Another Leg Down?

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Nov 19, 2008 2:36 pm

This is just getting uglier and uglier.


I don't know how many clients can handle another leg down.  
 
Even with several years of cash in accounts, I don't feel good at all.
Nov 19, 2008 3:21 pm
iceco1d:

Aaaaaannnyyy time you're ready to take a serious look at another investment approach, you let me know Snags.    Offer is still on the table. 



I am.

Nov 19, 2008 3:21 pm
iceco1d:

Aaaaaannnyyy time you're ready to take a serious look at another investment approach, you let me know Snags.    Offer is still on the table. 

 
I know your approach.  I agree with the allocation parts.  The whole passive vs. active thing makes some sense for the right areas, but is there a difference between -42% and -44%?  Right now, not really.
 
The problem is with accounts that are already invested.  Going forward, I have changed the way I allocate new money.  But at this point, things are down so much so quickly, I am sort of at a loss.
 
I would also like to start implementing a strategy like Primo's. 
 
So, with your allocation, Primo's tactical strategy, and my bucket approach, I think I'd have a good fantasy financial team.  When's the draft?
Nov 19, 2008 3:28 pm

I doubt if many of us bulls feel all that good at the moment, but honestly, Snags...are you sure you're made for this business?  You sound like it's really taking a serious toll on your mental health, and I'm sincere in asking that question.



 
Many get into this business because investments are an interesting subject and the money can be pretty good when you get over the hump, but that's not enough to sustain you through a powerful bear market like the one we are experiencing.  If you don't have a passion for helping people and an iron gut to work through the low spots, tough markets can easily drive you out of the business.  Your clients sense your feelings of hopelessness and that's probably why many of them are expressing those feelings back at you.  There are no magic phrases that calm the seas and part the waters, but your clients should have a sense of comfort that you are diligently doing your best on their behalf and that you have some conviction that patience will eventually be rewarded.  If you don't have that, you shouldn't have money in the market.  If you do have that conviction, you need to better express it to your clients and give them some hope when times are tough.  It's OK to tell them that you don't know what tomorrow or the next six months will bring, but if you have no conviction that stocks make sense for the long-term portion of your client portfolios, then why do you have clients in the market?
 
The choice is pretty simple...either have conviction about the long-term prospects of the stock market and express that to clients with some confidence, or get your clients out of the market.
Nov 19, 2008 3:41 pm

the thing that bugs me at this point is that days like this tend to feed more panic selling...

Nov 19, 2008 3:54 pm

I love the LPL research team, in that they can be so upbeat about all this. 

Kleintop was just on bloomberg talking about the impending 'cash bubble'. 

I'm in the same boat as everyone else here, clients have already been made more defensive where appropriate, but yeah, days like today tend to set off mini-waves of panic, even if the client has already been prepared for this. 


Nov 19, 2008 3:59 pm
Indyone:

I doubt if many of us bulls feel all that good at the moment, but honestly, Snags...are you sure you're made for this business?  You sound like it's really taking a serious toll on your mental health, and I'm sincere in asking that question.



 
 
Thanks for the interest in my mental health.  To tell you the truth, it does take a toll because it's other people's money.  The nervous stomach in the morning has become a consistent thing as of late.
 
Outside of that, I exude confidence when talking to clients and prospects.  I firmly believe in the future of the market, and it shows.
 
I love helping people when they are willing to listen, and I hate the ones that don't, but I move on.
 
If it seems like I'm manic on this forum, it's probably because coming here to blow off steam helps me to stay more positive in the "real" world.
Nov 19, 2008 4:02 pm
gvf:

I love the LPL research team, in that they can be so upbeat about all this. 

Kleintop was just on bloomberg talking about the impending 'cash bubble'. 

I'm in the same boat as everyone else here, clients have already been made more defensive where appropriate, but yeah, days like today tend to set off mini-waves of panic, even if the client has already been prepared for this. 




Indeed.  It's rather difficult to maintain conviction and remain objective at times.

Nov 19, 2008 4:45 pm

If I get new money Im making a killing ... if cash is already invested, in for a penny in for a pound, hedge and grind out cash with options. Shorting against the box has saved my clients HUGE $$$$$. I'll bet it will be booooooooooooooooring in a vix envirenment under 20.

 
Count our blessings
Nov 19, 2008 5:02 pm

This is not meant to be a smart A$$ response, but did you really expect the market not to retreat ? We are in a global recession and financial crisis, sales are slowing in every industry. We are  experiencing  a cyclical bear market and any rally is a bear market rally, not the sign of a bull market. Mostly, for the interim, it appears we will trade in a 1500 point range on the dow for a while. "tis the season to be merry!"

Nov 19, 2008 6:05 pm

Snags, don't get bent out of shape over things that you can't control.

Nov 19, 2008 6:09 pm
Mike Damone:

Snags, don't get bent out of shape over things that you can't control.

 
Easier said than done, but I appreciate the comment.

I just bought 2500 leads records from a guy I've had a lot of success with, so I can control that.
Nov 19, 2008 6:55 pm

You mean records? I hate the way the guys that sell lists call them "leads" a name and a phone number does not a lead make. Just one of my funny little peeves. Now they have us using the same term. F-ing spin. Were the Clintons ever "LEADS" brokers?

Nov 19, 2008 6:59 pm
Gaddock:

You mean records? I hate the way the guys that sell lists call them "leads" a name and a phone number does not a lead make. Just one of my funny little peeves. Now they have us using the same term. F-ing spin. Were the Clintons ever "LEADS" brokers?

 
You're right, they are just records.  I had never thought of it that way.  I mean, it's not my fault they decided to build up some sort of net worth to get on some list so I could call them.  What were they thinking?
Nov 19, 2008 7:32 pm
gvf:

I love the LPL research team, in that they can be so upbeat about all this. 

Kleintop was just on bloomberg talking about the impending 'cash bubble'. 

I'm in the same boat as everyone else here, clients have already been made more defensive where appropriate, but yeah, days like today tend to set off mini-waves of panic, even if the client has already been prepared for this. 




Did you take a look at LPL's new alternative strategy allocations?  They're saying allocate 15% to alternative investments in a growth with income model.  That's a lot compared to a two years ago.  It's also an indication that they're original asset allocation may not have really captured the entire universe of assets out there.

Nov 19, 2008 7:36 pm
gregoron:


Did you take a look at LPL's new alternative strategy allocations?  They're saying allocate 15% to alternative investments in a growth with income model.  That's a lot compared to a two years ago.  It's also an indication that they're original asset allocation may not have really captured the entire universe of assets out there.

 
Do you think anyone's actually did, except Ice maybe? 
Nov 20, 2008 12:10 am

Snags, what if there was a way to promise everyone who works with you that they will have more money by working with you?

 
There is.  Get them to invest more.  If you get a young client to invest $500 a month instead of $250/month, they will have 100% more money in the future.  You can't control the market, but this is true regardless of what the market does.
Nov 20, 2008 12:27 am
anonymous:

Snags, what if there was a way to promise everyone who works with you that they will have more money by working with you?

 
There is.  Get them to invest more.  If you get a young client to invest $500 a month instead of $250/month, they will have 100% more money in the future.  You can't control the market, but this is true regardless of what the market does.
 
I know I seem a little over the top at times.  I have no worries about the market or economy except for my clients 55-65 that are retiring in the next couple of years.  I know it is a lot of worrying for a small subset of clients, but really, that's it.
 
Right or wrong, that's what I worry about because I care about a few of them like they are family.
Nov 20, 2008 12:49 am

Snags, it's good to care about them, but you can't take on their problems as your own.  Those clients of yours, they have a choice.  They can lower their standard of living or they can work longer.   If worrying about them will help them, go ahead and worry.  Otherwise, find a more productive use of your time. 


People aren't supposed to retire at 65.  How realistic for most people is it to stop working at 65 and then have enough money to live comfortably for the next 30 years?  Teach your clients to drink and smoke and then they can retire without worrying about outliving their money.
Nov 20, 2008 9:38 am

What is Ice's famous strategy? or Primo's? and what's with the buckets???