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As Long As Central Banks Don't Sell Market Has Upside

As Long As Central Banks Don't Sell Market Has Upside

There is now ample ammunition for the markets to rise.

The Fed compared their $4 trillion bond buying binge to a 9% rate cut. That means that their near zero short term rates plus their -9% long term rates are pretty stimulative. Now that markets have broken out that gives ample ammunition for markets to rise.

Fed Cut Rates To Effectively Negative 9%

The Fed had a study earlier this year that tried to compare certain policy outcomes. The Fed said in that piece that if they were not able to have "optimal control" to lower rates by 9% they could instead buy $4T of longer term assets.

We know the Fed's balance sheet has ballooned to over $4T so we think it's safe to say the equivalent Fed Funds rate is -9%.

The Fed terms their current holding position as "accommodative."

If we add the ECB's near $3T in balances that would add another 7% rate cut.

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