Dow 13,000

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Nov 2, 2006 11:06 pm

This is for Newbie...



I say the DOW will reach 13,000 before april of 2007



Nov 3, 2006 12:28 am

Maybe 15000 by 2010 or 20000 by 2020

I just hope the temp in New England never drops, since oil will rise and feds will raise rates. Of course home sales will drop and it might get nasty.

Nov 3, 2006 9:07 am

Who will win the Super Bowl, oh wise one?  You were right on about the 12,000 mark, so what the hell.  Let's try another avenue.

Nov 3, 2006 9:37 am

[quote=AirForce]I just hope the temp in New England never drops, since oil will rise and feds will raise rates. QUOTE]


One thing to consider, a large increase in the price of oil will have a slowing effect on the economy, thus lessening the chance the Fed will hike rates.

Nov 3, 2006 9:39 am

Opps, I forgot to add the traditional economist's caveat, "all other things being equal".  <?:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />

Nov 3, 2006 7:39 pm

BrokerRecruit:


Who will win the Super Bowl, oh wise one?  You were right on about the 12,000 mark, so what the hell.  Let's try another avenue.


----------------------------------------


I'm channeling Vince Lombardi and he says: FALCONS.  


Next week, I'm channeling Jimmy Hoffa and he's gonna name names. Stay tuned.


The Swami

Nov 3, 2006 8:45 pm

Lowest unemployment rate... .4% increase in wages... The negative for the fed is the mortgage rate did not go up after 16 raises. Oh wait, it went up .5% when they raised the discount rate 4%. So this has led to a bit of stability in the mkt.



Today I talked to 5 Real Estate people in my network and they all agreed with me, but stated big cities rose more so their drop is acceptable. The problem is when you look at wages people in DC make 80k a year and elsewhere its like 30-40k. So the houses could be double the price, since the wages are double. Anyone agree.... Trickle down tumblenomics.

Nov 4, 2006 11:09 am
bankrep1:

This is for Newbie...

I say the DOW will reach 13,000 before april of 2007


Thats an interesting question.  This site should allow for a poll of a question like this...


Where will Dow be at 04/07?


A) at or above Dow 13,000 by 04/07


B) at or below Dow 11,000 by 04/07


C) basically unchanged, right around 12,000 by 04/07


I'd take B,  at or below 11,000.  I'm sure C would be a popular choice as well.

Nov 4, 2006 4:25 pm

[quote=AirForce]Lowest unemployment rate... .4% increase in wages...

The negative for the fed is the mortgage rate did not go up after 16

raises. Oh wait, it went up .5% when they raised the discount rate 4%. So

this has led to a bit of stability in the mkt. Today I talked to 5 Real Estate

people in my network and they all agreed with me, but stated big cities

rose more so their drop is acceptable. The problem is when you look at

wages people in DC make 80k a year and elsewhere its like 30-40k. So

the houses could be double the price, since the wages are double.

Anyone agree.... Trickle down tumblenomics.
[/quote]



Nope. I think based on your idea, maybe the houses could increase by

50% at most, because as income goes up so does the tax bracket. They

may be able to qualify for twice the price since most underwriting is

based on gross income, but to actually afford it relative to their

income...I'd say they'd have to earn mabye 150% or more to afford double

the house. I'm just winging it here a little, but that's my 2 cents.

Apr 25, 2007 6:38 pm

So sweet it is! I have to change my slogan...again

Apr 25, 2007 8:15 pm

What are you gloating about?!!  You're almost a month late!!!

Apr 25, 2007 8:23 pm

Late, you missed the rally

Aug 14, 2007 7:18 pm

LOL - got the Dow $13,000 just about right the first time. You forgot to tell us when it was going it next, tho!

Aug 14, 2007 7:44 pm

So, guys.....is it as much fun on the way down as it was on the way up?  

Aug 14, 2007 9:03 pm

So, guys.....is it as much fun on the way down as it was on the way up?  


Yup. Great for prospecting. I have turned the corner on several whales I have been calling on for 2+ years. I have set a cpuple appts, and have moved forward on a couple others.


Not saying they will all be signing ACAT's in the next month but my actions towards them in these past couple weeks have certainly made an impression... After that, its all a matter of time before I am giving my assistant acct opening docs to scan into the system....

Aug 14, 2007 10:32 pm
mikebutler222:

Opps, I forgot to add the traditional economist's caveat, "all other things being equal".  <?:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />




Ceteris paribus.  Woot, who's the academic now...

Aug 15, 2007 12:58 am
Dust Bunny:

So, guys.....is it as much fun on the way down as it was on the way up?  



It is if you employ risk management and encouraged clients to take some profits "off the top" and set them aside in light of increased market risk.

It is even MORE fun if you took a little "fun money" and bought puts on selected financial issues.

Or so I hear.....

Aug 19, 2007 12:39 pm

Dow 15,000