a stability standpoint, Wells would be a big step up. Waiting for the AGE retention information took forever, they’ll have to act quicker for fear of losing their only big asset (us, or better put or clients’ money/relationship/trust).

Oct 4, 2008 4:16 pm

There are too many people in this business. You may not agree, but I think we will soon witness a drastic cut in the number of people in our business. As the industry consolidates, the bigger national firms will cut back the size of their brokerages. To be more productive, they will eventually cut out the lower half, who will scatter to the independents. The brokers at larger firms will benefit, if they can produce.

Independents will be squeezed, unless they operate in areas without significant competition from the wirehouses.

I’m ready, are you?

Oct 4, 2008 4:22 pm

I kind of agree with you.  I do think there are too many people in this business, in fact i think the way it is now goes the way of the do do bird.  Think people will look back and say “people actually trusted people who did not know sh*t and made money for directing you into investment products/programs back then??”  Good chance the way these firms and markets hosed people here will be the beginning of the end.  Now if it plays out this way we will see if the people in this business actually have any skills in life to make a living in another field??

Oct 4, 2008 4:37 pm

It is a simple business, present or future. You need about seventy five clients, must manage at least 20m. You charge them an average of 1%. They own indexes, ETFs. You take home a minimum of $140k, after expenses. If your situation does not fit these numbers, look at (broker dealer) costs. There will always be a need for simple advice, service and products provided by honest people. You can coach yourself, but you can do better with exerienced, expert help. All broker dealers are at risk right now, and they need to cut costs if they want to survive.

Oct 4, 2008 6:57 pm

I would agree that the industry has a cleansing coming soon.  The banks are being cleansed as we speak.  All underproducing RR’s will be forced out.  If not indy, I think you had better be doing 300k gross if in biz for 5 or more years. 

Oct 4, 2008 7:31 pm
I would think they would want to get a retention package out.
Oct 4, 2008 11:49 pm
Bud Fox:

I would agree that the industry has a cleansing coming soon.  The banks are being cleansed as we speak.  All underproducing RR’s will be forced out.  If not indy, I think you had better be doing 300k gross if in biz for 5 or more years. 

  300K or more for 5 years in the Biz...That is not coming anytime soon from what i can see.  My MS office has hired 7 ML brokers in the past 3 months and 5 of the 7 were doing under 300 T-12 and they got 150-200% of trailing 12.  And several of those guys doing nearly No gross so far.  My guess is they will most will do far less than 200K next year.
Oct 7, 2008 9:26 pm

MS has been recruiting the heck out of ML in my area too. But larger guys.   I think in most wirehouses right now there are some FAs with gross sinking like the Titanic who want to move while they can and have the numbers to drive a decent deal.  Deals are going to come down here sometime imho. 

Oct 7, 2008 11:54 pm
burtonfinancial1:

MS has been recruiting the heck out of ML in my area too. But larger guys.   I think in most wirehouses right now there are some FAs with gross sinking like the Titanic who want to move while they can and have the numbers to drive a decent deal.  Deals are going to come down here sometime imho. 

    Absolutely, 100% trailing 12 for almost everyone is a total joke...would think people will be scrambling to leave based on that commish number.  High likelyhood most brokers wont hit their t-12 for a long time.  Guess the problem is finding a firm that allows you to spin the move to your clients.. How do you say you are leaving xxxx to go to yyyy for their "stbility and name"  Think MS has gained some ML guys, but writing is on the wall that MS wont be around too much longer as it.  The Jan 5 puts are 1.25, which tells you it could be over by then.