General argument: Shorting the US equities market(s) (SPY)(DIA)(QQQ) on the basis that the market can't sustain its current clip is a poor bet when there isn't an immediate catalyst on the horizon.
Overview
With the way the stock market and high-yield bond markets have been going up - with very little volatility along the way - it begs the question whether the level of complacency observed in the market is a consequence of the perception of central banks will not allow financial markets to become overly chaotic. When central banks have such profound oversight, the risk appetite among investors is keen on increasing.
I think most would agree that forward returns expectations in the stock and bond markets are well below historical norms. Even if the markets were at middle-of-the-road valuations, I would expect this to be the case. As countries develop, their demographics age, people consume less,…