If I could tell you what the size of a firms dividend is going to be before the street knows, but apparently somebody does, how could you profit from it?If you can tell me a way to profit from that info I'll show you how I'm able to derive it. As I said somebody must know it or the anomaly it creates would not exist. I'm certain these people are using it to their advantage somehow. A little edge goes a long way. This by the way is created by a mathematical model I found by accident so there is NO funny business in gaining this info. THINK THINK THINK! Little things like this can go A VERY long way with your clients.
The only thing I can think of is that you'd have to buy the shares of the company in advance of the announcement of their quarterly dividend, which you say you can figure out. I would then guess that you could buy (or short if it is a dividend cut) the shares, grab the emotional and small response to the announcement, but then dump the shares before the ex-date like ice said. The folks that move the markets have got to be buying much bigger blocks than your (in general, not yours specifically) average person and sort of playing an arbitrage game of sorts. I suppose if you sunk $1 mil into a stock a couple of days before either an earnings announcement or a dividend announcement, you'd be able to make a quick profit and get out.I don't care for individual stocks, but this is the kind of thing that gets my brain working.
How about short-term, extremely out of the money calls or puts (in the case of a cut)?