New Suitors for GS and MS?
Wells Fargo?
State Street? USB? BERK? I wonder if Warren Buffet is eyeing any of the distressed firms. He must be licking his chops right now. This is what he waits for.This is just crazy.
Can you imagine if someone would have said, "Within the next 10 months, by October, Bear Stearns would be gone, Lehman Brothers would be bankrupt, AIG would be bailed out by the government, Merrill Lynch would be bought out by Bank of America, and Fannie and Freddie would be taken over by the government"? You would have had anyone who said this committed. If GS and MS go, which is possible, it would be absolutely unbelievable.It seems to me that GS and MS will almost be forced into merginf purley for competitive reasons. Merrill, Wachovia, SB, they will all have much higher asset bases and much lower capital hurdles going forward. GS and MS will not be able to compete with that.
Remember when a bank was a place to put deposits and write checks, and you bought stocks from a brokerage firm and insurance from an insurance company? Now, my god, you can get investments, insurance, checking accounts, deposits, CD's, credit cards, mortgages, I-banking, mutual fund management, investment research, you name it, from a bank (and in some cases now the U.S. governement ). It's funny, but the rules actually HAVE changed. We have learned that there is much out there in the investment world that we no longer understand, nor can we comunicate accurately to clients (are you kidding, this is a LEHMAN bond! They've been around forever. They're as safe as safe can be! C'Mon, AIG insurance is huge! Your policy is safe with them!) Despite what ANYONE says, if the "best and brightest" on Wall Street could get us into the mess, it is really tough for any of us to have predicted what has happened.As you said, it also imposes a challenge to our credibility as advisors. This will change how we do business moving forward as clients will always be dangling all of this over our heads.
dont forget citigroup. They have one foot out of the door also. As for a morgan /goldman merger, it wouldnt work. If anyone comes in to make a deal it would be an overseas bank. There isnt anyone left with the capital to pull off a buyout of the magnitude to take over MS or GS unless it is a private equity firm which i doubt would happen. Just my 2 cents worth.
[quote=B24]
Remember when a bank was a place to put deposits and write checks, and you bought stocks from a brokerage firm and insurance from an insurance company? [/quote] Yes, it was 1998. Before the repeal of the Glass Steagall act. Sandy Weill of Travellers/SmithBarney got the ball rolling (lobbied intensively), Alan Greenspan thought it sounded like a wonderful idea, Rob Rubin (Scty of Treasury) agreed, a republican congress wrote a "better" new law, and a democratic president signed off on it. Then Rubin ran off to take on a much better salaried position at the newly named "CitiGroup". ...And now here we are 10 years later. Apparently deregulation doesn't always work out. http://www.investopedia.com/articles/03/071603.asp http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/wallstreet/weill/demise.html http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/would-glass-steagall-save-day-credit/story.aspx?guid=%7B3AA33D85-AD38-41B4-B300-033235B5734A%7D http://thestrangedeathofliberalamerica.com/bill-clinton-glass-steagall-and-the-current-financial-and-mortgage-crisis-part-two-of-an-indepth-investigative-report.htmlBT-
No question about it. Glass Steagall act enable banks and insurance companies to act as recklessley as brokerage firms. I say shame on all of them. I can't believe I am saying this, separate them as quickly as possible.I talked with a buddy at Morgan today and he was bitchin about all teh negative press his company was getting. When we discussed possible mergers…he said…well at least I’ll get a big retention bonus…
Wachovia is talking to Morgan about a merger/buyout…here we go again.
You know I thought Danny Ludeman (President of Wachovia Securities) was nuts…he has been repeating over and over like a broken record for the last year how there will be no independent broker dealers and Investment Banks Left in the next few years…Wachovia’s merger w/ AGE was the start, and there would be Wachovia and 1-2 big NY Bank/Brokerages…looks like we may be there in a metter of days not years…wow
As a former AGE guy I have to wonder just what would have happened if Tad Edwards had won the internal battle for the firm I loved and Bagby went away…The board who approved Mr. Bagby, at the very least, are throwing up blood right now.
If the firm could have stayed independent for just 6 more months, they would have recruited at least 1000 brokers from the other firms. I heard Danny say that at a road show and I had no idea of the lunacy that would follow. But not even Danny Boy could know just what kind of a mess some of the smartest people in the world have gotten us into. Just because he was right, does not make him smart. I knew AG Edwards, AG Edwards took care of my clients and myself-Wachovia you are no AG Edwards.Great to see all the regular dozen or so wirehouse guys still here after all this time and water under the bridge (or over-topping, soon to be breached levee, as the case may be)! Still posting a dozen times a day while producing $800k/yr. Impressive! Sorry to hear that literally all your firms will be either bankrupt or absorbed by banks before this autumn is out. God, I love LPL!!! Making money hand over fist by harvesting your former clients. Here’s to all you big talking wirehouse pikers out there! I love you, I really, really do!
by the way, who exactly would be buying who Morgan or Wachovia?
They both are in trouble, so who would own who? I have googled but can not find out who is buying who??[quote=rocky]by the way, who exactly would be buying who Morgan or Wachovia?
They both are in trouble, so who would own who? I have googled but can not find out who is buying who??[/quote]Well now it looks like a Chinese Bank will be buying Morgan...but the call was made by WB to MS to see about buying MS.
[quote=YHWY]Great to see all the regular dozen or so wirehouse guys still here after all this time and water under the bridge (or over-topping, soon to be breached levee, as the case may be)! Still posting a dozen times a day while producing $800k/yr. Impressive! Sorry to hear that literally all your firms will be either bankrupt or absorbed by banks before this autumn is out. God, I love LPL!!! Making money hand over fist by harvesting your former clients. Here’s to all you big talking wirehouse pikers out there! I love you, I really, really do!
[/quote]
And you think LPL will be independant forever? Not likely.
MS- In talks with WB and a Chinese Bank…in case… the equity keeps tanking.
CNBC saying tonight that John Mack is kicking and screaming to everyone who will listen about the naked short selling driving the stock down.
I thought that OSTK was nuts when he was complaining about what it was doing to his stock. THURS will be interesting.
Lets hope that MS & GS (and C Smith Barney) can weather this well.
Rugby
Don't forget about UBS. Interesting to see what happens with them.[quote=nestegg]
[quote=YHWY]Great to see all the regular dozen or so wirehouse guys still here after all this time and water under the bridge (or over-topping, soon to be breached levee, as the case may be)! Still posting a dozen times a day while producing $800k/yr. Impressive! Sorry to hear that literally all your firms will be either bankrupt or absorbed by banks before this autumn is out. God, I love LPL!!! Making money hand over fist by harvesting your former clients. Here’s to all you big talking wirehouse pikers out there! I love you, I really, really do!
[/quote]
And you think LPL will be independant forever? Not likely.
[/quote]
Really?
Perhaps not forever.
But how about you show us some of the headlines about how LPL has been forced to raise capital or put itself up for sale because of losses on poor investment decisions?
What? Can’t find them? hmmmmmm
Thats strange, isnt the market cap for MS larger than Wachovia? Am I incorrect on that or does that not make a difference in a deal like this?[quote=YHWY]Great to see all the regular dozen or so wirehouse guys still here after all this time and water under the bridge (or over-topping, soon to be breached levee, as the case may be)! Still posting a dozen times a day while producing $800k/yr. Impressive! Sorry to hear that literally all your firms will be either bankrupt or absorbed by banks before this autumn is out. God, I love LPL!!! Making money hand over fist by harvesting your former clients. Here’s to all you big talking wirehouse pikers out there! I love you, I really, really do! [/quote]
And you think LPL will be independant forever? Not likely.
Thats strange, isnt the market cap for MS larger than Wachovia? Am I incorrect on that or does that not make a difference in a deal like this?[/quote][quote=nestegg] [quote=YHWY]Great to see all the regular dozen or so wirehouse guys still here after all this time and water under the bridge (or over-topping, soon to be breached levee, as the case may be)! Still posting a dozen times a day while producing $800k/yr. Impressive! Sorry to hear that literally all your firms will be either bankrupt or absorbed by banks before this autumn is out. God, I love LPL!!! Making money hand over fist by harvesting your former clients. Here’s to all you big talking wirehouse pikers out there! I love you, I really, really do! [/quote]
And you think LPL will be independant forever? Not likely.
Just saying anyone that thinks anything is forever or is a certainty in this day and age is sadly mistaken....there were alot of smug MER reps just a week ago.
I didnt say that was the case...but I would expect consolidation among the Indy's as well...I doubt they will need to raise capital...they ahve low overhead, you guys pay all the expenses lol.
Honestly I don't know alot about LPL other than the fact that I did bring in 4 accts from LPL in the last month...about 5mm in assets not too shabby :)
Liar
Now that I look back, whatever firm you work for Nestegg, I just transferred 6 accts, 6mm…not to shabby.
Boy it feels good to be at Jones right now!!!
Eye-
You are offically the first guy to make that "I-told-you-so" statement. I know it may feel like sense of relief for us, but keep in mind, wealth management at all of the major firms is doing well. Had those units been independant, or spun off, they would be just fine. It's the fact that they are associated with their parents right now that is hurting them. So do us a favor, don't dig a hole for us right now. Nobody needs to hear it. And by the way, most clients don't care about who bought Merrill or Morgan, but more importantly, what does MY account look like? I don't know about you, but the Capital Income Builder in my portfolios is doing just as poorly as the one's inside Merrill accounts. We're all in this together....I was doing okay today until you brought up Capital Income Builder…
It's so good to see that "Mr. Sunshine" has crawled out from under his rock to make his always positive outlook available for all to see.......Great to see all the regular dozen or so wirehouse guys still here after all this time and water under the bridge (or over-topping, soon to be breached levee, as the case may be)! Still posting a dozen times a day while producing $800k/yr. Impressive! Sorry to hear that literally all your firms will be either bankrupt or absorbed by banks before this autumn is out. God, I love LPL!!! Making money hand over fist by harvesting your former clients. Here’s to all you big talking wirehouse pikers out there! I love you, I really, really do!
The only thing good at Jones right now is that our stock price isn’t tumbling. I’m still getting lots of Chicken Little phone calls. Our brilliant analysts just moved AIG to a sell on, what, Tuesday. How much CIT Group, LEH bonds, or GMAC Stupidnotes do you still have on your books that are worth pennies on the dollar? The best call they’ve made since I’ve been here has been to sell BUD NOW!!!
I agree with B24. Let's not kick the guys while they're down. An AGE/WB/MS combo would be a powerful competitor.I was doing okay today until you brought up Capital Income Builder…
It was just an example. After all, Merrill IS the largest holder of American Funds (yes, even more than the Green Machine).
I have Cap Inc Bldr too, just like you guys, and I work for MER. I have to say, I just don’t get too excited over all this. It’s not that I’m stupid. I just have to focus, and my clients are my focus. I’m not one of those MER guys that don’t call, and I see everyone calling around here, so I don’t know where those brokers are that aren’t on the phones.
Although I have made it plainly clear I am not sorry about leaving EDJ nor do I like them much (still am not and do not), I do feel a certain connection to all brokers with the market movements. It's hard wherever you are. I'm sure EDJ guys are calling their clients too. I am a "wait see" person. What I have told my clients is that if we are not being told the truth, we are moving. I have had no negatives in any of my converstations when I told them that. I'll take my last bonus which was close to 1/8th a million dollars all in (I spent a little), put it with my EDJ settlement check (don't have yet), and add my retention bonus to it (hope it's good). Should help me through the rainy days ahead if they pop up. If I have to move, I'll take a big check and go to a firm that can compete in the years ahead. ttfn,[quote=B24]Eye-
You are offically the first guy to make that "I-told-you-so" statement. I know it may feel like sense of relief for us, but keep in mind, wealth management at all of the major firms is doing well. Had those units been independant, or spun off, they would be just fine. It's the fact that they are associated with their parents right now that is hurting them. So do us a favor, don't dig a hole for us right now. Nobody needs to hear it. And by the way, most clients don't care about who bought Merrill or Morgan, but more importantly, what does MY account look like? I don't know about you, but the Capital Income Builder in my portfolios is doing just as poorly as the one's inside Merrill accounts. We're all in this together....[/quote] +1. At times like this, these forums get very testy when we should be pulling together and supporting one another because no one else is going to. There is my nice post for the year.[quote=bspears]Now that I look back, whatever firm you work for Nestegg, I just transferred 6 accts, 6mm…not to shabby. ;)[/quote]
Ummm so that made sense…
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