Where is this market going?

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Aug 15, 2007 7:36 pm

Besides down

Aug 15, 2007 7:46 pm

The lawyers are licking their chops hoping to find clients of a "financial advisor" who thinks the career is "ezmoney."


All people have to do is say you didn't inform them of the risks and they'll get their money back.


You'll pay it via salary reduction--it's less painful that way because you don't have to pay taxes or FICA.


It's been a generation since the plaintiff's bar has had a meaningful shot at Wall Street.


You'll be surprised what that nice Mr. and Mrs. Jones will say about you.  Your firm will be described as a Mafia family, your manager will be the Godfather and you're a Goodfella out to screw nice people like the Jones family out of their retirement.


The attorney will not charge them so it's a "Free shot" from their point of view.


I am aware of mothers who went into arbitration panels against their son.


People are funny about their money.

Aug 15, 2007 8:36 pm

Sounds like you speak from experience.  Is that why they made you retire early from Citigroup?

Aug 15, 2007 9:13 pm

The dow has only corrected about 8% off it's high.  Take it easy. 



It has been on a pretty good run here, all the while we should have
been cautioning our clients, both old and new, a dip will come, as will
a rebound...and this will never stop in there accounts until they get
out of the stock market completely.  It is part of investing, and
part of advising is continually explaining this to clients.

Aug 15, 2007 11:20 pm

Did any of you consider taking a little cream off the top when the market screamed through 14000 with little good reason?

Or did you listen to the talking heads from all the major firms who were telling you "Life is good, pay no mind to the deteriorating fundamentals in real estate."

One of the best things you can do for yourselves and your clients is to realize that the so-called 'strategists' and head economists for the major firms are merely permabulls who would not tell you that they were worried about the market even if they had the capacity to form a contrary opinion.

Aug 15, 2007 11:21 pm

And oh...by the way right way is correct.  This is an 8% correction and if you're clients are really getting killed you had too much in wall street and reits and finance co's.  Learn from it and move on.

This is not a bear market....so far.

I don't think it will be if the Fed can calm credit markets down.  Then again, we're unwinding an awful lot of carry trades and other leveraged trades.

Aug 15, 2007 11:53 pm

"Did any of you consider taking a little cream off the top when the market screamed through 14000 with little good reason?"


I did. I reassessed my risk tolerance and my profits and my need to take risk and took a nice chunk out.

Aug 16, 2007 1:24 am

The one thing that DOES concern me is to contemplate how the market has fallen even though so many central banks are pumping in cash...

Anyone care to comment on this one?

Aug 16, 2007 1:40 am
william1:

"Did any of you consider taking a little cream off the top when the market screamed through 14000 with little good reason?"


I did. I reassessed my risk tolerance and my profits and my need to take risk and took a nice chunk out.



BS. You are a stupid ignorant moron and I hope Nancy gets outted soon.

Aug 16, 2007 6:59 am
joedabrkr:

Did any of you consider taking a little cream off the top when the market screamed through 14000 with little good reason?


When did it scream through 14,000.  I seem to recall that it closed a tiny fraction above 14,000 and then headed south.


Did they ring a bell that you heard, but nobody else did?

Aug 16, 2007 7:02 am
ExPropTrader:
william1:

"Did any of you consider taking a little cream off the top when the market screamed through 14000 with little good reason?"


I did. I reassessed my risk tolerance and my profits and my need to take risk and took a nice chunk out.



BS. You are a stupid ignorant moron and I hope Nancy gets outted soon.



Not only did he come out of the market--he went long puts.  That would explain why he disappears every day to his job at the convenience store from 3 to 11--home to do some posting while he unwinds.

Aug 16, 2007 7:04 am

My bad for not noting that another of the idiots changed the quotes from Joe to William.  It was Joe who claims to have flipped his position exactly at 14,000.


It is Joe who is around to post during the day, but disappears in the late afternoon and comes back after 11 PM almost every night.   All the markings of a guy with a second job.

Aug 16, 2007 9:57 am

Or a successful business with afternooon appointments (golf or business, you choose), then a family to go home to.  


Aug 16, 2007 10:21 am
DAtoo:

My bad for not noting that another of the idiots changed the quotes from Joe to William.  It was Joe who claims to have flipped his position exactly at 14,000.


It is Joe who is around to post during the day, but disappears in the late afternoon and comes back after 11 PM almost every night.   All the markings of a guy with a second job.



Let me clarify....I started making adjustments after about 13k on the Dow and put the Put option positions in place in late May.  I made further adjustments in client accounts as we approached the 14k level on the Dow.  I was a little early but right now I don't mind.

Aug 16, 2007 10:26 am
DAtoo:
joedabrkr:

Did any of you consider taking a little cream off the top when the market screamed through 14000 with little good reason?


When did it scream through 14,000.  I seem to recall that it closed a tiny fraction above 14,000 and then headed south.


Did they ring a bell that you heard, but nobody else did?



Maybe I'm not being sufficiently precise.  The market topped out around 14123 on the Dow on what I recall was a couple of pretty strong up days.  "Scream" may be overly dramatic but the market action felt pretty fluffy and speculative to me.  As it approached that round number the "all is well" attitude most people had only increased my convictions that things were getting a bit over cooked.

And NO I don't have a second job.  This one take more than enough energy and time and makes me more than enough money.  My most productive work time is between lunch and the market close, and then there is family life.

Aug 16, 2007 10:41 am
joedabrkr:
DAtoo:
joedabrkr:

Did any of you consider taking a little cream off the top when the market screamed through 14000 with little good reason?


When did it scream through 14,000.  I seem to recall that it closed a tiny fraction above 14,000 and then headed south.


Did they ring a bell that you heard, but nobody else did?




Maybe I'm not being sufficiently precise.  The market topped out around 14123 on the Dow on what I recall was a couple of pretty strong up days.  "Scream" may be overly dramatic but the market action felt pretty fluffy and speculative to me.  As it approached that round number the "all is well" attitude most people had only increased my convictions that things were getting a bit over cooked.


Joeboy, if you're going to invent stories you really ought to research things--not to mention an embarassing lack of knowledge about recent history.


For three days--July 17, 19 and 20--the Dow traded INTRADAY above 14,000.  The all time intraday high was 14,021.95 on the 17th.  Where did you up with 14,123?


I'll say it again--you remind me so much of "Big Red" who used to show up at the bar talking about what a wizard he was in his ability to time the market.  Always ending with a whispered, "I'm a little short, can you loan me a grand till payday?"

Aug 16, 2007 10:48 am
DAtoo:
joedabrkr:
DAtoo:

[quote=joedabrkr]Did any of you consider taking a little cream off the top when the market screamed through 14000 with little good reason?

[/quote]


When did it scream through 14,000.  I seem to recall that it closed a tiny fraction above 14,000 and then headed south.


Did they ring a bell that you heard, but nobody else did?



Maybe I'm not being sufficiently precise.  The market topped out around 14123 on the Dow on what I recall was a couple of pretty strong up days.  "Scream" may be overly dramatic but the market action felt pretty fluffy and speculative to me.  As it approached that round number the "all is well" attitude most people had only increased my convictions that things were getting a bit over cooked.


Joeboy, if you're going to invent stories you really ought to research things--not to mention an embarassing lack of knowledge about recent history.


For three days--July 17, 19 and 20--the Dow traded INTRADAY above 14,000.  The all time intraday high was 14,021.95 on the 17th.  Where did you up with 14,123?


I'll say it again--you remind me so much of "Big Red" who used to show up at the bar talking about what a wizard he was in his ability to time the market.  Always ending with a whispered, "I'm a little short, can you loan me a grand till payday?"



I took a quick look at the most handy resource:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EDJI&t=3m

Perhaps they had bad data.  I'm not going to quibble over 100 points on the Dow, nor precisely which days it happened.

In the end, as I've said before, I don't really CARE whether you believe me.

Aug 16, 2007 11:08 am
joedabrkr:



I took a quick look at the most handy resource:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EDJI&t=3m

Perhaps they had bad data.  I'm not going to quibble over 100 points on the Dow, nor precisely which days it happened.

In the end, as I've said before, I don't really CARE whether you believe me.


Joeboy, what is a financial "professional" such as yourself doing using Yahoo for your information?  Don't you "professionals" have access to more reliable sources of information?


While we're at it, I went to that site and can clearly see that the Dow touched 14,000 on July 19th but never really closed above it--I would think that a "professional" such as you would be able to do the same.


Finally, while you may not care if I believe or respect you--do you care if anybody does?

Aug 16, 2007 11:12 am

DAtoo, you're like a one of those yappy little white poodles with the all that dirt and slobber caught in the hair around the mouth. 

Aug 16, 2007 12:45 pm
joedabrkr:

Did any of you consider taking a little cream off the
top when the market screamed through 14000 with little good reason?

Or
did you listen to the talking heads from all the major firms who were
telling you "Life is good, pay no mind to the deteriorating
fundamentals in real estate."

One of the best things you can do
for yourselves and your clients is to realize that the so-called
'strategists' and head economists for the major firms are merely
permabulls who would not tell you that they were worried about the
market even if they had the capacity to form a contrary opinion.





Which is all well and good, except that the issues in real estate
(which must be split into commercial/residential real estate et al) do
not affect everything else. IMHO wider credit spreads are a good thing,
since it means more return for each unit of credit risk.



While real estate securities have been fun drama, the much bigger risk is rolling over tons of leveraged loans into the much tighter credit market. People who invested in senior loan funds are going to take a bath.



IMHO if there is one sector to buy right now, it is major banks (KBE).