Google.. This bird is cooked

I meant companies…

Thanks for the indepth analysis… I wait anxiously for your next enlightening post.

It’s a buying opportunity before the train leaves the station.

Don’t forget, “click fraud” can evaporate 30% off those revenue numbers. A

miss is a miss is a miss. How can analysts use a 26% tax bracket on a

company earning $1.92 billion. CFO should be fired. Everyone got it wrong.

Chart was damaged too. IMO.

Another day or 2 and the margin clerks have more power than the anal-ists.

I'm with the original poster...I've thought for awhile that GOOG smelled like 1999-2000 all over again.  P/E in the stratosphere, etc.  Sure, there are earnings, but any miss with those valuations, and we see the kind of reaction we've seen yesterday and today.

and of course, the analysts are hard at it defending their price targets...

Are you guys kidding me?  I don't own google, but it was down to 375 in after hours, and if I had the cahonas I would of picked some up in my IRA...I knew there would be folks buying it back...it opened at 389 today and is sitting around 395.  But then I would have dumped it.

Volitility can be a good thing, if you are on the right side of it

For an IRA????? At 130 billion I dont see it as a steady blue chip or long term investment.

Noggin sometimes I write with a little bit of shazam. Hope you dont mind.

Skee what is IMO? Amazing that the company had the wrong tax bracket. WOW, that really makes you question a potential earning correction over the next year or two. Just like the good old times in 2000.

In My Opinion…but you really should focus on your studying shouldn’t you?

All I can say is "BOOOYAHHH, Jim"

Yeah, he’d better put a post-it on his forehead tonight, for sure.

[quote=7GOD63]

One has to love Wall Street who has buy, buy, buy on this company. Sounds a lot like 2000 to me.... AMAZING.

[/quote]

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ud?s=GOOG

Here's the info on the ratings on Google. I'm not sure it's fair to say "Wall Street" has a "buy, buy, buy" on it. Check it for yourself.

Listen, I’ll be the first to admit I goofed last year passing up on GOOG.

Instead I held YHOO. But I’m over it. I still won’t take a chance with that

click fraud overhang.



In fair disclosure, I do own a mutual fund with GOOG as the biggest

position.

Goldman Sachs analyst Anthony Noto told clients to buy the stock at $380 to ride the run-up to $500, his 12-month price target. He said that he's still predicting 20% to 25% earnings growth from 2007 to 2010.

The quarter was "not as bad as you think," according to a Jefferies & Co. report. "Buy on the pullback," the analyst suggested.

Prudential's Mark Rowen also suggested using the weakness as an opportunity to buy the stock, and went as far as raising his price target to $500 from $400.

Bear Stearns analyst Robert Peck kept his rating at outperform and his price target at $550. He called the sell-off in the stock an "overreaction," and recommended buying on the pullback.

If you liked LU @ $74, you're going to LOVE it @ $35!!!

Sound familiar to some of us????     

[quote=exEJIR]

If you liked LU @ $74, you're going to LOVE it @ $35!!!

Sound familiar to some of us????     

[/quote]

Bought it between 35-40, took losses between 18-20 and got almost everyone out.  It was a series of many painful conversations, but turned out to be a great move to take our lumps and move on.  That's when I really started to believe in technical analysis.

[quote=joedabrkr][quote=exEJIR]

If you liked LU @ $74, you're going to LOVE it @ $35!!!

Sound familiar to some of us????     

[/quote]

Bought it between 35-40, took losses between 18-20 and got almost everyone out.  It was a series of many painful conversations, but turned out to be a great move to take our lumps and move on.  That's when I really started to believe in technical analysis.

[/quote]

See how people take away different lessons? I didn't get caught up in LU because the fundamentals were lacking. Now, if I could ever find a TA guy who could answer a question in a straight forward manner AND used ink instead of pencil to make those all important lines on the chart , who knows, I could be converted.  <?:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />

[quote=mikebutler222][quote=joedabrkr][quote=exEJIR]

If you liked LU @ $74, you're going to LOVE it @ $35!!!

Sound familiar to some of us????     

[/quote]

Bought it between 35-40, took losses between 18-20 and got almost everyone out.  It was a series of many painful conversations, but turned out to be a great move to take our lumps and move on.  That's when I really started to believe in technical analysis.

[/quote]

See how people take away different lessons? I didn't get caught up in LU because the fundamentals were lacking. Now, if I could ever find a TA guy who could answer a question in a straight forward manner AND used ink instead of pencil to make those all important lines on the chart , who knows, I could be converted.  <?:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />

[/quote]

I understand what you mean mike.  I used to feel the same way.  It's as much an art as a science.  You must adapt as the chart changes.....that's why we still use pencils. ;-)

[quote=7GOD63]

For an IRA????? At 130 billion I dont see it as a steady blue chip or long term investment.

Noggin sometimes I write with a little bit of shazam. Hope you dont mind.

Skee what is IMO? Amazing that the company had the wrong tax bracket. WOW, that really makes you question a potential earning correction over the next year or two. Just like the good old times in 2000.

[/quote]

Hey dipsh*t,

If you are going to buy and sell stocks over short periods of time (aka under 13 months) it is BETTER to do it in an IRA to avoid SHORT TERM CAPITAL GAINS.  Even better in a Roth if your income is within range.

Newbies.

[quote=BankFC][quote=7GOD63]

For an IRA????? At 130 billion I dont see it as a steady blue chip or long term investment.

Noggin sometimes I write with a little bit of shazam. Hope you dont mind.

Skee what is IMO? Amazing that the company had the wrong tax bracket. WOW, that really makes you question a potential earning correction over the next year or two. Just like the good old times in 2000.

[/quote]

Hey dipsh*t,

If you are going to buy and sell stocks over short periods of time (aka under 13 months) it is BETTER to do it in an IRA to avoid SHORT TERM CAPITAL GAINS.  Even better in a Roth if your income is within range.

Newbies.

[/quote]

Harsh words BankFC.

Yeah...maybe I should've worded it a little nicer...I do apologize.

Long day my friends.

I know the feeling.  Just took me by suprise, you’re normally a little more diplomatic.  Hope tommorrow’s a better day for you.

I appreciate it.

[quote=BankFC]

Yeah...maybe I should've worded it a little nicer...I do apologize.

Long day my friends.

[/quote]

By the way smartarse LONG TERM is 12 months and 1 day if your going to go and take potshots at people at least get your facts right......

Thanks for the guidance. I have a long way to go... So many little tricks of the trade... For sure one learing this stuff can really help them selves in the long term...

Joe,

Take a pill man.  I had a cocktail last night and it was all better  , plus I did apologize to the kid...

I actually meant to put a 12 there, you know, the button beside the 3...but regardless, it doesn't matter anyway.  I got my point across.

7god63,

I appreciate your attitude.  I had to learn the hard way right out of college, and I have very little patience for new guys that don't take the time to learn basic concepts.  I have a feeling you might not be one of those guys.  I hope anyway. 

Do most people here mess around with their retirement account to avoid capital gains? AMZN following the trend of google... 

Yeah I am a young pup in this industry. About to take the 7,66 and what ever else. I have been around the block so I know what it’s like to deal with a rookie.

Hey so you did well although you started after college? I say this since many hammer the super rookies or new college grads.

I do all my individual stock trading in my IRA.  I have a 401K, and it’s in MFs of course.  In my taxable account I have a few MF (bought at NAV of course ), some IShares, and I also on a non-publicly traded REIT.

Also I understand the 12 month rule with capital gains, but I just though as the IRA as a safety net… Do not mess with it type stuff. I talk to a lot of union guys who have been changing portfolio daily. To me that is risky to try to time the market. If and when there is a down turn they may think tomorrow will be a better day (like a gambler) and get wacked day after day.

I do my personal individual stock trading in my taxable account and have MFs and Reits in my IRA/Simple IRA.   I can take advantage of the cap gains rate of 15% and if need be offset capital losses with cap gains. Tax wise it works for me since my husband and I are both self employed and are always having to work the angles.

Everyone is different.  No hard and fast rule.

I actually started WHILE IN college, as an intern.  Been studying this business since then (important, I spent much more time learning the "business" than studying the market, understand?).

It's been an uphill battle (the age thing), but for the most part, I have gotten past it.  When you are younger than EVERYONE you sell to, you must:

1.  Own it, don't hide it.  Don't display it on your forehead, but if asked, be honest and move on.  You can use this to your advantage...I have a 2 minute story I tell (if needed) that takes the entire issue off the table. 

2.  Know as much as you can.  Devour information.  Be articulate.  The only reason age is an issue is because people equate age with inexperience.  The only reason inexperience is an issue is because that equates with lack of knowledge, which in turn means NO VALUE.

So, in a confident manner, show folks your ability.  For example, I explain, in a very easy to understand way, the concepts of beta and alpha, and how they relate to evaluating a portfolio.  These are easy concepts to learn, and they come off as impressive to most clients.  That's one example.

3.  Look the part.  Lean always towards conservative.  Shave.  Buy decent shoes, a nice belt (one that wasn't bought at American Eagle), keep your hair cut, etc.  You don't need expensive suits, I don't care what anybody on here says.  Any decent tailored or well fitting suit will be fine. 

4.  Do about 1/4 of the talking.  It's harder to say something stupid when you aren't talking.  Stay away from subjects you are uneducated on. 

Those are some of the things that have helped me.  My free gift of the day.   

Babbling,

What do you mean "I can take advantage of the cap gains rate of 15% and if need be offset capital losses with cap gains."

I understand what your saying, but my point was if I am trading stocks held less than 12 months, I am doing it inside my IRA to avoid SHORT TERM CAP GAINS, which, as you know, is not 15%, but is taxed as ordinary income.

If you are holding stocks longer than 12 months, that's fine.  15% tax isn't the worst thing in the world.  But I am quite a bit younger than you, and I am buying and selling concentrated positions in the short term (aka speculating, and doing darn well I might add), and I'd rather not pay any taxes on it, let alone ordinary income.

So your point, while not untrue, is a little inaccurate in reference to the point being made.

Nice feedback. For sure that is great advice for anyone in the industry.

[quote=BankFC]I do all my individual stock trading in my IRA. [/quote]

I used to do the same thing, but not anymore. I tell clients to hold stocks in a taxable account and bonds and bond funds in a retirement accounts, because stocks produce capital gains and dividends, which are taxed at a much lower rate than the interest paid on bonds.

When stocks are in a retirement account, and the money is withdrawn, it’s taxed as regular income, as if it had been earned on the job. As a result, you are giving away an important tax break.

Stocks have a much lower after-tax return inside a retirement account than they do outside, with no reduction in risk. If stocks are held outside the retirement account, Uncle sam, in effect, shares the risk by allowing a tax deduction for any losses.

I'm no CFP or CPA, but this is why I get paid the big bucks.  Asset location is as important as asset allocation.

Good point, but only applicable if you are referring to a traditional IRA, not a Roth, which is the BEST place to trade individual stocks.

Good point, my clients don’t qualify for a Roth. Thanks.

Skee, don't get touchy just because I pointed out a fact.

LOL, I'm sure EVERY client you have is ineligible to contribute to a Roth, and you are a multi-million dollar producer. 

There, feel better?

[quote=BankFC]

I actually started WHILE IN college, as an intern.  Been studying this business since then (important, I spent much more time learning the "business" than studying the market, understand?).

It's been an uphill battle (the age thing), but for the most part, I have gotten past it.  When you are younger than EVERYONE you sell to, you must:

1.  Own it, don't hide it.  Don't display it on your forehead, but if asked, be honest and move on.  You can use this to your advantage...I have a 2 minute story I tell (if needed) that takes the entire issue off the table. 

2.  Know as much as you can.  Devour information.  Be articulate.  The only reason age is an issue is because people equate age with inexperience.  The only reason inexperience is an issue is because that equates with lack of knowledge, which in turn means NO VALUE.

So, in a confident manner, show folks your ability.  For example, I explain, in a very easy to understand way, the concepts of beta and alpha, and how they relate to evaluating a portfolio.  These are easy concepts to learn, and they come off as impressive to most clients.  That's one example.

3.  Look the part.  Lean always towards conservative.  Shave.  Buy decent shoes, a nice belt (one that wasn't bought at American Eagle), keep your hair cut, etc.  You don't need expensive suits, I don't care what anybody on here says.  Any decent tailored or well fitting suit will be fine. 

4.  Do about 1/4 of the talking.  It's harder to say something stupid when you aren't talking.  Stay away from subjects you are uneducated on. 

Those are some of the things that have helped me.  My free gift of the day.   

[/quote]

I've been working to brush up my image, so I shave every week whether I need it or not. ;-)

Now if you could just incorporate that showering routine in, you'd be good to go!!

[quote=BankFC]

Skee, don’t get touchy just because I pointed out a fact.

LOL, I’m sure EVERY client you have is ineligible to contribute to a Roth,

and you are a multi-million dollar producer.

There, feel better?

[quote=BankFC]

Babbling,

What do you mean "I can take advantage of the cap gains rate of 15% and if need be offset capital losses with cap gains."

I understand what your saying, but my point was if I am trading stocks held less than 12 months, I am doing it inside my IRA to avoid SHORT TERM CAP GAINS, which, as you know, is not 15%, but is taxed as ordinary income.

If you are holding stocks longer than 12 months, that's fine.  15% tax isn't the worst thing in the world.  But I am quite a bit younger than you, and I am buying and selling concentrated positions in the short term (aka speculating, and doing darn well I might add), and I'd rather not pay any taxes on it, let alone ordinary income.

So your point, while not untrue, is a little inaccurate in reference to the point being made.

[/quote]

Sorry I didn't realize you were talking exclusively about short term capital gains.

As you pointed out, you do mostly short term position movements in your IRA and are speculating. Being older and not as active a trader in my account, I tend to hold a stock for at least a year or longer unless it is a loser then I sell before 1 year.  By the 15% I mean that if I sell a stock with LTCG I can have it taxed at 15% instead of ordinary income rates which is ultimately the result in an IRA.  You lose that tax advantage of the lower cap gains rate.  Whether that low rate will continue is a question but for now I use that strategy.

If the stock is a loser outside of the IRA I can offset some cap gains from one of my our side line businesses/hobbies (buying, refurbishing and selling hot rods and classic cars). Take a lemon and make lemonade .  Or we can do wash  sales and take some tax breaks.  Naturally we don't want any loser stocks, but if it happens we can control the consequences.

Like I said. Everyone has different needs.

[quote=skeedaddy] [quote=BankFC]

Skee, don't get touchy just because I pointed out a fact.

LOL, I'm sure EVERY client you have is ineligible to contribute to a Roth,
and you are a multi-million dollar producer. 

There, feel better?

[/quote]

Pretty typical reaction from a rookie FC at a bank...after he learns the proper
way to handle OPM!
[/quote]

Actually, you were the one who needed to pump up his little ego with the above comment about your clients.  I am hardly a rookie, but I have a feeling you might be...

[quote=babbling looney][quote=BankFC]

Babbling,

What do you mean "I can take advantage of the cap gains rate of 15% and if need be offset capital losses with cap gains."

I understand what your saying, but my point was if I am trading stocks held less than 12 months, I am doing it inside my IRA to avoid SHORT TERM CAP GAINS, which, as you know, is not 15%, but is taxed as ordinary income.

If you are holding stocks longer than 12 months, that's fine.  15% tax isn't the worst thing in the world.  But I am quite a bit younger than you, and I am buying and selling concentrated positions in the short term (aka speculating, and doing darn well I might add), and I'd rather not pay any taxes on it, let alone ordinary income.

So your point, while not untrue, is a little inaccurate in reference to the point being made.

[/quote]

Sorry I didn't realize you were talking exclusively about short term capital gains.

As you pointed out, you do mostly short term position movements in your IRA and are speculating. Being older and not as active a trader in my account, I tend to hold a stock for at least a year or longer unless it is a loser then I sell before 1 year.  By the 15% I mean that if I sell a stock with LTCG I can have it taxed at 15% instead of ordinary income rates which is ultimately the result in an IRA.  You lose that tax advantage of the lower cap gains rate.  Whether that low rate will continue is a question but for now I use that strategy.

If the stock is a loser outside of the IRA I can offset some cap gains from one of my our side line businesses/hobbies (buying, refurbishing and selling hot rods and classic cars). Take a lemon and make lemonade .  Or we can do wash  sales and take some tax breaks.  Naturally we don't want any loser stocks, but if it happens we can control the consequences.

Like I said. Everyone has different needs.

[/quote]

Little woman,

Do you understand the concepts of tax deferral and compounding? You don't give real live people advice, do you?

Dirk, I think it is painfully clear from other threads that BL (among others) cannot grasp the essential arithmetic necessary to understand the magnitude of compounding.

No wonder the regulators and the public at large don't get it...people in the money business are unable to get their heads around the concept.

You guys are idiots. You seem to think that annuties are the answer to everything.

If you have a real business, not just one that survives by selling annuities to everyone, but one that generates income from other sources and that includes, captial gains, you need to use all the tax tricks you can. That includes offsetting cap gains with loses, if you can.  You can't do that in an IRA which is what my post was about. An annuity isn't going to help with current income taxes. 

Sure, you can invest in a qualifed retirement plan but if you need more relief then you use other strategies.   A few years a go we sold a business and the building for  a big gain.  You better believe we used every strategy we could. We did a 1031 exchange. Tell me how an annuity or an IRA would have been a better move.....other than for you as the agent.  What would have been your recommendation to avoid paying taxes through the nose if I were your client?

Morons

[quote=SonnyClips]You are very classy dirk. Very classy indeed. Your the type of guy that pops the top of the Beercan for your lady, true class. Your the kind of guy that eats the burnt bratwurst and gives the undercooked one to yer lady at the Bar Be Que at your brother-in-laws house over on Cermak on Pulaski Day. Your idea of a compliment to yer lady is..."Honey thats great that you don't sweat much for a fat girl." [/quote]

Sweet home, Chicago.

Nice. Its obvious that you aren’t giving advice to real life people.



It seems all you do is sell annuities. You already stated you don’t want to

bother with stocks and bonds and it is too much trouble to continually

monitor client’s accounts. It is all about the money you can make and to

hell with actually giving the client some real advice.



Your feeble attempts to offend my “delicate sensibilites” are pathetic.

[QUOTE]

Nice. Its obvious that you aren’t giving advice to

real life people.

It seems all you do is sell annuities. You already stated you don’t want

to bother with stocks and bonds and it is too much trouble to continually

monitor client’s accounts. It is all about the money you can make

and to hell with actually giving the client some real advice.

Your feeble attempts to offend my “delicate sensibilites” are pathetic.

[/quote]

BL, it’s clear from your posts that you don’t even approach the level where I operate.  Unless you’re just putting us all on, you are clueless on the subject of tax efficiency.

[quote=Philo Kvetch]BL, it's clear from your posts that you don't even approach the level where I operate.  Unless you're just putting us all on, you are clueless on the subject of tax efficiency.[/quote]

It'll be hard to do, but we should really just ingore this broad.

[quote=babbling looney]

You guys are idiots. You seem to think that annuties are the answer to everything. [/quote]

Based on his last post I'm going on a dirk-free diet. He's crossed the line. In fact, I think I'll ignore both of the screen names he uses here....

[quote=mikebutler222][quote=babbling looney]

You guys are idiots. You seem to think that annuties are the answer to everything. [/quote]

Based on his last post I'm going on a dirk-free diet. He's crossed the line. In fact, I think I'll ignore both of the screen names he uses here....

[/quote]

Please define the line, jobhopper.

[quote=babbling looney]Nice.  Its obvious that you aren't giving advice to real life people.

It seems all you do is sell annuities. You already stated you don't want to
bother with stocks and bonds and it is too much trouble to continually
monitor client's accounts. It is all about the money you can make and to
hell with actually giving the client some real advice.

Your feeble attempts to offend my "delicate sensibilites" are pathetic. [/quote]

You've already admitted that annuities have their place. Are you suggesting that annuities should only be sold by people who don't sell them that much? Sounds like female logic to me.

Hey if something says something that bothers you then just dont reply to them.. People do this to me all the time. :)

Hey remember 2000 with .com.. Everything got wacked day 1 and then day two was somewhat stable then it was down hill from there. Google droped 40 then held strong and now may drop some more. Time will tell.

Cheers

I’m a buyer at $300.

Only what 85 billion at that point. A steal for a company with so much to offer.      Here are some industry numbers.

YHOO

GOOG

AMZN

I’m a buyer at $300.

Why in the hell would you buy Google when there are so many other good stocks.  Buy off previous support or buy on a break out like SBUX.  Look at FSL.  THere is another breakout.  Risk to reward is so much better with so many other stocks.  

Just my opinion. 

I’m already long SBUX, up about 26% so far. I usually play breakouts, but

ocassionally I will play the value card. I think GOOG will be included in the

S&P and I miss my YHOO. FSL looks higher. Thanks.

[quote=skeedaddy]I'm already long SBUX, up about 26% so far. I usually play breakouts, but
ocassionally I will play the value card. I think GOOG will be included in the
S&P and I miss my YHOO. FSL looks higher. Thanks. [/quote]

FWIW GOOG looks ugly on my chart no real sign of support yet.  Good luck to ya.

This is crazy in my opinion but LEGG has GOOG in their VALUE portfolio.   

[quote=Malcolm]

This is crazy in my opinion but LEGG has GOOG in their VALUE portfolio.   

[/quote]

You mean in their value fund? If so, that's the same "value" fund that did great guns in the 1996-2000 growth market by buying names like CSCO at unreal valuations and calling them "value" plays.

That's the fund.  What a joke.

FWIW GOOG looks ugly on my chart no real sign of support yet.  Good luck to ya.

The technical analysis that I use has an avoid, in big red letters.

"Avoid the stock.
If you are Long; close position or monitor stock closely."

They are usually right-on in their analysis.

This weekend’s Barrons cover story is going to trash Google. This might be

the end of the selling pressure. Let’s see the reaction.

For only 100 billion you can get a wonderful deal on GOOG. Still unsure what essential product they offer? I like em and momentum is awesome so maybe there is some money to be made?

MSFT and CSCO have done nothing over the past 3-4 years. Market cap is like 200 to 300 billion. Tough for the bigger companies to really have big increases? At least they have an essential product. Can't run computer with out operating software. Backbone of internet is routers and home networks are good.

“Momentum is awesome?”  Would you explain what you mean to me by that? 

Honestly I am far from an expert as many of you know. Over the past 7 years I have been active with the market. In 2000 there was nothing, but momentum for a ton of stocks that did not even have earnings.

Look at AApl and GOOG. They are awesome companies, but momentum has to be a factor. Now GOOG has lost steam. Maybe for a short time, but the momentum has slowed a bit. For at least a day that is.

Throw in the massive amount of money generated from the war and home equity. There is a large amount of money funding the GOOG, APPL and other momentum. Cheers to the day!

SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - Shares of Web search leader Google Inc. -- off 24 percent from highs set last month -- could face a further 50 percent decline, Barron's said in the financial weekly's February 13 edition.

Barron's scenario for a fall in Google's stock is based on speculating about what may happen if mounting competition or fraud by users of its Google's ad-buying system led to a 20 percent shortfall in bullish analysts' 2006 revenue estimates.

The weekly uses a back-of-the-envelope calculation to show how a 20 percent revenue miss could cascade into a 30 percent profit shortfall. Such a drop could then lead to a decline in the price-to-earnings multiple of the stock to 30 times earnings from the present P/E ratio of 41, it said.

"That would make the stock worth $188, versus its recent $360," Barron's reported. The stock traded at levels above $471 on January 11, but closed at $362.61 on Friday on Nasdaq.

The story recites the usual litany of threats to Google's business -- potential competition from Yahoo Inc. and Microsoft Corp. and the vulnerability to Google's advertising franchise from "click fraud" fake ad transactions. And it criticizes the wide use of employee stock compensation.

Barron's quotes several Google bears -- two Wall Street analysts with "sell" ratings on the stock, bearish investment strategist Fred Hickey and former Merrill Lynch Internet analyst Henry Blodget, who a month ago laid out a case for Google falling to $100 on his InternetOutsider blog.

The weekly also sees Google in growing conflict with book publishers, cable companies and telephone companies.

Copyright 2006 Reuters

[quote=skeedaddy]This weekend's Barrons cover story is going to trash Google. This might be the end of the selling pressure.  [/quote]

Huh? Fair or not, Barron's trashing a stock usually doesn't stop selling pressure, it increases it.

As we speak GOOG is down another $18, 5%. All I can say is "BOOYAH JIM"

Glad I shorted this bird…

[quote=mikebutler222]

Huh? Fair or not, Barron’s trashing a stock

usually doesn’t stop selling pressure, it increases it.