North Korean "Nuke" Speculation

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Oct 9, 2006 8:40 pm

I may be wrong, but I would bet that the North Korean "nuke" test simply consisted of some TNT and radioactive material. TNT to mimic similar effects (as a nuke explosion) on a Richter scale and the subtle release of radioactive material to be picked-up by sensors.


Given the weak explosive effect of the blast, I wouldn't put it past them to try and con the world. And you can bet Iran is watching our reaction.


...back to my fallout shelter.

Oct 9, 2006 9:13 pm
doberman:

I may be wrong, but I would bet that the North Korean "nuke" test simply consisted of some TNT and radioactive material. TNT to mimic similar effects (as a nuke explosion) on a Richter scale and the subtle release of radioactive material to be picked-up by sensors.


Given the weak explosive effect of the blast, I wouldn't put it past them to try and con the world. And you can bet Iran is watching our reaction.


...back to my fallout shelter.



I've had the same thought.

Oct 9, 2006 10:07 pm

I never thought of that. But that is very interesting. 

Oct 9, 2006 10:21 pm

To what end?  Even that pinhead Kim Jong Il knows that if you have many nukes, you're a threat...if you have one nuke, you're a target.


And they do have the technology...bet on it.

Oct 10, 2006 2:52 am

The Chinese will deal with the North Koreans. There are too many Chinese IPO's on tap for them not to.

Oct 10, 2006 8:33 am

The Chinese actually have as much, if not more, to worry about from North Korea as anyone. 

Oct 10, 2006 8:39 am

Interesting line of conversation.  Don't forget that the Olympics are coming to China - the whole world will be eye-balling that region under a microscope.  The Chinese are at risk of losing Billions if athletes are the only ones who show up.

Oct 10, 2006 10:38 am

I just read an article that refuted the "big pile of TNT" theory.  Turns out moving THAT much material into the cave would be impossible to hide.

It's more likely that this was a "partial success" or a "partial failure", whatever that means.

Oct 10, 2006 12:21 pm

Pulling troops out of Korea recently probably sent the wrong message.

Oct 10, 2006 4:43 pm

It now looks like their test was a partial failure - like Jeff said.  Apparantly the rubber bands and duct tape began to unravel just before it went off - according to the North Korean reporter who was 'assigned' to cover the live explosion at close proximity.

Oct 10, 2006 4:55 pm
apprentice:

It now looks like their test was a partial failure - like Jeff said.  Apparantly the rubber bands and duct tape began to unravel just before it went off - according to the North Korean reporter who was 'assigned' to cover the live explosion at close proximity.


That's a sexy job to have. 

Oct 11, 2006 12:15 am

I think we should institue a full naval blockade of N. Korea immediately.  Nothing comes in or goes out.  Ask the Chinese to do the same by land.  If they refuse to play along, immediately place a 50% tariff on all Chinese goods coming into the United States.  What would N. Korea do? 


Probably start launching artillery shells at downtown Seoul.  That would probably go on for 3-4 weeks.  When they ran out of ammuntion, then give them what they have always asked for--direct talks with the United States (while we're holding their balls). 


There might be some other good to come from such a policy.  Wal-Mart might cease to exist.  The Chinese might start dumping our Treasuries by the billions, forcing us to clean up our negative savings rate, and the Chinese might lose their chance at hosting the Olympics.  Are these really bad things?

Oct 11, 2006 8:35 am

Carefull - you don't want to upset Kim Dung Ill (aka: Menta Li Ill).  He may fling a bottle rocket towards Gwam. 


What's wrong with Wal-mart?  Don't tell me you're buying into the 'wal-mart' is evil prop.  Just because they don't bow to the extortion practices of unionized labor doesn't mean that you should wish their demise.

Oct 11, 2006 8:39 am

Gwam?  Is that anywhere near Guam?

Oct 11, 2006 8:49 am

Yes - Gwam, that's about as close to the US as they could get with their technology.

Oct 11, 2006 10:25 am
apprentice:

It now looks like their test was a partial failure - like Jeff said.  Apparantly the rubber bands and duct tape began to unravel just before it went off - according to the North Korean reporter who was 'assigned' to cover the live explosion at close proximity.



Don't underestimate a hungry, rabid dog.  The only thing holding that country together is their hatred of the United States.

Just because they can't produce a critical mass explosion doesn't make them harmless.  For example, they probably have the materials for a dirty bomb.

It doesn't matter whether the US or China does this, but the situation needs to be handled.

Oct 11, 2006 11:42 am

It will be handled - by China.  The US should not give them the time of day.  He wants attention from the US - we should ignore Dung Ill (politically ignore).  Involvment from the US should be to ramp up Japan.


Oct 11, 2006 1:50 pm

What tangled web. Il doesn't want nuclear war any more than we do. He wants our attention. Well, he's got it.


Here are some of the options:


Sanctions - We could stop all trade with North Korea. Big problem, nobody trades with them now, for the most part, with the exception of China. China has said we are going too far with the sanctions we are proposing. So, if we can't cut off their largest trading partner how will this work?


Conventional military action - Well, let's see, we attack NK to force a regime change and disarmament. They fight back with their million man army. Seoul South Korea gets turned into Bagdad east by their air force and artillary. Add 300,000 to 500,000 dead military on our side, many of those american, plus the high six figure civilian body count, and it's an ugly option. But it gets worse. China is still obligated to defend North Korea by the same treaty agreement that brought them into the Korean war. They've got a lot more to lose now than then, but are will willing to roll those dice? Lastly, any armed conflict in Korea would disrupt the entire asian rim. And speaking of rims, the world's economy would be circling one in this scenerio. A painless click of the remote would not remove the reality of this war from our lives as it does with the war in Iraq. Not to mention the millions of people who would have worthless warranties on their Hyundais and KIAs.


Tactical nuclear war - Strike the facilities that are keeping us awake at night. See conventional war for the expected result.


Create regional nuclear powers - arm Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan with Nukes and strike a nuclear balance in the area. Besides a big no from China, this doesn't solve our biggest global concern with NK. That is their likelyhood to sell Nuclear bombs, technology, or materials to terrorist. That is, if they haven't already done so.


Talk - Not talking hasn't worked. This is Bush playing hardball. And while hardball must be played, a different route to the bargaining table must be found. A way must be found to give Il an out, and at the same time disarm him. NK has bargained in the past. They have shown that they are willing to deal. Verifiable destruction of the fuel rods, all existing nuclear weapons, and materials, as well as conventional heavy weapons is what we want. We do the same on our side with the conventional weapons in SKand give NK a path to join the world's economic order.


Bush isn't my first choice for getting this done. Just what we needed, a nuclear showdown with this guy at the helm. Lumping NK into the axis of evil didn't help our position. Neither does the doctrine of preemptive disarmament. If you were Il, you'd be building Nuclear bombs too.


Unfortunately, this could get very ugly.


Oct 11, 2006 2:04 pm
BondGuy:

What tangled web. Il doesn't want nuclear war any more than we do. He wants our attention. Well, he's got it.


Here are some of the options:


Sanctions - We could stop all trade with North Korea. Big problem, nobody trades with them now, for the most part, with the exception of China. China has said we are going too far with the sanctions we are proposing. So, if we can't cut off their largest trading partner how will this work?


Conventional military action - Well, let's see, we attack NK to force a regime change and disarmament. They fight back with their million man army. Seoul South Korea gets turned into Bagdad east by their air force and artillary. Add 300,000 to 500,000 dead military on our side, many of those american, plus the high six figure civilian body count, and it's an ugly option. But it gets worse. China is still obligated to defend North Korea by the same treaty agreement that brought them into the Korean war. They've got a lot more to lose now than then, but are will willing to roll those dice? Lastly, any armed conflict in Korea would disrupt the entire asian rim. And speaking of rims, the world's economy would be circling one in this scenerio. A painless click of the remote would not remove the reality of this war from our lives as it does with the war in Iraq. Not to mention the millions of people who would have worthless warranties on their Hyundais and KIAs.


Tactical nuclear war - Strike the facilities that are keeping us awake at night. See conventional war for the expected result.


Create regional nuclear powers - arm Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan with Nukes and strike a nuclear balance in the area. Besides a big no from China, this doesn't solve our biggest global concern with NK. That is their likelyhood to sell Nuclear bombs, technology, or materials to terrorist. That is, if they haven't already done so.


Talk - Not talking hasn't worked. This is Bush playing hardball. And while hardball must be played, a different route to the bargaining table must be found. A way must be found to give Il an out, and at the same time disarm him. NK has bargained in the past. They have shown that they are willing to deal. Verifiable destruction of the fuel rods, all existing nuclear weapons, and materials, as well as conventional heavy weapons is what we want. We do the same on our side with the conventional weapons in SKand give NK a path to join the world's economic order.


Bush isn't my first choice for getting this done. Just what we needed, a nuclear showdown with this guy at the helm. Lumping NK into the axis of evil didn't help our position. Neither does the doctrine of preemptive disarmament. If you were Il, you'd be building Nuclear bombs too.


Unfortunately, this could get very ugly.




ugh.  I think I'm going to go raise some cash.....

Oct 11, 2006 2:22 pm

The first thing that entered my mind when the news broke on this the other day is "and we're bringing a baby into this world."  Who knows what will happen, but it does get very real and very scary when you think about the extremes.