10 year Average Return of S&P

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Mar 19, 2009 2:32 pm

Does anyone know a good source that shows the average return of 10 year periods of the S&P?

I need to set someone straight with some facts.   Thanks.
Mar 19, 2009 2:41 pm

Are you looking for average, or actual rates of return?

  Not trying to be a smart-ass, but there is a big difference.
Mar 19, 2009 3:10 pm

10 year rolling averages

Mar 19, 2009 3:15 pm

I was looking for that recently also. Will you post after you find it?

Mar 19, 2009 3:18 pm

you know, I think wikipedia actually has a good list of actual returns going back to '88


edit: here we go
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%26P_500

Mar 19, 2009 3:28 pm

From a hypo from American Funds’ Advisor Website

  Start End Net Investments Cumulative dividend income Capital gains Shares held Annual return Total value 12/31/1927 12/31/1937 $10,000 $5,033 $0 947 -0.00% $9,996 12/31/1928 12/31/1938 $10,000 $3,502 $0 690 -0.93% $9,110 12/31/1929 12/31/1939 $10,000 $3,864 $0 794 -0.08% $9,922 12/31/1930 12/31/1940 $10,000 $5,258 $0 1,127 1.78% $11,925 12/31/1931 12/31/1941 $10,000 $9,797 $0 2,148 6.44% $18,662 12/31/1932 12/31/1942 $10,000 $11,423 $0 2,509 9.38% $24,512 12/31/1933 12/31/1943 $10,000 $7,990 $0 1,712 7.17% $19,980 12/31/1934 12/31/1944 $10,000 $8,788 $0 1,828 9.28% $24,280 12/31/1935 12/31/1945 $10,000 $6,439 $0 1,291 8.41% $22,418 12/31/1936 12/31/1946 $10,000 $5,100 $0 1,006 4.41% $15,398 12/31/1937 12/31/1947 $10,000 $8,441 $0 1,635 9.61% $25,022 12/31/1938 12/31/1948 $10,000 $7,256 $0 1,324 7.25% $20,128 12/31/1939 12/31/1949 $10,000 $8,370 $0 1,431 9.15% $23,992 12/31/1940 12/31/1950 $10,000 $11,090 $0 1,717 13.36% $35,035 12/31/1941 12/31/1951 $10,000 $14,574 $0 2,067 17.26% $49,127 12/31/1942 12/31/1952 $10,000 $14,013 $0 1,818 17.06% $48,301 12/31/1943 12/31/1953 $10,000 $12,781 $0 1,532 14.29% $38,016 12/31/1944 12/31/1954 $10,000 $12,227 $0 1,346 17.09% $48,446 12/31/1945 12/31/1955 $10,000 $10,242 $0 1,027 16.67% $46,716 12/31/1946 12/31/1956 $10,000 $12,666 $0 1,160 18.40% $54,136 12/31/1947 12/31/1957 $10,000 $13,451 $0 1,143 16.41% $45,702 12/31/1948 12/31/1958 $10,000 $14,100 $0 1,125 20.04% $62,132 + 12/31/1949 12/31/1959 $10,000 $12,979 $0 978 19.34% $58,573 12/31/1950 12/31/1960 $10,000 $10,636 $0 769 16.15% $44,694 12/31/1951 12/31/1961 $10,000 $9,274 $0 639 16.42% $45,741 12/31/1952 12/31/1962 $10,000 $8,490 $0 559 13.44% $35,287 12/31/1953 12/31/1963 $10,000 $9,315 $0 583 15.91% $43,759 12/31/1954 12/31/1964 $10,000 $6,658 $0 394 12.82% $33,408 12/31/1955 12/31/1965 $10,000 $5,536 $0 309 11.07% $28,561 * 12/31/1956 12/31/1966 $10,000 $5,676 $0 300 9.20% $24,110 12/31/1957 12/31/1967 $10,000 $6,921 $0 347 12.85% $33,493 12/31/1958 12/31/1968 $10,000 $5,273 $0 250 10.01% $25,957 12/31/1959 12/31/1969 $10,000 $5,125 $0 231 7.82% $21,228 12/31/1960 12/31/1970 $10,000 $5,504 $0 238 8.18% $21,959 12/31/1961 12/31/1971 $10,000 $4,644 $0 194 7.06% $19,777 12/31/1962 12/31/1972 $10,000 $5,433 $0 218 9.93% $25,778 12/31/1963 12/31/1973 $10,000 $4,735 $0 184 6.00% $17,908 12/31/1964 12/31/1974 $10,000 $4,353 $0 165 1.23% $11,306 12/31/1965 12/31/1975 $10,000 $4,132 $0 153 3.27% $13,796 12/31/1966 12/31/1976 $10,000 $4,946 $0 177 6.64% $19,012 12/31/1967 12/31/1977 $10,000 $4,374 $0 150 3.60% $14,240 12/31/1968 12/31/1978 $10,000 $4,348 $0 142 3.17% $13,664 12/31/1969 12/31/1979 $10,000 $5,312 $0 164 5.88% $17,701 12/31/1970 12/31/1980 $10,000 $5,773 $0 166 8.47% $22,555 12/31/1971 12/31/1981 $10,000 $5,741 $0 153 6.49% $18,761 12/31/1972 12/31/1982 $10,000 $5,470 $0 136 6.72% $19,164 12/31/1973 12/31/1983 $10,000 $7,228 $0 167 10.66% $27,530 12/31/1974 12/31/1984 $10,000 $11,065 $0 238 14.81% $39,787 12/31/1975 12/31/1985 $10,000 $9,061 $0 181 14.34% $38,193 12/31/1976 12/31/1986 $10,000 $8,170 $0 151 13.84% $36,571 12/31/1977 12/31/1987 $10,000 $9,775 $0 168 15.28% $41,458 12/31/1978 12/31/1988 $10,000 $10,220 $0 163 16.32% $45,345 12/31/1979 12/31/1989 $10,000 $9,654 $0 142 17.54% $50,324 12/31/1980 12/31/1990 $10,000 $8,168 $0 111 13.92% $36,813 12/31/1981 12/31/1991 $10,000 $9,517 $0 121 17.58% $50,490 12/31/1982 12/31/1992 $10,000 $8,607 $0 103 16.15% $44,700 12/31/1983 12/31/1993 $10,000 $7,669 $0 86 14.91% $40,141 12/31/1984 12/31/1994 $10,000 $7,857 $0 83 14.36% $38,268 12/31/1985 12/31/1995 $10,000 $6,482 $0 65 14.86% $39,955 12/31/1986 12/31/1996 $10,000 $5,950 $0 56 15.26% $41,396 12/31/1987 12/31/1997 $10,000 $6,132 $0 54 18.02% $52,448 12/31/1988 12/31/1998 $10,000 $5,673 $0 47 19.19% $57,854 12/31/1989 12/31/1999 $10,000 $4,603 $0 36 18.19% $53,198 12/31/1990 12/31/2000 $10,000 $5,003 $0 38 17.44% $49,907 12/31/1991 12/31/2001 $10,000 $4,008 $0 29 12.93% $33,727 12/31/1992 12/31/2002 $10,000 $3,887 $0 28 9.34% $24,418 12/31/1993 12/31/2003 $10,000 $3,708 $0 26 11.06% $28,547 12/31/1994 12/31/2004 $10,000 $3,874 $0 26 12.07% $31,241 12/31/1995 12/31/2005 $10,000 $3,016 $0 19 9.07% $23,830 12/31/1996 12/31/2006 $10,000 $2,644 $0 16 8.42% $22,441 12/31/1997 12/31/2007 $10,000 $2,156 $0 12 5.91% $17,752 12/31/1998 12/31/2008 $10,000 $1,816 $0 10 -1.38% $8,700 -
Mar 19, 2009 3:50 pm

Good stuff, thanks!

Mar 19, 2009 10:32 pm

[quote=snaggletooth]

Does anyone know a good source that shows the average return of 10 year periods of the S&P?

I need to set someone straight with some facts.   Thanks.[/quote]   What are you trying to set them straight on? 
Mar 20, 2009 10:17 am

Do those numbers starting in 1940 going through 1994 make anyone else but me think that the rest of my career could be nothing but roses? 

Mar 20, 2009 11:19 am

The best fertilizer is manure so I guess you could be right in thinking that way!

Mar 20, 2009 11:22 am

I have been told a time or two on this forum that I’m full of it. 

   
Mar 20, 2009 11:28 am

Didn’t mean you Spiff. 

  I'm saying the current market and all that is, is sh*t.  If the future market blooms into beautiful roses, we can look back and see that it was fertilized by all that has gone on in the recent times. 
Mar 20, 2009 11:40 am

Or, you just may not understand there is a (sometimes significant) difference between average and actual rates of return.

Mar 20, 2009 5:11 pm

What that HYPO proves is that it ALL depends on what generation you invested in.  If you invested in the 20’s/30’s/60’s-early70’s/late 90’s and beyond, then you are screwed.  If you invested during other eras, then you would be good.  So many people got sucked into the returns they saw from the secular bull from 73-99, that those numbers were the proxy for “always”, when in fact, they were just looking at the greatest secular bull market of the century (now, most people define the secular bull as being from 82-99, but it really started more like 1973).

  Let's hope 2010 = 1973 (I think it will be more like 2013 = 1973, but that's just MHO).
Mar 20, 2009 5:37 pm

So you think we are in for 5 years of crap until a move upwards begins ?

Mar 22, 2009 9:12 pm

Well, I personally think we are not going to be back to normal for 5 more years.  Too much stuff to work out.  Too much unemployment. Too many foreclosures.  Housing prices too depressed.  Not enough available credit in the market.  The corporate bond market has a LONG road back.  Too many people are going to buy up all these 3% Treasuries being printed.  Bottom line, there is NO catalyst for a recovery anytime soon.  Will the market move north?  Sure.  Will it get back to 14,000 in 5 years?  Unlikely. 

We are in the midst of a sideways secular bear, which started in 2000.  Most secular cycles take a LONG time to change course.   Remember, the last bull market was driven by credit.  Plain and simple.  Where is the money coming from to drive a new secular bull market?  It isn't.  It used to be that companies could do a simple IPO or bond placement and get all the funds they need for growth.  Who's issuing debt now?  Nobody.  Who's writing IPO's?  Nobody.  And who would underwrite them?  How many new homeowners have 20% to pt down on a 250K house? (that's a tiny 60's house in my region of the country)  $50K???  30 year olds don't have it.  Their parents?  Brokerage account down 45%, they are worried about their own retirement.   The only caveat would be that our ELECTED officials have changed the course of history with their legislation and proposed legislation.  Things like national health care, tax reform, and massive social spending programs could potentially change the outcome of this game.  And none of us have any idea what that will look like if they get everything they want.  Hang on tight, we just finished the first loop on the rickety old roller coaster.  Two more laps to go.   
Mar 22, 2009 9:29 pm

[quote=B24]Well, I personally think we are not going to be back to normal for 5 more years.  Too much stuff to work out.  Too much unemployment. Too many foreclosures.  Housing prices too depressed.  Not enough available credit in the market.  The corporate bond market has a LONG road back.  Too many people are going to buy up all these 3% Treasuries being printed.  Bottom line, there is NO catalyst for a recovery anytime soon.  Will the market move north?  Sure.  Will it get back to 14,000 in 5 years?  Unlikely. 

We are in the midst of a sideways secular bear, which started in 2000.  Most secular cycles take a LONG time to change course.   Remember, the last bull market was driven by credit.  Plain and simple.  Where is the money coming from to drive a new secular bull market?  It isn't.  It used to be that companies could do a simple IPO or bond placement and get all the funds they need for growth.  Who's issuing debt now?  Nobody.  Who's writing IPO's?  Nobody.  And who would underwrite them?  How many new homeowners have 20% to pt down on a 250K house? (that's a tiny 60's house in my region of the country)  $50K???  30 year olds don't have it.  Their parents?  Brokerage account down 45%, they are worried about their own retirement.   The only caveat would be that our ELECTED officials have changed the course of history with their legislation and proposed legislation.  Things like national health care, tax reform, and massive social spending programs could potentially change the outcome of this game.  And none of us have any idea what that will look like if they get everything they want.  Hang on tight, we just finished the first loop on the rickety old roller coaster.  Two more laps to go.   [/quote]

You should check your facts.  The reality is that there were numerous multi-billion investment grade bond issuance in the corporate market in January and February....Conoco and Cisco were two of the deals I recall off the top of my head.
Mar 23, 2009 9:31 am

I know.  When I say NOBODY is issuing debt, that is an exaggeration.  PFE, DUK, T, lots of energy/utility companies come to mind.  But the reality is, the volume is a mere trickle compared to what it used to be.  And that will persist for some time.  We used to have multiple new issues coming to market daily.  The majority of our bond inventory used to be new issues.  It is now 90-95% secondary market.