Retail?

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Aug 14, 2007 2:47 pm

The credit crunch is materializing in new and interesting ways.


I own 49% of a small chain of mall jewelry stores in Florida.  This is the time of year we should be ordering for the upcoming Christmas season.


My brother-in-law, who owns the 51%, just called to tell me that he was told that our biggest vendor is raising its commitment level.


In the past they would give us, say, $1,000,000 worth of inventory as long as we committed to buy at least 20% of it and return everything else.  Arrangements like that make having full showcases easier.


Well, now they want us to commit to buying 50% of what they leave with us, and besides that they want to have a dozen post dated checks totaling that 50%.


They apologize and say that their banks are forcing them to make this "adjustment."


There are a lot of "Mom and Pop" retailers out here who will be carrying a lot less inventory this year.  Down retail sales is not good for stock prices.


Add to the mix that, apparently, almost every toy in the world is made in China and therefore subject to being contaminated in one form or another and it seems like we're not going to have a very Merry Christmas.


I suppose we should just stay long and ride it out.

Aug 14, 2007 3:07 pm

First, let me say that I am skeptical about the truth of absolutely EVERYTHING DAtoo writes, that being said: Isn't it funny how when one factor or another leads to a tough time for any particular type of business, the howls rise from those affected that this factor will lead to the downfall of the entire American economy?


 Guess what, Dipstick, the world doesn't revolve around you. I know it seems unbelievable, but it's true.

Aug 14, 2007 3:11 pm
YHWY:

First, let me say that I am skeptical about the truth of absolutely EVERYTHING DAtoo writes, that being said: Isn't it funny how when one factor or another leads to a tough time for any particular type of business, the howls rise from those affected that this factor will lead to the downfall of the entire American economy?


 Guess what, Dipstick, the world doesn't revolve around you. I know it seems unbelievable, but it's true.



So you think retailers unable to get inventory at Christmas is a positive sign?

Aug 14, 2007 3:13 pm

I'm saying that I don't care about you being screwed buy your alleged suppliers.

Aug 14, 2007 3:17 pm
YHWY:

I'm saying that I don't care about you being screwed buy your alleged suppliers.


Are you not bright enough to grasp the significance of retailers being unable to afford inventory?


You know what, I don't care that you cannot. There are people who are reading this forum that are not dumb as a stump.


I'm talking to them.


You're dismissed.

Aug 14, 2007 3:22 pm

I am bright enough to grasp that just becauce a Dipstick like you says that we face an inminent retail inventory crisis doesn't neccessarily make it so. I happen to diagree with your analysis. You see, Bears have been consistently wrong for over 75 years.



 Plus, I picked up 10 SEP $200 AMD Calls today, just for fun.

Aug 14, 2007 3:23 pm

Sorry, RIMM, I mean. Trying to do too many things at once.

Aug 14, 2007 3:25 pm
YHWY:

Sorry, RIMM, I mean. Trying to do too many things at once.


Yeah there's a sign of an honest guy.

Aug 14, 2007 3:28 pm

You're right putting in an order for AMD while typing to you makes me a liar.


 Anyway, I'll hold the RIMM Calls for a few days simply based on your advice as a counter-indicator. Wish me luck. Good luck with your shorts and the impending retail implossion.


Aug 14, 2007 3:30 pm
YHWY:

I am bright enough to grasp that just becauce a Dipstick like you says that we face an inminent retail inventory crisis doesn't neccessarily make it so. I happen to diagree with your analysis. You see, Bears have been consistently wrong for over 75 years.



I'm not bearish at all.  In fact I'm long across the board including in RIMM right now.  I covered 500 shares of the short stock at 206.10, leaving me net short puts.


You think we've been in a 75 year long bull market?


You're too dumb for me to waste my time with.  You're permitted to read what I have to say, but don't respond because all you'll be doing is telling everybody else that I own you.

Aug 14, 2007 3:37 pm

Why yes, I do think we're been in a 75 year Bull market. Had one invested a small sum in any of the few available mutual funds back 75 years ago when when you were a teenager, I think the result would have been favorable.


 Everyone on this site owns you. You've proven to us all exactly what you are. End every post with words to the effect of "Guess we should stay long and hope for the best" after harping on impending doom then write with indignation that you are, in fact long accross the board is laughable. Of course, your wife runs the real money, right, so, who knows?



Aug 14, 2007 4:01 pm

For those who are following the trade--I covered 500 RIMM at 206.10 expecting it to bounce.


It did not so I put the leg down again at 206.35--made about $100 after the $14 round trip commission.


I know you wish me well. I can feel the love.

Aug 14, 2007 4:06 pm

Back to the topic,


 I own a small chain of S&M mall shops in Florida. All, coincidentally, are adjacent to a small chain of mall jewlry stores. I, too am concerned about having inventory this Christmas. This is not a result of difficulties with my suppliers, but rather hyper-demand. It seems each time I stock my store with new merchandise, the minority owner of the jewelry chain accross the way snatches it all up. It's been great for business, but I worry about the poor fellow and what he could possibly be doing with hundreds of ceiling swings, ball gags and other unmentionables.

Aug 14, 2007 4:11 pm
YHWY:

Back to the topic,


 I own a small chain of S&M mall shops in Florida. All, coincidentally, are adjacent to a small chain of mall jewlry stores. I, too am concerned about having inventory this Christmas. This is not a result of difficulties with my suppliers, but rather hyper-demand. It seems each time I stock my store with new merchandise, the minority owner of the jewelry chain accross the way snatches it all up. It's been great for business, but I worry about the poor fellow and what he could possibly be doing with hundreds of ceiling swings, ball gags and other unmentionables.



Leave the humor to the funny people.


How sad that you have nothing better to do.  The road map to failure goes right through wasting time on message boards.

Aug 14, 2007 4:12 pm

K- That's one for "Not Funny". Anyone else ??????

Aug 14, 2007 5:01 pm
DAtoo:

The credit crunch is materializing in new and interesting ways.


I own 49% of a small chain of mall jewelry stores in Florida.  This is the time of year we should be ordering for the upcoming Christmas season.


My brother-in-law, who owns the 51%, just called to tell me that he was told that our biggest vendor is raising its commitment level.


In the past they would give us, say, $1,000,000 worth of inventory as long as we committed to buy at least 20% of it and return everything else.  Arrangements like that make having full showcases easier.


Well, now they want us to commit to buying 50% of what they leave with us, and besides that they want to have a dozen post dated checks totaling that 50%.


They apologize and say that their banks are forcing them to make this "adjustment."


There are a lot of "Mom and Pop" retailers out here who will be carrying a lot less inventory this year.  Down retail sales is not good for stock prices.


Add to the mix that, apparently, almost every toy in the world is made in China and therefore subject to being contaminated in one form or another and it seems like we're not going to have a very Merry Christmas.


I suppose we should just stay long and ride it out.



The lack of inventory turn in retail is a big thing that will (if it continues) have a ripple effect throughout manufacturing sectors.  Some sectors like your jewelry enterprise are probably impacted more and sooner because jewelry is a luxury good; but nevertheless, not a good sign.  The younger guys need to pay attention here.


Wal Mart has expressed negativity just today and said that they expect a downturn in their customer's buying.  If you can't buy it at WalMart, I guess you don't buy it at all.


Hopefully, this is an over reaction to the credit market's lack of liquidity, but with the rising costs of manufacturing, oil and gas related industries and the Democrats threatening to raise taxes on the wealthy and punish businesses with additional taxes......I have a deja vu Jimmy Carter feeling all over again.  Maybe we should sit on cash on the sidelines and wait for bonds to go to double digit rates and then go long bonds.


It did not so I put the leg down again at 206.35--made about $100 after the $14 round trip commission.


Wow, impressive. My husband makes that much on an hourly basis, without a college diploma and no angst. 

Aug 14, 2007 5:05 pm

How sad that you have nothing better to do.


I pray that one day you will wake up and realize what an absolute pathetic existence you lead.

Aug 15, 2007 1:07 am
DAtoo:

I own 49% of a small chain of mall jewelry stores in Florida.



Liar.

Aug 15, 2007 9:26 am
joedabrkr:
DAtoo:

I own 49% of a small chain of mall jewelry stores in Florida.




Liar.


You have never heard of a business being formed by two relatives?

Aug 15, 2007 10:42 am
DAtoo:
joedabrkr:
DAtoo:

I own 49% of a small chain of mall jewelry stores in Florida.




Liar.


You have never heard of a business being formed by two relatives?



Yeah, but never two relatives that have webbed fingers.