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So you feel the market level we’re at now is being driven by the small investor. Wouldn’t that mean we are at the point where small investors (like EZ) are capitulating?
We can sell reality, because we get it.
I like it. Highly qualified, highly paid, sales professionals. I love this job.I just took a guy under 40 half out today…he’s wrong long-term, but I’m sick of arguing with him…
Okay now back to you two superstars…do I think capitulation has happened, not at all, not even close. You keep singin the buy and hold all the way down. IF we hold the lows of 02, I will be suprised.
Indy …you did what you did " As per your clien’t instructions ". The legal addage " You are you own worst counsel ", to clarify HE decided despite your professional advice.
[quote=Indyone]I just took a guy under 40 half out today…he’s wrong long-term, but I’m sick of arguing with him…[/quote]
Might not be a bad move…I am open to the possibility that we trade down to 7500-8000 and stay there for extended period of time. (5+ years???) Ouch…I hope not, but given the world we live in and the state of our financial markets…a distinct possibility.
Why lose another 15% from here in short order? Sidelines, cash is not a bad place to be.
Ice…your nothin but a punk…been in this industry for 13 months…are you sure your not with Jones…
That's fine, Indy, but I hope you gave him a good kick in the butt on the way out, " Now is the time that stocks are returned to their rightful owners. " Seriously, I wonder how much a wooden barrel costs now, the kind you walk around with after you lose everything. See, the effects of inflation are everywhere, and clothes are cheaper now.
This is the funniest thread I have read in a while. Now is not the time to go to cash, that was many months ago. There is a relief rally coming in here. Wait for it. Then pull money. Of course, by that time most will think everything is ok again.
Panic definetely is the mood right now.
I have scared shitless clients/prospects asking me what my thoughts are. I retort "Got a plan and im stickin to it, keep my allocation among good quality stocks/bonds with some alt. asset classes (commodities, RE, etc) thrown in for good measure. I dont panic, I let the mad bear run into the tree and re-position myself" Bottom line is that yes whats happening now reeks of 1990/91 and to an extent, 73/74. However its not our job to play psychoanalyst, fortune teller, prostitute, etc. It is our job to position clients for good times and bad. Oh.......and I am loving Dick(!!) Fuld getting knocked out in the gym. http://consumerist.com/5060063/lehman-brothers-ceo-got-punched-in-the-face I wish that he would have been beaten into a coma with a barbell and shat upon. But ill take what I can getI think going to cash here is playing with fire and is the reason that individual investors trail the S&P 500 by about 600 bps long-term. This guy is so shell-shocked right now that we'll go back up 30% before he'll be interested in getting back in...and get the worst of both sides in the deal. If he were 60, I'd better understand, but hell, he's not even 40. I'm within $10K of all in on my stock allocation and I'm itching to put that part in. Nevertheless, arguing with a client at this stage of the game is just begging for arbitration if you're wrong, so he's half out per his wishes and not back in until he tells me he wants back in. I still remember clients telling me in the summer of 2002 that it would be years before the market recovers. Most expected another terrorist attack at any moment and had no interest in stocks. This feels alot like that except we've done more of a "V" than a "U". No one knows for sure where the end is, but I feel like we're damned close and I'm not willing to go all cash and miss the first 15-20% trying to decide if the rally is for real or not.[quote=Indyone]I just took a guy under 40 half out today…he’s wrong long-term, but I’m sick of arguing with him…[/quote]
Might not be a bad move…I am open to the possibility that we trade down to 7500-8000 and stay there for extended period of time. (5+ years???) Ouch…I hope not, but given the world we live in and the state of our financial markets…a distinct possibility.
Why lose another 15% from here in short order? Sidelines, cash is not a bad place to be.
Indyone you are exactly right except we have only done the \ so far not the / yet. We will. Those predicting the future always have us beat. We can’t prove a negative so they must be right. Iceco1d why are you wishing bspears back on us nice people at Jones? I’ve got nothin but love and respect for you. Contrary to popular forum opinion, there are nice, real, helpful, intelligent, professional people at Jones. sidebar (not at@ Ice). People have beef with the company then let it fly that is the point of the forum. Hitting families and people below the belt? IMHO nobody likes any of us now…we caused this (according to the tv we are all “fatcats”). Lets atleast not hate each other individually.
Ice, so if you're so bright, why work for someone else. If you have all this knowledge and contacts and production is so much fun...why work for the man? Why didn't you just test and become an RIA? Instead your sitting in some little tiny office, posting on this damn forum all day AND night, trying to make people think you're a somebody. You're a nobody...Last time I looked, my name was on the door...for all I know, you could be somebody's secretary.
Ask your clients if they had a rental property and collected rent every month and the rental property went down 20% - 30% but they still collected the rent would they sell it?
Then compare that to there mutual funds shares they own.I’m telling my clients to hold, to be patient, to stick to their plan, etc., etc.
But I'm not sure I believe it. This does feel different. (Sorry, I said it: It IS different). The worldwide banking system has broken down, probably a trillion dollars or more will be needed to recapitalize the system -- I don't see how we avoid a two-year recession, or more, which will cost another couple of trillion in lost growth and added debt. My prospects are discouraged, scared and pessimistic, not just about the markets, but about America in general. The ones that invest in stocks are down over the past 10 years. Ten years is a long time to stay the course. Reminds me of the saying -- a down market returns stocks to their rightful owners -- well, I suspect this crisis will return stocks to the professional investors for a long time.I would say this time it’s different because Asset Allocation hasn’t helped in this down turn. The traditional safehavens such as investment grade bonds and preferreds are tanking. Non-correlating asset classes such as commodities are getting crushed.
However, I do believe we will come out of this someday... I just don't know when.[quote=Mike Damone]I would say this time it’s different because Asset Allocation hasn’t helped in this down turn. The traditional safehavens such as investment grade bonds and preferreds are tanking. Non-correlating asset classes such as commodities are getting crushed.
However, I do believe we will come out of this someday... I just don't know when.[/quote] Yeah, it's always different for one reason or another, but I'd have to admit the same surprise that bonds have for the most part, tanked along with stocks this time. Kind of ruins the story of the balanced fund, doesn't it? I've told clients the same...we'll eventually recover, but I can't tell you when and at what level the recovery starts. I'm gonna fire my last stock bullet today...no more cash for the stock part of my portfolio...have mercy...[quote=Indyone][quote=Mike Damone]I would say this time it’s different because Asset Allocation hasn’t helped in this down turn. The traditional safehavens such as investment grade bonds and preferreds are tanking. Non-correlating asset classes such as commodities are getting crushed.
However, I do believe we will come out of this someday... I just don't know when.[/quote] Yeah, it's always different for one reason or another, but I'd have to admit the same surprise that bonds have for the most part, tanked along with stocks this time. Kind of ruins the story of the balanced fund, doesn't it? I've told clients the same...we'll eventually recover, but I can't tell you when and at what level the recovery starts. I'm gonna fire my last stock bullet today...no more cash for the stock part of my portfolio...have mercy...[/quote]Everything's out the window in this market. The speed and the magnitude was absurd. Nothing's working. It's like warfare, everyone's holding their ground and digging their trenches. No one's listening to reason. This includes banks, investment firms, clients and reps. Reminds me of the 1997 Economic Contagion that started in Asia. Thailand gets the flu and spreads it around the world. The US started it this time. It'll take some time for the dust to settle on this one.
Money or capital injection will not solve this problem - market sentiment, reason, and optimism will. It's also not a bad idea that some heads roll from this mess. I just heard Bush is now talking to the IMF - I hope it's not for a loan.