Here It Comes

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Sep 16, 2007 5:10 pm

Is a recession coming? The author of a NYT article discusses two indicators that have never been wrong in predicting oncoming recessions, when the indicators were in tandem, as they are now.


http://www.nytimes.com/2007/09/15/business/15chart.html?_r=1 &ref=business&oref=slogin


Sep 16, 2007 7:50 pm

the new york times is the last place i go to get my financial news.

Sep 16, 2007 8:00 pm

doberman,
  I hope you have the courage of your conviction. You should be heavily long OEX Puts and heavily long gold. If you are not in these positions, then I write you off as a blowhard.

Sep 16, 2007 9:06 pm
doberman:

Is a recession coming? The author of a NYT article discusses two indicators that have never been wrong in predicting oncoming recessions, when the indicators were in tandem, as they are now.


http://www.nytimes.com/2007/09/15/business/15chart.html?_r=1 &ref=business&oref=slogin




i think forbes just had an article arguing how next year's biggest concern is more inflation, than recession. sad stuff, im graduating next year too.

Sep 17, 2007 2:42 am

Real estate market crash + recession.  No big deal though, happens every few years here if anybody bothers to pay attention. 


And for those of you who are in denial, and somehow believe our cyclical economy stopped being cyclical because it didn't want to inconvenience you; it's smooth sailing, no problems, go back to sleep.


Sep 17, 2007 8:24 pm
YHWY:

doberman,
  I hope you have the courage of your conviction. You should be heavily long OEX Puts and heavily long gold. If you are not in these positions, then I write you off as a blowhard.


If you go back a couple of years to my first group of posts, you'd find that I advocated the use of very conservative investments, in the face of a rising market at the time. (The ports of my clients reflect this belief.) You'd also find that the response to my posts were less than enthusiastic, for the most part.


(As a side note: I never put any of my clients in internet stocks during the '90's.)


I don't do options, but I am into gold as well as other conservative investments.


Bottom line: I do what makes sense to me. If it's not rational, I don't do it.


Don't chase rainbows or you'll trip and fall into arbitration.

Sep 17, 2007 8:33 pm

I hope your long gold via the ishares or a similar product?  Have had a couple doom and gloom clients call me up lately asking what the best way is to buy gold bars!!!

I asked them if they take gold bars at the grocery store.

Sep 17, 2007 8:56 pm

Before you use a gold ETF or any other similar type of "defensive" equity, be sure to read the prospectus carefully. Many of these types of investments use derivatives as the basis of their value vs. the real thing. And I'm old fashioned, I prefer the real thing.


Derivatives are simply a promise to fulfill an obligation. Could that derivative be based on another derivative by someone else? I worry about the party that made the promise to the party that made the promise to the party that made the promise to the party that made the promise to the company ETF I'm considering recommending, that might go belly-up; thus, causing a domino effect.


And before someone tells me that they're rated AAA for safety, need I bring-up AAA-rated (subprime) CDO's?


My mantra: Keep it simple.


It's fun when a prospect brings in their statement full of complicated cr*p investments and I ask them how they work, the basis for their value, etc. Not being able to answer, their eyes get big, their jaw drops, and they sign the acat.

Sep 17, 2007 9:00 pm

If you go back a couple of years to my first group of posts, you'd
find that I advocated the use of very conservative investments, in
the face of a rising market at the time. (The ports of my clients
reflect this belief.) You'd also find that the response to my posts
were less than enthusiastic, for the most part.

 No thanks, my time's too valuable for that.




I don't do options,  Then you're missing a HUGE opportunity, given your strong belief in impending recession. Options allow you to leverage your investment buck like nothing else. Maybe you should invest in some "knowledge equity" for your business.

but I am into gold as well as other conservative investments. That's a great hedge statement. "Conservative investments" can mean whatever you what it to mean. If you're certain of recession, there are few that meet your intended definition. Name them.


Bottom line: I do what makes sense to me. If it's not rational, I don't do it. No, bottom line is you started a thread solely to take the position that you believe that a recession is imminent. Now you're hedging like crazy, implying that you don't have the courage of your conviction.


Don't chase rainbows or you'll trip and fall into arbitration. This is the statement of an idiot. You're scared to death of risk and not knowing how to manage it, so you're default reaction is to pretend you're avoiding it.

Sep 18, 2007 8:04 am

YHWY,


What I recommend to clients and what I don't is based on 15 years in this business. I've seen investment fads come and go, as well as, inexperienced brokers beat their chests about the latest and greatest. They're gone and I'm still here. Do you see a pattern here?


Also, if you study the demographics and preferences for the affluent, my practice is perfectly positioned to service this group; i.e., they want plain vanilla


Furthermore, I would suggest that you have personal problems that are causing you to lash-out on these posts. For that reason, I'll ignore your comments now and in the future. 


Get some help or at least, for your clients' sake, get out of the business before you hurt someone.

Sep 18, 2007 10:49 am
doberman:

Also, if you study the demographics and preferences for the affluent, my practice is perfectly positioned to service this group; i.e., they want plain vanilla



That's funny, my HNW people aren't interested in plain vanilla at all. BTW, I think you're really missing the boat by not using options, at least in their most conservative mode.

Sep 18, 2007 5:36 pm
mikebutler222:
doberman:

Also, if you study the demographics and preferences for the affluent, my practice is perfectly positioned to service this group; i.e., they want plain vanilla



That's funny, my HNW people aren't interested in plain vanilla at all. BTW, I think you're really missing the boat by not using options, at least in their most conservative mode.



Of course, there is a conservative way to employ options in a portfolio. However, my clients don't have a need for it.


Mike, I assume you're in a major metro area, so your type of affluent is probably different from mine (SW Georgia). My clients are mostly rural, old farm money. They are very conservative but very loyal. I've done a decent job of warning them to be very wary of the latest Wall Street concoction of the day. Internet stocks, LTCM, & subprimes have simply reinforced this message.

Sep 19, 2007 1:17 pm

check out RYMFX great partner of GOLD (I love GLD!)

Sep 19, 2007 3:06 pm
jackbauer:

NEW FORUM WWW.NETWORKEDADVISORS.COM
Certified Networked Advisor (CNA)



I thought a CNA was a Certified Nursing Assistant

Sep 20, 2007 12:13 am

I think it's a forum exclusively for homosexuals.  icecream just joined there so that makes sense. 

Sep 20, 2007 2:14 am

There was fella staggering out of a competing cave, because the chief had just whacked off his unit. His name was STFU, and he felt so bad about his manhood, he came and slurred a whole group of people who still have their unit (or never did, if they were womenfolk)


Once everybody knew the real story, they felt sorry for STFU and wrapped blankets around him. He still got put on his knees and got whacked with Granola's two by four, in fact the particular folks who felt slurred whacked the living crap out of STFU, but then everyone was nice to him, 'cause they know he had lost his manhood and was just projecting his feelings onto an entire group of people who would otherwise be kind to him anyway.

Sep 20, 2007 8:44 am

i recently bought my desretionary accouts SDS (pro shares ultra short s&p and  SRS pro shars ultra short real estate(reits and homebuilders) this way ou can play the downside with double leverage and no time premium that you have to pay with options. of course you have to put up more money than options to do it. i also did it myself


my pitch was, if the market keeps going up, the other 60-90%(depending on their allocation) of the portfolio will work. i believe in the market long term or i would not be doing this for a living. this 10% position is here to hedge us, but also may be a short term trade because i do not think we are out this problem yet.



Sep 20, 2007 10:08 am

Was that some sort of attempt at cutting me down?  That may work with your special olympic teammates, but not with me.  Go back to your forum, you have nothing to contribute here, when it gets hot you melt and just make a mess.



icecream:

There was fella staggering out of a competing cave, because the chief had just whacked off his unit. His name was STFU, and he felt so bad about his manhood, he came and slurred a whole group of people who still have their unit (or never did, if they were womenfolk)


Once everybody knew the real story, they felt sorry for STFU and wrapped blankets around him. He still got put on his knees and got whacked with Granola's two by four, in fact the particular folks who felt slurred whacked the living crap out of STFU, but then everyone was nice to him, 'cause they know he had lost his manhood and was just projecting his feelings onto an entire group of people who would otherwise be kind to him anyway.

Sep 20, 2007 10:35 am

That may work with your special olympic teammates, but not with me.


It's okay, STFU, we know what they did to you and we'll still be nice. You might have more fun if you stop the name calling. Some of us actually do know real retarded people and believe it or not, some of us have loved ones in are families who are gay, if you can believe that, and we love them too, so how about cooling it with the slurs.

Sep 20, 2007 10:43 am

I know real retarded people, you.  Go play in traffic.