ETF guided account timing

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Nov 5, 2009 4:13 pm

Has anyone found a ETF  timing service or  that has performed well over the last 3-5 years, that they would recommend.

I have some accounts that have missed this big move and have made almost nothing this year and I feel like I need to get more active.

I am not comfortable with simply a 60/40 allocation here.

Any thoughts?


Nov 5, 2009 4:21 pm

How could you have missed the big move?  Everything in Govies? 

 
Domestic Small Cap - up
Domestic Large Cap - up
Intl  - up
Emerging - way, way up
Intl Bonds - up last year and this year
High Yield - way, way up
Corp Quality Bonds - up
 
If you missed this year's big move, you must have made money last year.
Nov 5, 2009 11:45 pm

AGEman

My Firm offers their " best picks" every year 15 stocks.



Do you think it's viable to time amongst the picks ; like only buy the stocks > 50 day moving ave.

and sell when they fall below.



Anyway to expand on returns and avoid last years debackle.



I mostly buy stocks with puts and it's working ok, I have been looking
at some of the best etf managers, but I noticed they mostly went down
30% plus last year and my put protected stocks fell about 5%.



I'm just trying for a better approach.

Thanks!!!

Nov 6, 2009 8:06 am
dashover:

Has anyone found a ETF  timing service or  that has performed well over the last 3-5 years, that they would recommend.

I have some accounts that have missed this big move and have made almost nothing this year and I feel like I need to get more active.

I am not comfortable with simply a 60/40 allocation here.

Any thoughts?


 
I have been reading up on Methbane Farber, the Ivy Portfolio guy. His book is very interesting and offers some interesting strategies.
Nov 6, 2009 8:53 am
AGEMAN:

Check Dorsey Wright.   They have many ETF programs based on relative strength.  You can choose from domestic/international/currency/commodity programs.  They provide the research and you use it for your clients.

 
AGEMAN,
 
I am familiar with the Dorsey Wright strategy and the success it had in timing last year.  Do you have any longer term history that you can share about the DALI strategy?  To be honest I just can't buy into it, but am trying to be open minded.  Thanks for any information you can provide. 
Nov 6, 2009 9:14 am
henrybar:
dashover:

Has anyone found a ETF  timing service or  that has performed well over the last 3-5 years, that they would recommend.

I have some accounts that have missed this big move and have made almost nothing this year and I feel like I need to get more active.

I am not comfortable with simply a 60/40 allocation here.

Any thoughts?


 
I have been reading up on Methbane Farber, the Ivy Portfolio guy. His book is very interesting and offers some interesting strategies.
 
Read the IVY Portfolio Thread.  I forget which section it's in (maybe "General"?), but Jason Wenk provided some good insight on the Ivy Portfolio Strategy.  Also, Faber has a pretty good "Coffee Break" webinar on Registered Rep.  Go back to the main page and click on "Coffee Break".  You can hear the replay.  You may have already heard it, but others may be interested.  I like his stuff.  It's a decent strategy for downside protection, but, as he fully admits, it is not going to significantly outperform, as you will lose some upside on the way back up.