Will Apple slow down?

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Dec 10, 2005 8:38 am

Ok-



I have AAPL in portfolios where my basis is between 12 and 30. 
Clients are starting to ask about taking the profit.  I have a few
Put contracts  on the larger positions, but what are everyones
thoughts?

Dec 10, 2005 11:49 am

For traders, selling in January,

For investors, placing stop losses.

Dec 10, 2005 2:17 pm

great topic. I thought once the split that aapl would start to drop off a bit. I mean, once everyone has an IPOD that should level off sales in that regard. However, the itunes music store generates a lot of cash flow for them. The Mac expo is coming up in Janurary in San Francisco and I think that they're planning to release something pretty big.


The recent deals w/ TIVO and NBC to allow downloaded content onto the new video IPODs will open up more business for itunes and aapl.


As a result of all that babble... I really don't know if one should sell or buy. I'd go w/ the S&P rating of hold. What really pisses me off is that I didn't buy some shares after the split this year. Hinsight is always 20/20 I guess... hope this helps and look forward to other opinions.



Dec 14, 2005 11:13 am

did anyone see the Bear Stearns analyst on CNBC this morning? he pretty

much made a bullsih case even though he was downgrading the stock.



I'm afraid this Creative (CREAF) patent suit is gona hurt Apple eventually.

Any thoughts?

Dec 18, 2005 1:18 pm

I think that this is Creative's last ditch effort to try and slow down Apple's sales. Creative players have a horrible interface and they're struggling with promoting their players. I didn't see the downgrade, but I read about it. I think that Apple's growth has to slow down... I said that after the split earlier this year... I was wrong there and I guess that's why I'm not an analyst! 


To answer your question, I don't think this is going to hurt Apple at all.

Dec 19, 2005 5:01 pm

That's what they counted on at Research In Motion.

Jan 10, 2006 4:46 pm
skeedaddy:

For traders, selling in January,

For investors, placing stop losses.





Sold some today. I'm betting there will be a lower re-entry point in a month

or so.



This move to Intel architecture will blow the doors wide open for Mac to

capture at least double the share.

Jan 10, 2006 9:06 pm

I took 1/2 of the positions out today on the pop.  This is a tough
call.  No earnings decrease, which tells me to let the winners
run, but most clients have at least doubled.  I had to take some
off the table.  I hate this...but there are bigger problems to
have.

Jan 10, 2006 10:28 pm

I have not been watching aapl lately, have they announced their fouth quarter numbers? Last time I looked I thought they were priced to perfection and stayed away, missed out on that one. I am just so fearsome, because they are such a small player compared to Dell, IBM and the other big computer players. If it wasnt for Ipod we wouldnt even be having this conversation.

Jan 10, 2006 10:30 pm

I can't imagine anyone firing you over just a "double".  Taking half off the table is a good hedge...either way it goes, you're at least half-right.

Jan 11, 2006 9:35 am

I had given up the forum because of all the EDJ naysayers, I am glad we can have a dialogue about our biz.


aapl does appear to be priced for perfection, at first glance. But.....40% ipod integration into US automarket this year. 850M music downloads. 8M video downloads. FM radio integration, video cable connectivity to TV's/monitors (goodbye Blockbuster). 60% increase in 4th qtr revenue year over year. 14M ipods sold in the fourth quarter alone. Not suprisingly many so called analysts are upgrading aapl with price targets around 100.


Oh yeah I almost forgot the important news. The beginning of open architecture. The first Intel chip in an apple computer. Intel with MAC operating system will be very tough to beat. If aapl can grow their marketshare in PC's, then the priced for perfection theory goes out the window. Microsoft should be concerned.


One last observation. My seventeen year old tells me her mini-IPOD (needs)to be updated. Built in obsolescence. It is a wonderful world...

Jan 11, 2006 10:34 am

I'm glad to see the "split" curse has been broken.  They split just months before the '87 crash and then again in June of 2000.  The latest split on Feb '05 seems to be out of danger.


Steve Jobs stock options are now worth $800 million.


Jan 11, 2006 2:44 pm
7yrvet:

I had given up the forum because of all the EDJ naysayers, I am glad we can have a dialogue about our biz.


aapl does appear to be priced for perfection, at first glance. But.....40% ipod integration into US automarket this year. 850M music downloads. 8M video downloads. FM radio integration, video cable connectivity to TV's/monitors (goodbye Blockbuster). 60% increase in 4th qtr revenue year over year. 14M ipods sold in the fourth quarter alone. Not suprisingly many so called analysts are upgrading aapl with price targets around 100.


Oh yeah I almost forgot the important news. The beginning of open architecture. The first Intel chip in an apple computer. Intel with MAC operating system will be very tough to beat. If aapl can grow their marketshare in PC's, then the priced for perfection theory goes out the window. Microsoft should be concerned.


One last observation. My seventeen year old tells me her mini-IPOD (needs)to be updated. Built in obsolescence. It is a wonderful world...



7yearvet,


What about some puts for your clients like rightway suggested previously?

Jan 27, 2006 2:34 pm
skeedaddy:

For traders, selling in January,
For investors, placing stop losses.


Did you guys get out? What now?