Dow 8000

or Register to post new content in the forum

68 RepliesJump to last post

 

Comments

  • Allowed HTML tags: <em> <strong> <blockquote> <br> <p>

Plain text

  • No HTML tags allowed.
  • Web page addresses and e-mail addresses turn into links automatically.
  • Lines and paragraphs break automatically.
Oct 7, 2008 7:25 pm

don't ride this thing down. we've been doing it since 14200.

Oct 7, 2008 7:44 pm

Why stop at 8000?

Oct 7, 2008 8:03 pm

We should all be ashamed of ourselves for riding it down. But most of all our research depts should be fired for not telling us to trim down equities.

Oct 7, 2008 9:03 pm

8000 is the next resistance level.


Then expect a LOT of buying.  As for the research depts., you cant really trust them (i.e. Tech stocks, ARS, etc.)  Im glad to do my own research and stick to the steak n potatoes approach, not the spam disguised as filet mignon.
 
Oct 7, 2008 9:21 pm

Could it be that we all, just like you, saw this coming?  Our selling to get out before 8000 is exactly what is going on?  Don't we have to sell to get out?  Doesn't selling cause the market to go down?  I know you guys are smart enough to realize that we can't stop the market (just like a school bus) and all get off.  Every professional advisor on this site knows fear and panic are understandable but they are not a very effective investment strategy.  Not insulting anyone just a reminder that we are not hired to travel time or predict the future.  We are hired because these times exist.  They must exist.  Without fear and uncertainty investment returns are zero (yes risk is what provides returns) and we are unnecessary and unemployed.  I can guarantee everyone here that, when we least expect it, the markets will change.  The real problem is that it can't be proven until after it goes up and then it is too late to help our clients.  If you have a plan for your clients do not let anything cause you to waiver.  There are always winners and losers.  We must make sure clients that get professional advice are the winners.

Oct 7, 2008 10:03 pm
ezmoney:

don't ride this thing down. we've been doing it since 14200.





You are a moron.

Oct 7, 2008 11:43 pm

Moron.

Oct 8, 2008 11:15 am

In our business, history doesn't tend to repeat itself, but it does seem to rhyme.  So, if we look at this time frame six years ago when the markets bottomed out the last time, what would our clients have missed had they jumped out at the bottom?


The lowest close was on 10/9/2002 and its intraday low was on 10/10/2002.  Here's what happened moving forward:
 
 
                                                                        DJIA                               S&P 500
10/9    Close                                                    7286.27                           776.76
10/10  Low                                                      7177.66                           768.67
10/10  Close (One Day Later)                          7533.95 (+3.4%)             803.92 (+3.5%)
10/17  Close (One Week Later)                       8275.04 (+13.6%)           879.20 (+13.2%)
11/03  Close (One Month Later)                      8537.13 (+17.2%)           910.10 (+17.2%)
01/10  Close (Three Months Later)                  8784.89 (+20.6%)           927.57 (+19.4%)
10/9    Close (One Year Later)                         9680.01 (+32.8%)           1038.73 (+33.7%)
 
How many of your clients who would have jumped out on 10/9 or 10/10 in 2002 would have been brave enough to jump back in a week, month, or even a full quarter later?  Which is more painful, missing the turnaround or experiencing the decline? 
 
I'll quote Alan Skrainka - "Panic is not a good investment strategy"
Oct 8, 2008 11:33 am

Experiencing the decline is always worse than missing the turnaround. Individual investors are scared, advisors are scared, institutions are scared. We are in the midst of a global crisis never seen before so no one knows what is going to happen, but to pretend things are going to get better because they have in the past does not make it an appropriate strategy either. Clients dont care what they make, its what they keep. 

Oct 8, 2008 11:53 am

Lets look outside our office windows....Banks are frozen (some out of business), Insurance co are holding their breaths.  THe US Gov't just put a tillion of new debt on our backs(IE higher taxes).  Unemployment is about to spike in a very SCARY fashion.  You think we have panic ...we are about to have pain and then grief....Bush can't handover the keys fast enough...

Oct 8, 2008 12:25 pm

Is there a reason the market has tanked after the bailout, after the rate cut, Obama leading in the polls? Maybe there's a rainbow around the corner...maybe the next thing the govt will come up with ....lets wipe out all consumer debt and start over...kinda like a mulligan...The JOE SIXPACK out there needs to get his shit together and get his ass off the couch, payoff his debt and start living a life of truth not falicy.

Oct 8, 2008 12:35 pm

Ooopss...disregard my last two posts....I just read some great info and will put all my clients..full bore...into the markets today..

 
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ahQ63GX1FSMs&refer=home
Oct 8, 2008 12:37 pm

Well put spears. Maybe Joe six pack should sell hock his wife's gold and buy GE - I notice it is in green territory at the moment. At a P/E of half the historical market average, and a yield of almost six percent, even Joe can make money. Oh, I know, earnings may be slowing and the price may go lower, but watching and waiting is boring.

Oct 8, 2008 12:43 pm

Bspears , I like the logic with your proposal on consumer debt. Correct , somewhat like a Mulligan. Did you take your proposal/theory from a similar program? Sounds very much like Banks , Investment Bankers and Insurance Companies. Would it be something like :

1) Take on risks that are questionable , 2) Greed - make sure the executives compensation is excessive , 3) Drive your firm in to bankruptcy and 4) Run , don't walk to the Government to either shore up your company or bail out your company at the taxpayers expense.
Why not , let's go for the Gold
Oct 8, 2008 1:34 pm

None taken but yes I am. Do the math, taking a 40% loss takes a hell of a long time to get back to just even.   

Oct 8, 2008 1:47 pm

I don't know, if it goes down 40%, I guess it has to go back up about 66%. That almost seems evil.  Down from when, and where?

 
I'm meeting with a retired client whose portfolio is up 3.91% AARtn since 1/94, and the S&P is up .53 and the Lehman (oh.) Aggregate is up 4.54%. We are in the business of hedging risk, growing and protecting money.
 
What do you think will happen next? Even, hell, I want to kill something. Time to get our "average" returns. Even if we live in a brave new world, don't lose perspective for your clients.
Oct 8, 2008 1:56 pm

Hedge fund redemption deadline looming...will that push the market even lower. 

Oct 8, 2008 2:21 pm

Spears, you don't believe in efficient market theory, do you?

Oct 8, 2008 2:42 pm

I highly doubt our clients could handle ALL the information surrounding this crisis.  So no I definately don't believe in it.

Oct 8, 2008 2:50 pm
Some clown at Barron's wrote a column on the VIX and thinking we haven't seen a bottom and then finishes with this statement:
 
However, being even one day off in timing during such times can spell disaster to a portfolio whether you are a professional trader or casual investor. For that reason, sitting on the sidelines is the best advice I can give. After the market finally finds its bottom, missing the first few weeks of the new rally won't really matter in the long run.