September 2008 - Phase of collapse

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Feb 18, 2008 1:58 pm


 
 
http://www.leap2020.eu/GEAB-N-22-is-available!-Global-systemic-crisis-September-2008-Phase-of-collapse-of-US-real-economy_a1298.html?PHPSESSID=efb087a37c540698cb682b8acca67edd
 
Interesting whether you are a bull or bear.
 
"Our researchers insisted on that many times in the last two years: any comparison with the previous crises of our modern economy would be fallacious. It is neither a “remake” of the 1929 crisis nor a repetition of the 1970s oil crises or 1987 stock market crisis. It is truly a global systemic crisis, that is to say a crisis affecting the entire planet and questioning the very foundations of the international system upon which the world was organised in the last decades. "
 
 
http://www.economicindicators.gov/
 
read the top of this fed page....scary.

Feb 18, 2008 5:05 pm

Just for fun, I posted the first link in an email to the LPL morning call guys...I'll let you know what they have to say about it tomorrow morning.

 
For the record, it looks like a lot of goofy conspiracy theory stuff to me.
Feb 18, 2008 11:18 pm

I already know what LPL's response will be for it's salesforce, that is the danger of being a saleman in times like this.....we might ruin yourself and your clients. 

 




"Due to budgetary constraints, the Economic Indicators service (http://www.economicindicators.gov) will be discontinued effective March 1, 2008. "

 
Now that is an big Bear indicator..it is not budgetary..it is just the numbers are so so negative, they could no longer publish them.
 
What do you make of noRock???  I see a global bank run right now.  No money is available to originate debt. It is a $500 trillion dollar problem.  HISTORY IS BEING MADE. 
Feb 19, 2008 12:39 pm

"decoded news"? Give me a break. I suppose only the few who "know the code" get the real truth---ooooohhhhh, scaaaarrryyy!!!

Feb 19, 2008 4:33 pm

Those guys are a bunch of nutjobs.  Did you read the "About" section of the website. When someone refers to the new world order of 1945, you may want to stop reading.  Not to get into a religious debate, but it reminds me of some religions who have predicted the apocalypse on a certain date, only to keep moving that date further into the future as the event never happens.

Feb 19, 2008 4:51 pm

precisely

Feb 19, 2008 5:31 pm

NEWnew...its a euro page..decoded news just means translated news (as in from one language ie. french to another ie. English...im not pro/con the page..it just has some   info that my technical and market analysis confirms. 


NowIndy, nutjobs?..fox business and cnbs are full of nutjobs with a biased market analysis...Maria been asking if we've hit bottom since october.   New world order of 1945...Im sure you can guess that all it is saying is the change in world power after WW2..has nothing to do with religion  or predicting the apocalypse on a certain date..nothing weird or mysterious about it.  GEAB is not into market pumping (like CNBS or your company's sales desk).  It just reports global economic conditions with articles from bloomberg, reuters, cnn and many others.

Feb 19, 2008 6:00 pm

Well, apparently the powers at LPL are intimidated by GEAB, but I'm assured that they will respond either offline or on tomorrow's conference call.  Apparently my email was not received in time due to the holiday...but I think they're really just afraid to tackle the question...

 
When they address it, I promise to post a full report about our new world order...
Feb 19, 2008 6:06 pm
Feb 20, 2008 9:50 am

Nutjob or not..they peg alot of the issues that mainstream media does not, the things that marco-economists and fundamental analysts see...throw in the technicals for icing on the cake.  Brokers, it is time to think or sink.


 
The GEAB nutjobs made these predictions last year.....
 
1. Acceleration of the pace and size of bankruptcies among US financial organizations…
     Since late 2006 > 220 major lending operations have ‘imploded’

2. Spectacular rise of US home foreclosures…
    Up by ~75%

3. Accelerating collapse of housing prices in the US…   
    Yes

4. Entry into recession of the US economy…
    Recession has now arrived or will very shortly" (Jan Hatzius, the chief U.S. economist for Goldman Sachs)

5. Precipitous rate cut by the US Federal Reserve…
    Yes, biggest rate cut in 18 years

6. Growing importance of China-USA trade conflicts…
    The G7 has repeatedly called for an adjustment in global trade imbalances, including a rise in the renminbi

7. China's shift out of US dollars / Yen carry trade reversal…
    China indicated it could begin to diversify reserves away from the US dollar and government bonds

8. Sudden drop of US dollar value against Euro, Yuan and Yen…
    $/Euro from 0.76 to 0.66, a fall of >13%

9. Tumble of Sterling Pound…
    £/Euro from 1.50 to 1.35, a fall of >12%
______________________________________________________________________________
Feb 20, 2008 1:10 pm

...that's some of the same old tired one-sided rhetoric you've been posting from some time now.

 
220 MAJOR lending operations havd "imploded" - several problems here...not in context (out of how many?  What are MAJOR?  What is meant by IMPLODED (I haven't heard of bank failure rates even close to that number)).
 
75% increase in foreclosures is spectacular?!!  Please tell me you are kidding.  Be honest and give us the start and end numbers and let us judge if the increase is "spectacular" or not.
 
Accelerating housing price collapse - again, the language of fear-mongering.  I see nothing of the sort.  Some pockets which were overpriced returning to normal levels is hardly a collapse.  Frankly, such reversion to the mean is needed from time to time.  In our area, agricultural land prices are just off the charts stupid as I write.  Many here would welcome such a "collapse".
 
We're in a recession?  Also a matter of opinion.  Just because someone at GS says it's so doesn't make it so.  There is plenty of evidence to the contrary as not one of the classic indicators is currently showing recession.
 
Biggest rate cut in 18 years?  Big deal...the fed cut 75 bps instead of 50 bps.  That still puts us far from historic lows.
 
US-China trade conflicts...this is news?  It's been going on for years and years.
 
China's shift away from treasuries?  Again, that would be fine by me.  Treasury yields are absurdly low and a little reversion to the mean would be healthy in my opinion.
 
8&9 - "sudden drops" and "tumbles" - 12 & 13% hardly qualify for that.  Such fluctuations happen on a regular basis and can reverse with little notice or advance warning.
 
It's a real stretch to say that GEAB accurately predicted the vast majority of what you've asserted, since almost all of it depends on how the information is filtered.  I happen to see the majority of it in a different light than that of the GEAB loons and I haven't seen much to change my opinion.  What I see is typical cyclical changes in housing, oil prices and the economy in general.  To argue that "it's different this time" is to ignore the fact that there's pretty much ALWAYS something different about each economic cycle. I see nothing that suggests armageddon is just around the corner.  Instead I see typical challenges that will cycle through and have more or less normal end results.  The economy will go up and the economy will go down...followed by the economy going up...and coming down again.  You are a long way from proving to me that the economis cycle has been repealed and posting ridiculous crap like the GEAB website with it's "new world order" isn't helping your case.
 
I'm doing my best to remain civil, but posting opinion and numbers manipulated to support a cause as fact is beginning to get mildly annoying...you need to find a new mentor.
Feb 20, 2008 2:48 pm

Indyone, I agree completely with your post.

 
That website is a crock.  According to them, everthing is "Imploding" and "Collapsed"!  What's left?  If they're correct, soon everthing will have 'imploded' and 'collapsed' to the point where there's no more Web or global infrastructure for kooks to print their crackpot prophecies and distribute them to other crackpots. 
 
And after the Big Collapse and Implosion, then what?  GEAB will have to locally hand out calligraphied papyrus scrolls about their predicted turnip crop blight and the surely impending global devaluation of beaver pelts in our crumbling feudal society.
 
Fear mongers will always find a way to take idiots' money.  Broker7, did you already pay them $200 Euros for a subscription?
Feb 20, 2008 3:41 pm

last 2 posts excellent. Long live open-minded rationality. These GEAB guys would have stoned Galileo...

Feb 20, 2008 3:56 pm
Indy...dont take it so personally..time will tell..right??  The GEAB isn't me...it is just news available on the web. 
 
"I'm doing my best to remain civil, but posting opinion and numbers manipulated to support a cause as fact is beginning to get mildly annoying...you need to find a new mentor."
 
I do not have a bear mentor, I was a tech analyst, things didnt add up, recently I added fundamentals to my research..then things REALLY do not add up.  If you listen to the FED..or your sales desk..it is time to find a new mentor...their numbers, stats and rationale are warped to hell.   Agree to disagree...
 
 
NEWNEW..have you ever thought you are the one stoning galileo...
Feb 20, 2008 4:14 pm
Broker7:
The GEAB isn't me...it is just news available on the web. 
 
As someone else already pointed out, they're using fear-monger language.  It saps any credibility, IMO.  I imagine citing GEAB isn't going to help you push your bearish position onto the bulls.
 
I do not have a bear mentor, I was a tech analyst, things didnt add up, recently I added fundamentals to my research..then things REALLY do not add up.  If you listen to the FED..or your sales desk..it is time to find a new mentor...their numbers, stats and rationale are warped to hell.   Agree to disagree...
 
For example?  If given a choice, I'd rather see what you have researched (hopefully with credible and diverse support) than the Nostradamus' Quattrains crazy-streetcorner-preacher Chicken Little garbage from the GEAB website.
Feb 20, 2008 4:16 pm

each time we go through these things it is deemed "different" than the last timebecause of.........

Feb 20, 2008 4:44 pm

I have found that the "super-bear" prospects never change, no matter what the analysis is, no matter what the facts of BOTH sides of an argument are--they make for "super-bear" clients because they already know everything. My Galileo comment referred to how folks can so easily adopt a world-view that colors everything, that is the opposite of rose-colored glasses, that cannot see that they are probably wrong approx 50% of the time, and they annoy the hell out me as they spout this stuff in my office. I let 'em rant, and DO NOT bring out the new acct papers!

Feb 20, 2008 5:17 pm

Taco,

Technicals speak for themselves, trendline down.  Fundamentals: consumer confidence down, energy up, commodities up, real estate down, unemployment up, bankruptcies up, money supply down, credit availability down, consumer spending down, dollar down, fed rate down, fed spending up, all that BUT.....inflation up...add up those things up and read my previous posts. 
 
newnew,
I specialize in 6-7 figure bear clients. Send them my way.
Feb 20, 2008 5:32 pm
Broker7:

Taco,

Technicals speak for themselves, trendline down.  Fundamentals: consumer confidence down, energy up, commodities up, real estate down, unemployment up, bankruptcies up, money supply down, credit availability down, consumer spending down, dollar down, fed rate down, fed spending up, all that BUT.....inflation up...add up those things up and read my previous posts. 
 
I get it, this is the same information that is on my computer screen all day long, then it's on Nightly Business Report, the 6 oClock news, the newspaper, the weekly news magazines, client's minds and hearts and agendae...  but I keep telling them that recessions happen every 6 years or more on average, the ones that are accumulating have an excellent buying opportunity right now, and the ones that are spending are invested in a broadly diversified portfolio that we will strategically rebalance throughout our semi-annual or quarterly meetings, and whether this downturn lasts 6mos, 12mos, 18mos, or whether stocks go down even more before things get better are anyone's guess.  But things will be okay, and we have planned for the long term, and planned for economic downturns.  Then I let go of the client's hand, wish them well until the next time I see them or talk to them.  That's part of my job, to make sure they don't buy high and sell low.
 
newnew,
I specialize in 6-7 figure bear clients. Send them my way.
 
Do you invest 100% of their money in Prudent Bear funds? 
Feb 20, 2008 5:55 pm
Whats wrong with going to cash, commodities, oil, BRK, and shorts instead of holding a G and I fund that has been loosing since July 07??  Financials/ credit are a mess..it will be a longwhile and a long ways down till they "reset". Then we have the supply/demand resource/commodities crisis that is not being discussed due to current issues.  A small reminder..oil closed at $100.74 today.  $60 oil was the recessionary target 2 years ago.... 
 
I'm a long term BRK and USO bull..Buffet and co are 5 steps ahead of  fundmanagers and oil is a finite resource, mexico (our #2 supplier) is drying up and we have big problems with Venezuela and Nigeria (and most of opec for that matter).
 
Prudent bear....no...but I'll be glad to sell you some...if you cannot broker noloads.