Long oil?
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[quote=mikebutler222]
Gee, and we were all getting along so nicely... a bunch of investment professionals...talking about the market...and you had to go personal. Well, I'm not going to take the bait, but I will give you a quote that provides some context to the direction the conversation took;
I've been long "all things energy" since Dec. 2000. Don't remember exactly what turned me on, but a combination of events/articles convinced me that the world was up against a supply problem of unprecedented proportions. "All things energy" include, oil, nat.gas, coal, drilling, transportation of same but only in North America. These impending shortages change everything we have been taught about investing.
Now, perhaps you can explain to me in civil terms how that's an argument that current prices aren't being effected by "supply problem" and not the risk premimum I mentioned.
[/quote]
the "peak oil" crowd talks very specifically/theoretically about the bell-curve properties inherent in the supply/extraction process of oil/natural gas- no one here has linked the theory to the current price-- except you, so that you could subsequently "knock that one out of the park" -
the last sentence of your statement, which turns the discussion from the "peak oil" theory to "..that current prices aren't being effected by "supply problem"" underscores the way you sometimes turn the topic to suit your side of the discussion.
you can have a short-term "supply problem" without it being any way related to the "peak oil" theory as the cause- Katrina, and the very political problems that you point out, can/do lead to short term supply problems-- but those won't cause the world to run out of oil long-term.
[quote=TexasRep][quote=mikebutler222]
Gee, and we were all getting along so nicely... a bunch of investment professionals...talking about the market...and you had to go personal. Well, I'm not going to take the bait, but I will give you a quote that provides some context to the direction the conversation took;
I've been long "all things energy" since Dec. 2000. Don't remember exactly what turned me on, but a combination of events/articles convinced me that the world was up against a supply problem of unprecedented proportions. "All things energy" include, oil, nat.gas, coal, drilling, transportation of same but only in North America. These impending shortages change everything we have been taught about investing.
Now, perhaps you can explain to me in civil terms how that's an argument that current prices aren't being effected by "supply problem" and not the risk premimum I mentioned.
[/quote]
the "peak oil" crowd talks very specifically/theoretically about the bell-curve properties inherent in the supply/extraction process of oil/natural gas- no one here has linked the theory to the current price-- except you, so that you could subsequently "knock that one out of the park" -
the last sentence of your statement, which turns the discussion from the "peak oil" theory to "..that current prices aren't being effected by "supply problem"" underscores the way you sometimes turn the topic to suit your side of the discussion.
you can have a short-term "supply problem" without it being any way related to the "peak oil" theory as the cause- Katrina, and the very political problems that you point out, can/do lead to short term supply problems-- but those won't cause the world to run out of oil long-term.
[/quote]
Are you telling me that "....the world was up against a supply problem of unprecedented proportions." and " These impending shortages change everything we have been taught about investing." comments don't relate to the "peak oil" theory thread from which they jumped?
http://forums.registeredrep.com/forum_posts.asp?TID=2012& ;PN=0&TPN=1
Also, the refernce to "since Dec 2000" means to you that he was talking about short-term supply issues like Katrina?
[quote=mikebutler222]
Are you telling me that "....the world was up against a supply problem of unprecedented proportions." and " These impending shortages change everything we have been taught about investing." comments don't relate to the "peak oil" theory thread from which they jumped?
http://forums.registeredrep.com/forum_posts.asp?TID=2012& ; ;PN=0&TPN=1
Also, the refernce to "since Dec 2000" means to you that he was talking about short-term supply issues like Katrina?
[/quote]
again, "...Katrina, and the very political problems that you point out, can/do lead to short term supply problems-- but those won't cause the world to run out of oil long-term..."
in the 2000 we were still dealing with OPEC, unstable regimes situated over the world's reserves (remember what happened in 2001?), and new gas refineries not being built, all of which will hiccup from time to time and cause "supply-issues" regardless of the overall global supply of oil in reserves.
you can still bet on supply issues being a short term play simply by understanding that our extraction/refinering processes are maxxed out, and that since hurricane season is upon us, bet that we will take another Gulf-hit this year which would then lead to a short-term supply issue---- again, unrelated to the "peak oil" theory.
The Peak Oil discussion is interesting. Common sense dictates that a peak in production will (or maybe has already) eventually happen. It is a finite resource after all. We won't know when the peak was until many years after. A better view on energy is historical. Oil has always been a boom/bust industry (read "The Prize" by Yergin). We currently have plenty of oil, peak or no peak. Prices will come down relative to demand. When the next global slowdown occurs, watch out. In the meantime, buy during oil price weakness and sell during strength.
[quote=TexasRep][quote=mikebutler222]
Are you telling me that "....the world was up against a supply problem of unprecedented proportions." and " These impending shortages change everything we have been taught about investing." comments don't relate to the "peak oil" theory thread from which they jumped?
http://forums.registeredrep.com/forum_posts.asp?TID=2012& ; ; ;PN=0&TPN=1
Also, the refernce to "since Dec 2000" means to you that he was talking about short-term supply issues like Katrina?
[/quote]
again, "...Katrina, and the very political problems that you point out, can/do lead to short term supply problems-- but those won't cause the world to run out of oil long-term..."
in the 2000 we were still dealing with OPEC, unstable regimes situated over the world's reserves (remember what happened in 2001?), and new gas refineries not being built, all of which will hiccup from time to time and cause "supply-issues" regardless of the overall global supply of oil in reserves.
you can still bet on supply issues being a short term play simply by understanding that our extraction/refinering processes are maxxed out, and that since hurricane season is upon us, bet that we will take another Gulf-hit this year which would then lead to a short-term supply issue---- again, unrelated to the "peak oil" theory.
[/quote]
Everything you've mentioned is of a short term nature and sounds to me unrelated to long term issues as mentioned in "....the world was up against a supply problem of unprecedented proportions." and " These impending shortages change everything we have been taught about investing." .
Could you name something in your response that is covered by Revealer's quote? Secondly, why pretend the other thread doesn't exist?
[quote=Pandale]
The Peak Oil discussion is interesting. Common sense dictates that a peak in production will (or maybe has already) eventually happen. It is a finite resource after all. [/quote]
Maybe not. That's one theory. Here is another.
http://freeenergynews.com/Directory/Theory/SustainableOil/in dex.html
sure--- if refineries are maxxed, and new ones are not being built, then short-term supply problems will happen from time to time and with increasing frequency as our usage increases--- again, unrelated to the overall supply of global reserves addressed in the "peak-oil" theory--
what part of the other thread?
[quote=Revealer] I disagree. Energy investments are NOT easy to sell. Very simply because most people, like you, don't want to believe this is happening. [/quote]
I don't know about anyone else, but I've found them to be a very, very easy sell. In fact I'm concerned about how many clients sound now like they did in 1997-1999 when they wanted to sell everything and buy the hot dot. So many of them are convinced that oil prices can only go up and never again down that I’m feeling the way I did when I read the WSJ articles of the late 1990s about NYC cab drivers pulling over with fares waiting in the back so that they could make a trade on their lap top.<?:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />
Anyone else seeing this?
[quote=TexasRep]
sure--- if refineries are maxxed, and new ones are not being built, then short-term supply problems will happen from time to time and with increasing frequency as our usage increases--- again, unrelated to the overall supply of global reserves addressed in the "peak-oil" theory--
what part of the other thread?
[/quote]
Why are you working so hard to dispute what Revealer himself has said? Of course the quotes I gave you were about long-term supply problems and not short term issues which simply can't be label "unprecedented". Read the other thread, start at the top. He supports “peak oil” there repeatedly and uses it as an underpinning for his views on oil prices moving forward.<?:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />
i'm disputing no one but your:
"...IMHO all the talk about “peak oil” affecting current prices is just talk..."
[quote=TexasRep]
i'm disputing no one but your:
"...IMHO all the talk about “peak oil” affecting current prices is just talk..."
[/quote]
I'm going no further with you in this circle, read the link to the thread I gave you and the "peak oil" under pinnings for the quotes I provided.
[quote=TexasRep][quote=mikebutler222]
.....I'm aware of the cost of extracting the reserves, and as you well know, it still doesn't justify the current price. IMHO all the talk about “peak oil” affecting current prices is just talk, and prices are only moving on a larger than usual risk premium. As to the risk premium and whether or not it will "go away", the short answer is I think it will shrink to historic norms.
There's always been a risk premium of some size in energy prices and it expands and contracts with events. Personally I think it’s currently grossly exaggerated (as do people as diverse in opinion as the former CEO of Exxon and members of OPEC). It wasn’t all peace and light in the late 1990s when oil was at $16 a barrel and the world isn’t coming to an end (and we aren’t running out of energy) now at $75.
[/quote]
i've read nowhere anyone saying that "peak oil" is affecting current prices -- no one rational anyway.
but you've already proven that you'll make up your own enemy so you can shoot it down in an effort to solidify your position-
effective? yeah. honest? no.
[/quote]
Exactly....
[quote=dude][quote=TexasRep][quote=mikebutler222]
.....I'm aware of the cost of extracting the reserves, and as you well know, it still doesn't justify the current price. IMHO all the talk about “peak oil” affecting current prices is just talk, and prices are only moving on a larger than usual risk premium. As to the risk premium and whether or not it will "go away", the short answer is I think it will shrink to historic norms.
There's always been a risk premium of some size in energy prices and it expands and contracts with events. Personally I think it’s currently grossly exaggerated (as do people as diverse in opinion as the former CEO of Exxon and members of OPEC). It wasn’t all peace and light in the late 1990s when oil was at $16 a barrel and the world isn’t coming to an end (and we aren’t running out of energy) now at $75.
[/quote]
i've read nowhere anyone saying that "peak oil" is affecting current prices -- no one rational anyway.
but you've already proven that you'll make up your own enemy so you can shoot it down in an effort to solidify your position-
effective? yeah. honest? no.
[/quote]
Exactly....
[/quote]
Dude, you're late to the party and I'm not interested in a whizzing contest. <?:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" />Tex, in his eagerness to make up for who knows what commented on my post before he knew what had been said on the subject in the prior thread.<?:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />
[quote=TexasRep][quote=mikebutler222]
.....I'm aware of the cost of extracting the reserves, and as you well know, it still doesn't justify the current price. IMHO all the talk about “peak oil” affecting current prices is just talk, and prices are only moving on a larger than usual risk premium. As to the risk premium and whether or not it will "go away", the short answer is I think it will shrink to historic norms.
There's always been a risk premium of some size in energy prices and it expands and contracts with events. Personally I think it’s currently grossly exaggerated (as do people as diverse in opinion as the former CEO of Exxon and members of OPEC). It wasn’t all peace and light in the late 1990s when oil was at $16 a barrel and the world isn’t coming to an end (and we aren’t running out of energy) now at $75.
[/quote]
i've read nowhere anyone saying that "peak oil" is affecting current prices -- no one rational anyway.[/quote]
Perhaps I could have saved us all some bandwidth if I'd just responded to the above with;
http://forums.registeredrep.com/forum_posts.asp?TID=2012 I think if you read this thread you'll read exactly that....
i read nothing about the impending doom of mankind related to the peak-oil theory in that thread-- but that you did only proves my point about how you can manipulate the context to support your side--
you keep running from yourself here mike- i just wanted to point out that you can play supply games with oil stocks due to short term glitches, and not be a peak-oil nut job--
i read nothing about the impending doom of mankind related to the peak-oil theory in that thread--<?:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />
note to self... some people will take you literally when you jokely say "end of the world".....
but that you did only proves my point about how you can manipulate the context to support your side--
Sorry, <?:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" />Tex, but it proves nothing of the sort. Revealer, on that thread, voiced support for the "peak oil" theory. In this thread he talked how he came to the conclusion in Dec of 2000 that we faced " a supply problem of unprecedented proportions " and how "these impending shortages change everything we have been taught about investing." and his belief that we're only in the beginning rounds of higher oil prices.
You might think it's unfair or a "manipulation of context" to link the two. I don't, I think it’s obvious his comments are each part of his philosophical approach to investing in energy. You'll notice Revealer himself never tried to make the case that you're trying to make.
you keep running from yourself here mike-
No, Tex, you're just not familiar with what was said before you entered my conversation with Revealer.
i just wanted to point out that you can play supply games with oil stocks due to short term glitches, and not be a peak-oil nut job--
I never said you couldn't, and I don't recall saying "peak-oil nut job". I was referring to Revealer's comments (see above for the quotes) specifically, and they were about long term trends. For whatever reason you decided to attempt to apply my specifically directed comments to other situations.
Now, if you’d like to talk about future engery trends, I’m happy to continue. If all you’re interested in doing is taking my posts and twisting them to “prove” that I twist posts, I’m not interested in continuing. Life’s too short for whizzing contests, but I’m happy to learn if real if a real exchange of ideas is what’s going on.
[quote=mikebutler222][quote=Revealer][quote=mikebutler222]
[quote=Revealer]He's right. (If not a little "fringy").....convinced me that the world was up against a supply problem of unprecedented proportions. "All things energy" include, oil, nat.gas, coal, drilling, transportation of same but only in North America. These impending shortages change everything we have been taught about investing.[/quote]
Well, there are plenty of folks, it would seem, who are convinced that there's an "energy shortage" (ignoring the massive US coal reserves, increasing abilities to draw oil in places we couldn’t before, the recent demand destruction we saw at the last peak of gas prices and the tanking price of natural gas) and don’t think the current price of a barrel of oil has anything to do with a massive risk premium thanks to Chavez in Venezuela, Iran’s nuke stand-off with the world and the missile launches from the lunatic in North Korea.
Count me in the latter camp….
[/quote] Mike: Please don't take my quotes out of context. I would ask that the readers read my ENTIRE comment. As far as lots of reserves of alternative source..... You are right. What I want you to do is some research on the COST of extracting those reserves. Of course there is a geopolitical premium in the price of oil. Think that's gonna go away?[/quote]
Sorry, Revealer, but I don't see where your message was changed when I trimmed down the post to the specific point I wanted to address. But, others can read your original post in its entirety to make their own decision. <?:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />
I'm aware of the cost of extracting the reserves, and as you well know, it still doesn't justify the current price. IMHO all the talk about “peak oil” affecting current prices is just talk, and prices are only moving on a larger than usual risk premium. As to the risk premium and whether or not it will "go away", the short answer is I think it will shrink to historic norms.
There's always been a risk premium of some size in energy prices and it expands and contracts with events. Personally I think it’s currently grossly exaggerated (as do people as diverse in opinion as the former CEO of Exxon and members of OPEC). It wasn’t all peace and light in the late 1990s when oil was at $16 a barrel and the world isn’t coming to an end (and we aren’t running out of energy) now at $75.
[/quote] Of course we aren't running out of oil. Just running out of cheap oil. Ladies and Gentlemen: The cure for high prices is..........HIGH PRICES.>>>>Revealer, on that thread, voiced support for the "peak oil" theory. In this thread he talked how he came to the conclusion in Dec of 2000 that we faced " a supply problem of unprecedented proportions " and how "these impending shortages change everything we have been taught about investing." and his belief that we're only in the beginning rounds of higher oil prices.
You might think it's unfair or a "manipulation of context" to link the two. I don't
Oh mike, you can have belief's in 2 separate theories and still not be wrong- if you then say that the short term supply issues COULD be the precursor to the longer term supply issue's theory conclusions, you MAY not be wrong-- but HE did not, YOU did- that's unfair, you should not connect the dots for someone, and then go on to rebut it with:
"...IMHO all the talk about “peak oil” affecting current prices is just talk..."
that's just wrong.
[quote=Revealer][quote=mikebutler222][quote=Revealer][quote=mikebutler222]
[quote=Revealer]He's right. (If not a little "fringy").....convinced me that the world was up against a supply problem of unprecedented proportions. "All things energy" include, oil, nat.gas, coal, drilling, transportation of same but only in North America. These impending shortages change everything we have been taught about investing.[/quote]
Well, there are plenty of folks, it would seem, who are convinced that there's an "energy shortage" (ignoring the massive US coal reserves, increasing abilities to draw oil in places we couldn’t before, the recent demand destruction we saw at the last peak of gas prices and the tanking price of natural gas) and don’t think the current price of a barrel of oil has anything to do with a massive risk premium thanks to Chavez in Venezuela, Iran’s nuke stand-off with the world and the missile launches from the lunatic in North Korea.
Count me in the latter camp….
[/quote] Mike: Please don't take my quotes out of context. I would ask that the readers read my ENTIRE comment. As far as lots of reserves of alternative source..... You are right. What I want you to do is some research on the COST of extracting those reserves. Of course there is a geopolitical premium in the price of oil. Think that's gonna go away?[/quote]
Sorry, Revealer, but I don't see where your message was changed when I trimmed down the post to the specific point I wanted to address. But, others can read your original post in its entirety to make their own decision. <?:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />
I'm aware of the cost of extracting the reserves, and as you well know, it still doesn't justify the current price. IMHO all the talk about “peak oil” affecting current prices is just talk, and prices are only moving on a larger than usual risk premium. As to the risk premium and whether or not it will "go away", the short answer is I think it will shrink to historic norms.
There's always been a risk premium of some size in energy prices and it expands and contracts with events. Personally I think it’s currently grossly exaggerated (as do people as diverse in opinion as the former CEO of Exxon and members of OPEC). It wasn’t all peace and light in the late 1990s when oil was at $16 a barrel and the world isn’t coming to an end (and we aren’t running out of energy) now at $75.
[/quote] Of course we aren't running out of oil. Just running out of cheap oil. Ladies and Gentlemen: The cure for high prices is..........HIGH PRICES.[/quote]
I've spent a good bit of bandwidth talking to other people about what you believe. Let me remedy that now.
How much of today's prices are, in your opinion, due to this running out of cheap oil and how much (if any) of the price is a risk premium due to <?:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" />Nigeria, NK, Iran, etc? Do you see prices continuing to increase or is this speculative bubble?<?:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />
And seriously, have you really found that energy investments are a tough sell?