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Sep 17, 2008 1:52 pm

I'm calling the bottom.

Sep 17, 2008 2:20 pm

I wish it was.  I understand that when everyone is negative and there is blood in the street, that's when the markets turn around. 


But with the uncertainty about GS and MS still out there, what could be positive to turn this around?
 
The spike in the Libor rate surely isn't good, and that could cause home prices to continue down.  It's not until the home prices stabilize that some of these bad assets can be priced correctly.
 
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601213&sid=aJs41o1Rtuk&refer=home
Sep 17, 2008 2:34 pm

Ferris, I hope you're right... but I fear you are wrong.

Sep 17, 2008 2:36 pm

yeah we've probably seen the bottom for today.

When we open tomorrow we'll see another new bottom and yet another after tomorrow.
 
There is not yet enough pain & panick in the market...unfortunately DOW 10,000 is a real possibility in this horrible environment.
Sep 17, 2008 2:43 pm

I'm calling Friday afternoon or Monday after options expiry.

Sep 17, 2008 2:54 pm

Mr. jones ,i'm not smart enough to know what this market will do next. We've got guys we pay over a million dollars a year to, to that for us. And to tell you the truth, I'm pretty sure they aren't smart enough either. But one thing i do know. There is no reason for long term triple A rated municipal bonds to be trading at a 120% of the value of 30 year treasuries. That banging sound isn't the market hitting bottom, it's opportunity knocking. Let's buy some bonds and lock in these high yields. I'm seeing some Mckeesport PA...

 
Yeah, I know, i'm a broken record. Still, gotta go with what works.
Sep 17, 2008 3:03 pm
BondGuy:

Mr. jones ,i'm not smart enough to know what this market will do next. We've got guys we pay over a million dollars a year to, to that for us. And to tell you the truth, I'm pretty sure they aren't smart enough either. But one thing i do know. There is no reason for long term triple A rated municipal bonds to be trading at a 120% of the value of 30 year treasuries. That banging sound isn't the market hitting bottom, it's opportunity knocking. Let's buy some bonds and lock in these high yields. I'm seeing some Mckeesport PA...

 
Yeah, I know, i'm a broken record. Still, gotta go with what works.
 
Yeah, it's some of those guys we "pay over a million dollars a year" that got us into this credit mess.
Sep 17, 2008 3:27 pm
iceco1d:

I've been to McKeesport....

 
Was the traffic light green or red when you went?
Sep 17, 2008 4:59 pm

Another scary part is we haven't heard from GMAC, National City, Keycorp and how far are we from Chrysler going into reorganization. I can see my local Chrysler dealer and don't see a lot of movement....pain is what we need for sure.  A great client was in to discuss her Lehman bond...she said she was more worried about me than the bonds.  Made me feel good...

Sep 17, 2008 6:11 pm
bspears:

Another scary part is we haven't heard from GMAC, National City, Keycorp and how far are we from Chrysler going into reorganization. I can see my local Chrysler dealer and don't see a lot of movement....pain is what we need for sure.  A great client was in to discuss her Lehman bond...she said she was more worried about me than the bonds.  Made me feel good...

 
I have a historically nervous nellie that called todayabout 7am knowing I get to the office at 7:30 every day.  Interestingly enough, my assistant had a Dr.'s appt yesterday and I had a meeting out of the office in the afternoon so she forwarded the office phone to my cell.  Didn't say anything about her portfolio, just wanted to see I was doing throughout all this.  I think if you have the realtionship, you're fine.  Those that were with you in 00-02 are gonna do what you think they should.  Those that weren't, need to be called first.  I've been Indy from EDJ for 3 1/2 yers now but one thing my regional leader said to me (couldn't stand the sociopath otherwise) was: "It's not the ones that call you you have to worry about, it's the ones that don't"  and:  "the 2nd time someone calls you to get out, get 'em out.  The third call will be to another advisor"
 
 
Sep 17, 2008 7:49 pm
BondGuy:

Mr. jones ,i'm not smart enough to know what this market will do next. We've got guys we pay over a million dollars a year to, to that for us. And to tell you the truth, I'm pretty sure they aren't smart enough either. But one thing i do know. There is no reason for long term triple A rated municipal bonds to be trading at a 120% of the value of 30 year treasuries. That banging sound isn't the market hitting bottom, it's opportunity knocking. Let's buy some bonds and lock in these high yields. I'm seeing some Mckeesport PA...

 
Yeah, I know, i'm a broken record. Still, gotta go with what works.
 
Jones priced an underwriting today for Cape Fear (NC?)  I couldn't imagine calling anyone on it today.
Sep 17, 2008 8:11 pm

Me thinks ta jet back ta civil service
Wall Street iz dead

Sep 17, 2008 8:18 pm
GWB43:

Me thinks ta jet back ta civil service
Wall Street iz dead

 
Thats' what TIME Magazine said in 1987...I guess that's more beer for us
Sep 17, 2008 8:51 pm
Johnny Roast Beef:
GWB43:

Me thinks ta jet back ta civil service
Wall Street iz dead

 
Thats' what TIME Magazine said in 1987...I guess that's more beer for us
 
By the way, I'm not trying to say sit here at ground zero and say "think happy thoughts".  I am saying that, historically, you've been DEAD wrong every time for better than 100 years.
Sep 17, 2008 9:57 pm

Wow...lots of incoming calls today.  Back in February and March, I had to make the calls.  Today, no problem...they're calling me.  The good news is that most were more curious than panicked.  The bad news is that today's production was pretty weak...and I'm tired.

Sep 17, 2008 10:09 pm

When I see the VIX hit 45 I will call a bottom, got in the 36 range today, set a YTD high.

Sep 17, 2008 10:19 pm
Johnny Roast Beef:
bspears:

Another scary part is we haven't heard from GMAC, National City, Keycorp and how far are we from Chrysler going into reorganization. I can see my local Chrysler dealer and don't see a lot of movement....pain is what we need for sure.  A great client was in to discuss her Lehman bond...she said she was more worried about me than the bonds.  Made me feel good...

 
I have a historically nervous nellie that called todayabout 7am knowing I get to the office at 7:30 every day.  Interestingly enough, my assistant had a Dr.'s appt yesterday and I had a meeting out of the office in the afternoon so she forwarded the office phone to my cell.  Didn't say anything about her portfolio, just wanted to see I was doing throughout all this.  I think if you have the realtionship, you're fine.  Those that were with you in 00-02 are gonna do what you think they should.  Those that weren't, need to be called first.  I've been Indy from EDJ for 3 1/2 yers now but one thing my regional leader said to me (couldn't stand the sociopath otherwise) was: "It's not the ones that call you you have to worry about, it's the ones that don't"  and:  "the 2nd time someone calls you to get out, get 'em out.  The third call will be to another advisor"
 
 



You have someone there answering phones at 7 am? I am guessing west coast or central time lol

Sep 17, 2008 10:20 pm
BullBroker:

When I see the VIX hit 45 I will call a bottom, got in the 36 range today, set a YTD high.

 
+1, we have to stop agreeing BB, it will ruin our previous discussions.
Sep 17, 2008 10:26 pm
Primo:
BullBroker:

When I see the VIX hit 45 I will call a bottom, got in the 36 range today, set a YTD high.

 
+1, we have to stop agreeing BB, it will ruin our previous discussions.
 
Given the uncertainty of MS and what that will mean to GS, the spike of the Libor rate, huge redemptions taking place causing more and more selling, 45 on the VIX seems entirely possible.
 
Given that 10 points on the VIX was a result of at least a 10% drop in the market, that might imply at least another 10%+ drop from here, you think?  That would be very painful.
Sep 18, 2008 1:20 pm

the VIX almost hit 42 so far today.  Getting close to 45.