Vix

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Sep 15, 2008 2:05 pm

In past major selloffs, the VIX was around 30 when the market rallied.  It's right around 30 now.  Maybe in the next 24-48 hours when some decision is made about AIG, we might get some sort of oversold rally.


The problem with these bear market rallies is that it feels like we're going 2 steps forward and 3 steps back, so we keep losing ground.


We'll see what happens with the Fed rate decision...it's a double-edged sword.

Sep 29, 2008 2:52 pm

VIX was over 46.  That's very high.

 
I would love to see a rally off that number, but the question is, is there a large leg down to come?
Sep 29, 2008 2:58 pm

I was under the impression that due to the volatility from mostly the financial sector/oil & gas, that the VIX (which accounts for all sectors) is a poor indicator of when we'll see a rally. 

It opened around 36...now around 46, based mostly on the financial sector.  What are you thoughts on that? 

Sep 29, 2008 3:02 pm

TSE - down -861.19 or -7.10.

Sep 29, 2008 3:07 pm
gvf:

I was under the impression that due to the volatility from mostly the financial sector/oil & gas, that the VIX (which accounts for all sectors) is a poor indicator of when we'll see a rally. 

It opened around 36...now around 46, based mostly on the financial sector.  What are you thoughts on that? 

 
There will always be more attractive sectors.  Obviously, the consumer staples and healthcare look better than most right now.
 
But since the VIX is an overall "fear" measure, the general trends might indicate that when fear is so heavy, like now, we are due for a snapback rally.  I am hoping it works like this, but who knows. 
 
Here's the problem:  It would be great to say things are really oversold right now...they probably are.  BUT, if the credit markets don't get more liquid, all sectors and consumers will feel the pains.  This country runs on the businesses getting their financing to continue to do business.  It's not happening right now.  We needed this bill to pass. 
 
 
Sep 29, 2008 3:15 pm

Snags....you last point is THE issue and that is financing the other sectors. This a.m listening to a Canadian Business Report and that was the panelists point.