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Sep 14, 2008 11:59 pm

Who's next?

Sep 15, 2008 12:17 am

3 of 5 largest (BS, ML, L)investment houses have collapsed so far.

AIG and WASH MU on the watch list along with several smaller and privately held firms.  Expect for a large firm in Asia and Europe to fail in the near future
Many local and regional banks will FDIC in the next 18.
 
Sep 15, 2008 12:42 am

AIG

We'll see if the Fed gives them a loan

Sep 15, 2008 8:33 am

The bigger they are... the harder they fall.  This is a healty cleansing - and I would not expect the damage to spread to any more broker dealers.  However, I think there's more to go in the capital markets and banking industries.

 
Merrill Lynch people are going to love their new bank (not).
 
Sep 15, 2008 9:52 am
gvf:

AIG

We'll see if the Fed gives them a loan

 
When will AIG get rid of their TV commercials that say, "AIG.  The strength to be there"?  It's kind of misleading at this point.
Sep 15, 2008 10:59 am

I'm especially fond of the commercials where the elementary school kids are espousing the qualities of AIG

Sep 15, 2008 11:22 am
gvf:

I'm especially fond of the commercials where the elementary school kids are espousing the qualities of AIG

 
They might as well have had the kiddies from the elementary school running the company too...
Sep 15, 2008 12:18 pm

Forget LEH and MER, they're already done.  The effect of AIG failing could be even worse. 

Sep 15, 2008 12:30 pm

I think Wachovia is next if not right behind AIG.

Sep 15, 2008 12:36 pm
anabuhabkuss:

I think Wachovia is next if not right behind AIG.

 
Probably a fair assessment.
 
There was an interesting thing said on CNBC that the Fed may not have bailed out LEH and might not bail out AIG because they know there will be more to come that they will have to bail out.
 
This is crazy.  Probably a once in a lifetime thing that we all see it this bad. 
Sep 15, 2008 12:51 pm

"Guarantees are backed by the claims-paying ability of AIG Annuity Insurance Company."



Straight from their website. What do you think the exposure is and will there be a run on redemptions of annuities now? Think of ALL of the investors in fixed annuities that think they
are guaranteed.
Sep 15, 2008 1:06 pm
snaggletooth:

Forget LEH and MER, they're already done.  The effect of AIG failing could be even worse. 

 
Yup.
 
Wait until those annuity holders cash out.  There is a little-known clause that allows annuity holders to cash-out without penalty if an insurance company's net capital falls below a certain level.
Sep 15, 2008 6:45 pm
iceco1d:

I wonder what that does to previously paid commissions?  Are they charged back to the rep? 

 
Not sure, but as long as they've held it for a year, or 6 months with certain companies, there shouldn't be a charge back.
Sep 15, 2008 7:24 pm
anabuhabkuss:

I think Wachovia is next if not right behind AIG.


If that is the case then you can say goodbye to most if not all larger financials...WM NCC, FITB, KEY these will all fail soon...if WB fails so will Citi and others

Sep 15, 2008 11:14 pm

They have already told us that Bob McCaan (merrill's current head of advisors) will run the new Merrill Lynch wealth management platform.





Sep 16, 2008 1:39 pm
nestegg:
anabuhabkuss:

I think Wachovia is next if not right behind AIG.


If that is the case then you can say goodbye to most if not all larger financials...WM NCC, FITB, KEY these will all fail soon...if WB fails so will Citi and others

 
Clarification. I meant to say that I believe WB will be bought.
 
Curious, WB is trading at 11 today. Mer at 20. Hello, my name is BAC and I'm just window shopping hur. So, wow both Mer and WB/AGE have brokers. Nice. Can I take a look at WB? Wha? It's already on layaway but MEr wants to talk?
 
Or I'm just really feeling that sick today:)