The mortgage debt bubble

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Mar 5, 2007 9:24 pm

which banks, brokerage, regional banks are going to take the hit as the real estate bubble implodes. obviously the sub-prime is first.  who is next when the 1 trillion in ARM's reset this year?  any ideas?, i chickened out shorting the sub prime even though i have talked about it for over a year. I pissed people off by talking about it on my radio show a few months back before this fallout happened. Why can a broker fiqure this out over a year ago and analyst could not? today, all the brokerage firms downgrade NEW, ect. How do they keep their jobs?

Mar 5, 2007 10:11 pm

The short side tastes very, very sweet.  I had to cover one of my shorts before I wanted to because my firm could no longer borrow the shares.  But, the short side still paid for me to take my family, my parents, and my in-laws to Hawaii this summer and stay at some pretty damn nice hotels.  

Mar 5, 2007 10:14 pm

Sorry but I think your late to this trade. But you can check this out for sh*ts

and giggles.



ml-implode.com



I ought to start charging for this intel.



I own shares in Clayton (CLAY)

Good luck.

Mar 5, 2007 10:44 pm

Sooth--


Let me guess--You work at Jones and that's why your firm couldn't buy any more shares!  Just like that inventory of 30 year tax free bonds netting 2.5!

Mar 5, 2007 10:46 pm

Not for almost 4 years now.  But, good guess! 

Mar 7, 2007 7:05 am
skeedaddy2:

I own shares in Clayton (CLAY)

Good luck.





Up 11.50% yesterday.    One instance where volatility is your "friend".

Mar 7, 2007 5:39 pm
aldo63:

which banks, brokerage, regional banks are going to take the hit as the real estate bubble implodes. obviously the sub-prime is first. 



None. You heard it here first. There is no national "bubble" because there is no national real estate market. While some formerly super-hot areas are slumping, things are picking up in others.


Now, do me a favor and take a short position against a few I own with good balance sheets. 

Mar 7, 2007 8:26 pm

REAL ESTATE WILL BE A FLAT INVESTMENT OVER THE NEXT 4 YEARS


DOUBLE DIGIT RETURNS HAVE CAUGHT UP WITH THEMSELVES AND THE CYCLE WILL BALANCE OUT THE ABNORMAL RETURNS


SAME THING THAT HAPPENED TO STOCK MKT (ABNORMAL RETURNS 98,99,00)  


REAL ESTATE IS NOT AS VOLATILE OF AN INVESTMENT AS STOCK (REAL ESTATE ALSO HAS MUCH LOWER EXPECTED RETURN), SO RETURNS WILL BE FLAT, NOT DOWN

Mar 7, 2007 9:02 pm

I know this isnt exactly staying true to the thread's discussion thus far....


International Realty. IRFAX. Clients who own large real estate holdings love it. Natural play on emerging REIT markets overseas (developed Europe) and reemergence of Japanese/ Asian economies.. Benefits if the dollar declines. Low dividend yield right now but anticipated to double in next 2-3 years. Great capital appreciation potential and eventual total return play.


"Mr Client, lets take the growth off your domestic REIT funds or hedge your large real estate holdings here and start to build a position in this tactical idea..."


My clients love it.  I love it. You will too

Mar 8, 2007 2:39 am
blarmston:

"Mr Client, lets take the growth off your domestic
REIT funds or hedge your large real estate holdings here and start to
build a position in this tactical idea..."


My clients love it.  I love it. You will too





Blarm, I would be very careful with international RE funds, as IMHO the equity REIT bubble is as bad out there as it is here.
To me it is like moving from the main dining room to the grand ballroom
of the Titanic. A change of opulence, but still doomed.



There is pretty much a world wide CRE (Commercial real estate)
boom/bubble. If clients own US equity BIGREITs, they (just like Sam
Zell) should be selling.



Right now, I'm buying commerical mortgage REITs, NNN reits, residential
mortgage! and REIT preferreds and developing an unrealised interest in
healthcare REITs.


Mar 8, 2007 10:56 am

It's a tactical play I have been using. Say about 10-15% at the max into a diversified core portfolio. Of all the research / diligence i have done, it seems ot be a volatile area, but oine that has extraordinary appreciation potnetial. My clients understand the many levels of risk, and most are comfortable peeling off a certain % and attempting to achieve outsived returns here...


Good point though.

Mar 8, 2007 10:57 am

Sorry about the typos- coffee hasn't kicked in yet.

Jul 27, 2007 3:02 pm

i thought i would reactivate this link. am i wrong now??????