Ford

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May 9, 2009 11:38 pm

Anyone who's anyone (even me!) knows that Ford has seen a major bounce back...

Now that it's trading at $6.24 (http://www.google.com/finance?q=F), what are your predictions?

I think it will plateau, not seeing much in either direction as it sllllooooowwwwwwllly marches back up to the top.

Their $550 million investment into small cars, while ultimately a good one, will take a long time to pay off. The markup on sedans is minimal (thus why everyone was so eager to build bigger, more expensive cars), and with the unions refusing to budge, rolling off small and low cost cars will make a slash in the earnings compared to what the $60k+ Lincoln Navigators brought in...

Other thoughts?

May 10, 2009 12:05 am

Darn, oh well.

So it's mostly just complaining about clients, and talking about what's going on at firms?

May 10, 2009 12:21 am
iceco1d:
For those clients that purchased it in a taxable account, we went into the trade assuming that we would hold it for at least a year to avoid short term capital gains taxes.
 
Admittedly, I was surprised at how quickly F moved from $2 to over $5 and even $6.
 
Ice,
 
I'm sure you have this covered, but don't let taxes stand in the way of a gain.  Don't be afraid to pull the trigger and sell now (or within the year) to pay an extra 10-15% in taxes.  It's better than taking a tax loss if things don't work. 
May 10, 2009 3:57 am

Cool guys! More helpful.

I've considered getting into options, but I think individual stocks are a good stepping stone into the grand quarry (pun intended) of the financial world.

Taking things slow...

May 10, 2009 7:03 am

Why not look at some of the debt? It should continue to recover as well and at least you get paid for waiting.



May 10, 2009 12:12 pm
iceco1d:

I.T.,

 
Just curious, but are you looking to learn how to properly build a long-term portfolio using different instruments, as in, the "right way?"
 
Or are you looking to learn about different financial instruments you can do the ole' DIY stock-picking, gold buying, options speculating, etc.
 
Serious question.



Both, really. But I think in the end, learning how to properly build a long-term portfolio would be a GREAT thing to know.

The other financial instruments aren't really a "skill" I think. Some people have a sixth sense for day trading, stock picking, etc. Others don't. Somtimes, others earn it!

Regardless, the real marketable skill and what interests me is the "right way" like you suggested.

May 10, 2009 12:50 pm

If I was going to make a trade with "non serious, Jim Cramer, fun money" I would ignore Ford here and buy GM or just sell some puts on GM.

May 10, 2009 12:58 pm

Cramer money isn't fun money...

Hate Cramer, Suze, etc. All the "financial geniuses" that act like celebrities make me sick!

You really think GM will come back? Ford has had a plan all along - talks of GM bankruptcy look real - giving Ford a huge advantage...

May 10, 2009 1:18 pm

I hate Cramer and Suze as well. What I mean is money you can afford to gamble with. As a short term trade I like buying GM at a $1.6. If Ford has had a plan it has been a bad one. Both are in trouble and nobody in that industry has any type of advantage. You say "talks of GM bankruptcy look real." Exactly, always take the opposite side of the rumors because only idiots react to recent news.

May 11, 2009 7:13 am

The synthetic bonds are easy to get in and out of and yield around 18%.