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Gray Swans And Populism: Navigating A World Gone Mad

Why are the markets celebrating?

This isn't sour grapes with regard to Trump's surprise win in the race for the Oval Office: I simply can't figure out why the brazen billionaire's unlikely victory is being treated as a reason to celebrate by backing up the proverbial truck when it comes to US equities (SPY).

It is by no means clear how this is ultimately going to play out and the assumption that Trump tax breaks and the repatriation of profits held offshore is going to bolster stocks by encouraging more buybacks and dividends seems a bit presumptuous at such an early stage in the game. Earlier on Thursday I took a look at some of the forecasts for the S&P and for the market in general and I've got to tell you, there's too much going on here to simply adopt the premise that Trump is good and that the anti-establishment line being promoted by… Read More …

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