Any Current Market Sentiments?

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Sep 2, 2008 9:53 pm

I read this article over the weekend and found it kind of interesting in that everyone has an opinion and the same situation can be seen in many different ways:  http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/four-horsemen-market-why-you/story.aspx?guid=%7B7E15D43B%2D33E7%2D4179%2D87A5%2D06BCD94C6BF3%7D&dist=msr8



So, given what's going on in the market, are any of you doing anything different?  Moving money anywhere? 
 
Even though the market has come up from its lows, some of my accounts don't reflect it much as commodities and financials switched from best/worst and vice versa.
 
Accounts for soon-to-be-retirees scare me the most.  Some are down 5-10% from the highs last October or even YTD in some cases, which isn't terrible...but the outlook isn't great either.
 
 
 
On a side note, there is some traveling motivational speaker event that Colin Powell, Terry Bradshaw, and others are doing.  One of the wholesalers I use went to it and said that it was mentioned that the economy is causing/will cause enough people to delay retirement to possible have some sort of impact on social security in a good way.
 
Also, it was mentioned that 97% of some type of people, can't remember who, (maybe baby boomers) will only have social security as income by the time they die.
Sep 2, 2008 10:17 pm
snaggletooth:

I read this article over the weekend and found it kind of interesting in that everyone has an opinion and the same situation can be seen in many different ways:  http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/four-horsemen-market-why-you/story.aspx?guid=%7B7E15D43B%2D33E7%2D4179%2D87A5%2D06BCD94C6BF3%7D&dist=msr8



So, given what's going on in the market, are any of you doing anything different?  Moving money anywhere? 
 
Even though the market has come up from its lows, some of my accounts don't reflect it much as commodities and financials switched from best/worst and vice versa.
 
Accounts for soon-to-be-retirees scare me the most.  Some are down 5-10% from the highs last October or even YTD in some cases, which isn't terrible...but the outlook isn't great either.
 
 
 
On a side note, there is some traveling motivational speaker event that Colin Powell, Terry Bradshaw, and others are doing.  One of the wholesalers I use went to it and said that it was mentioned that the economy is causing/will cause enough people to delay retirement to possible have some sort of impact on social security in a good way.
 
Also, it was mentioned that 97% of some type of people, can't remember who, (maybe baby boomers) will only have social security as income by the time they die.
 
 
I would say the mean sentiment of investors and money managers is cautious.  Of course there are the far extreme's, our Chief Economist doesn't think the housing market is even half-way corrected and is still looking for consolidation in the Financial sector, his view is that the S&P will stay below 1400 for the next 12 months.  Then you have my client that watches CNBC all day long and wants to jump both feet into Commodities and hold no cash thinking that we have bottomed. 
 
I'm very new to the market so I try to lean on the cautious side, but by nature I am an optimist and see value and opportunity every where right now.   My average client is down a little over 5%, then I have a lot of CD and Muni-bond clients who wouldn't touch the stock market with my check book, and of course I have the guy who has been buying CVX, PBR, HES, RIG, MRO unsolicited of course, and is down well over 30%.
Sep 2, 2008 10:28 pm

Very troubling that oil was down $6 and the equity markets couldnt hold a gain. Maybe it had to do with Obama getting a bump in the polls. I've also been listening to lots of equity strategists and analysts talk about us being  maybe, half way thru the crisis in the financials. Europe is tanking, it feels like there is nowhere to hide (except CD;s T bills, and i guess select Corporates). American Express is offering 3 year notes yielding 6.05%, a yield which makes me scratch my head.

With that said, i cant help but feel that a year from now we will look back at money center bank pfds yielding 8% and wondering what we were thinking, not buying them. And sentiment is so bad, that its probably good.
Its a time to be real selective, and keep some cash, but there are values out there if you look.
I'd be curious to know if advisors on this board are getting calls from clients that go something like "i cant take it anymore, just sell me out" I havent gotten many, which is not a good sign. As bad as sentiment is, i dont see the panic that i think we need to wash it out.
I realize i'm just rambling, so i'll stop now.
Sep 2, 2008 11:17 pm

Snags - just read the article in the link. Now i;m scared!

Sep 2, 2008 11:41 pm

It's easy to be scared...I'm with the last guy in the article...

Sep 3, 2008 1:01 am
Indyone:

It's easy to be scared...I'm with the last guy in the article...

 
Thank god there's at least someone who is.