I sold everyone out at S&P 925

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Aug 4, 2009 10:38 am

I was hearing that this was a bear market rally and we were going to see pull back when the S&P hit 925 so I pulled everyone out of their equity investments. What do I do now ? What indicators should I be looking at ? What economic data should I analyze ?

Aug 4, 2009 10:57 am

Why would you take your cues from an index?



Besides, don't you "hire" professional money managers for your clients? Since obviously, they are too stupid to find these money managers on their own?

Aug 4, 2009 11:11 am

Ron, are you serious, or was that a joke?  The little emoticon at the end makes me think you're just yanking our chain.

If you are looking at technical indicators, most say BUY right now, so your actions contradict what you say you want to do (follow technical indicators).  You basically just followed rumors, as well as 50% of market "experts" out there (ther other 50% say we will have an extended rally).
 
Good luck.
Aug 4, 2009 11:13 am

I think he was joking.

Aug 4, 2009 11:23 am

I was joking. When the index first crossed 800 850 900 most talking heads were screaming "bear market rally." I didn't hear "buy right now" until it crossed 950 which is why these "experts" are usually late to the party as well.

Aug 4, 2009 1:57 pm

I thought that might be the case....


How much do you want to bet that everyone starts piling back in soon, then we have another step down?  There is just NO WAY the market is straight up from here.  We'll be at a PE10 of like 25 by year end if we keep going.

Aug 4, 2009 2:09 pm

Definitely. I just went to Walgreens and I believe it was the Newsweek cover that read " THE RECESSION IS OVER."  Crap like that, combined with this rally will get a bunch of people off the sidelines and another dip will take them all out.

Aug 4, 2009 2:10 pm
B24:

I thought that might be the case....


How much do you want to bet that everyone starts piling back in soon, then we have another step down?  There is just NO WAY the market is straight up from here.  We'll be at a PE10 of like 25 by year end if we keep going.

 
Irrational exuberance...
Aug 4, 2009 2:12 pm

The problem is, how far will it go up before the "correction"....1100 s&p...1200...we don't know.   Many technical analysts claimed we hit the bottom at 9,000 on the DOW and we proceeded to drop to 6500...That is why I advise as I do...the hard part is getting people to listen, although I think the recent markets will help that to happen more often in future bear markets!

Aug 4, 2009 2:15 pm
Hey Kool-Aid:

The problem is, how far will it go up before the "correction"....1100 s&p...1200...we don't know.   Many technical analysts claimed we hit the bottom at 9,000 on the DOW and we proceeded to drop to 6500...That is why I advise as I do...the hard part is getting people to listen, although I think the recent markets will help that to happen more often in future bear markets!

 
All great points.
Aug 4, 2009 6:22 pm

Yawn.  Did a review today.  Moderate client.  Up 19% this year even though I was primarily in bonds until the 3rd week of July.  Up 8% since 1/1/08 because I was primarily in bonds until the 3rd week of July.  Yawn.

Aug 4, 2009 8:18 pm

Yawn.  We don't care.  Fart.

Aug 4, 2009 9:05 pm
B24:

Yawn.  We don't care.  Fart.



 
 
My client does.  Let's see, Ron Ron stayed in at S&P 1500, got out at 925.  I would say you should start doing exactly the opposite of whatever caused you to do this (and yes I realize Ron Ron is taking a not so subtle shot at technicians and is not being serious).
Aug 4, 2009 9:12 pm

Let me understand this. You are telling B24 to do the opposite of buying at 1500 and selling at 925. So your technical expertise says buy at 925 and sell at 1500 ? That is great stuff. Compelling and rich.

Aug 4, 2009 9:58 pm
Ron 14:

Let me understand this. You are telling B24 to do the opposite of buying at 1500 and selling at 925. So your technical expertise says buy at 925 and sell at 1500 ? That is great stuff. Compelling and rich.


 
 
What grade did you reach in school?  3rd?  You have a serious reading comprehension issue.  Here is what is funny to me.  If you did get out at 925, you've missed an 8+% move.  You on the other hand went from 1500 down to 666 back to 1000.  I would rather miss an 8% move than catch a -33% move, but that's just me.  But keep your head up, you only need another 50% move to break even!
Aug 4, 2009 11:18 pm

You are an absolute moron. Both of my comments were sarcastic. The one about getting out at 925 and the one about your compelling advice to sell high and buy low. Everytime I am sarcastic you think I am being serious because you can't follow the thread. You were obviously born in another country because you can't follow simple American conversation.

Aug 5, 2009 8:53 am
Ron 14:

You are an absolute moron. Both of my comments were sarcastic. The one about getting out at 925 and the one about your compelling advice to sell high and buy low. Everytime I am sarcastic you think I am being serious because you can't follow the thread. You were obviously born in another country because you can't follow simple American conversation.


 
 
Let's see, here is what I wrote ....
 
My client does.  Let's see, Ron Ron stayed in at S&P 1500, got out at 925.  I would say you should start doing exactly the opposite of whatever caused you to do this (and yes I realize Ron Ron is taking a not so subtle shot at technicians and is not being serious).
 
Your reading comprehension is poor for two reasons.  1) You thought I was telling B24 what to do when I clearly  typed Ron Ron.  2) I stated clearly I realized you were not being serious.
Aug 5, 2009 9:18 am

I guess my Fart comment really stirred things up...

Aug 5, 2009 9:29 am
B24:

I guess my Fart comment really stirred things up...





Fart's usually do.



In Jeb's defense, I believe he was responding to HKA's comment about "that's why I invest the way I do". He was explaining how he manages client portfolios as opposed to, "Hey man, let's buy this mutual fund... we follow the gray-hair/no-hair rule".

Aug 5, 2009 9:03 pm
Moraen:
B24:

I guess my Fart comment really stirred things up...



Fart's usually do.

In Jeb's defense, I believe he was responding to HKA's comment about "that's why I invest the way I do". He was explaining how he manages client portfolios as opposed to, "Hey man, let's buy this mutual fund... we follow the gray-hair/no-hair rule".



 
 
No it was a response to Ron Ron and his little buy and hold ETF portfolio he thinks is so great, yet is the generic ETF portfolio available and every firm for piss ant clients.