Leading the way out of a bear market

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Apr 21, 2009 3:03 pm

Anyone know of any good charts/graphs/reports that show history of what various asset classes have done post-bear market?  I know traditionally small caps and large cap growth have led the way, with technology more recently.  Just looking for something more factual than anectdotal.

 
Thanks.
Apr 21, 2009 6:58 pm

"24", I fired all of my "wholesalers" and stopped using their branded propoganda.

 
You can show clients simple links, like this one: http://ei.russellink.com/education/HistoricalBearMkts.htm
 
I like to use the large print and hit "125%" text size in the browzer.
 
Have fun! And, nothing more powerful than Googling "VTV" and the like, and showing the dividend yield, and saying, if the market does down or sideways, at least we'll get the yield. Sometimes (remember ten years ago this spring?) the market pushes new highs.
Apr 21, 2009 8:05 pm

Yeah, I only use wholesaler data that is "neutral" in nature.  One of the things I hate most is when they use specific time periods to illustrate a point ("hey look what this fund did from 1970 to 1999!  That's 30 years!!!").  American Funds is notorious for this, which sucks, because they have very good literature in general (they're good story-tellers).

Apr 21, 2009 9:52 pm

Reps will lie and tell clients anything. A Mutual Fund Store owner was saying people should sell their front-loaded American funds (with their reasonable expense ratios) and go into wrap at 1.5 percent, and chase five star funds. Last I checked, American is a pretty good outfit. Maybe their entitled to brag about the past 30 years. I just seek simplicity for my clients, that ETFs and a reasonable wrap fee now, but I respect value wherever it exists.

Apr 22, 2009 12:20 pm

I don't think that stuff applies anymore. This market has blown up most historical trends. It is DIFFERENT THIS TIME, imo; and the recovery will be different, too. And it won't be starting anytime soon.


Apr 22, 2009 12:57 pm

The world is a different place? When I was young, there were 3 billion souls, now we have 6 billion and may live to see nine. Economic interdependence is a reality. Geopolitical threats linger. And entitlement mentality is growing in America.  But ... I still think about how Nick Murray distilled a few simple investment thoughts. Over time, owners get paid more than lenders. Inflation is a reality - energy to be consumed, food to be eaten, no matter what happens, it goes with population growth. And there will be owners, and owers, and lenders. Even if all the wild Polar Bears die.

Apr 22, 2009 12:59 pm
Mishigun:

The world is a different place? When I was young, there were 3 billion souls, now we have 6 billion and may live to see nine. Economic interdependence is a reality. Geopolitical threats linger. And entitlement mentality is growing in America.  But ... I still think about how Nick Murray distilled a few simple investment thoughts. Over time, owners get paid more than lenders. Inflation is a reality - energy to be consumed, food to be eaten, no matter what happens, it goes with population growth. And there will be owners, and owers, and lenders. Even if all the wild Polar Bears die.

 
That would be sad.
Apr 22, 2009 1:22 pm

Yeah. I hope we can find a way to reconcile nature with nurture. I think the world being a different place now is in the back of everybody's mind. We gotta find a way to be optimistic. Actually I think Nick Murray is a cranky old man, but I like some of the stuff he said, something like, " Optimism is the only rational conclusion. After all, you already had the Holocost, the children carrying baskets of coal through the snow  in d***ens novels, the native American wars over hunting rights and food, the killing fields in Cambodia ... if you can, have a nice day! Flipping burgers or being one of Robyn's servants never looked better.

Apr 22, 2009 2:05 pm

Wow, my thread took quite the bizarre twist a few posts back....

Apr 22, 2009 2:12 pm

All right, sorry I hijacked your thread. And, apologies to Robyn, enjoy your retirment, dear. Back to work, then.

Apr 24, 2009 9:33 pm

Not the polar bears, Mish.

No way, no how.
 
Apr 24, 2009 11:32 pm

Dig it, Taki. We gotta save the bears.